Sea level rise....5 years 1'/30cm rise.....armageddon?

brutus's picture
brutus started the topic in Monday, 27 Dec 2021 at 10:10am

came across an article about the collapse of one of Antartica's ice shelves. There is scenario that within 5 years there could be another collapse which will suddenly increase sea Levels by a 1'-30cm. The group of scientists who are claiming this is possible, a very reputable group called the American Geophysical Union....even if it takes 10 years.....this is probably the greatest threat to our current civilization...and its about to happen!
So questions are , why isn't there a reaction from Governments , what are the timelines on the sea level rise when the collapse happens ( do we have a day a week a month) , what's the plan , is this the end of surfing as we know it........??????
If you have interest in the upcoming doomsday scenario.....read the links on the article......so interesting to see the science and how we are only really learning about the Antarctica's in the last couple of years!

https://www.science.org/content/article/ice-shelf-holding-back-keystone-...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 1:45pm

Zen that's because the Earth rotates, isn't a perfect sphere and there are land masses in the way. Add in those fresh water inputs and also expanding volume of the sea owing to the increase in temperature and you'll get little differences in rising rates. Remember some areas of the ocean are warming quicker than others.

It would even out if the Earth stopped spinning and you took away the sun/moon etc but that's not real life.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 1:47pm

Now that the public has been trained to accept government control over their freedoms, how long till we start following China’s lead ( again) and start declaring restrictions on driving rights to alleviate pollution/ climate mitigation?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10346999/Chinas-Covid-19-surge-...

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 1:51pm

zen in the world's oceans the "jumping around" is not random it follows the persistent patterns of the local climate. The difference between the surf coast and the east coast, in my understanding, is largely due to the EAC. This transfers a huge amount of heat causing surrounding waters to expand which raises sea level. It actually reached us a couple of weeks ago and the water temperature rose several degrees overnight.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 1:56pm

Ok. well cheers guys. I was looking at it purely from the physical properties of water and disregarded the other variables. Kinda like equating flat earth with a flat swimming pool so probably not a good analogy.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 2:06pm

So if ice melts at the north pole we might see no to very little sea level rise in Australia, but if ice melts at Antartica we might see higher sea level rises than elsewhere?

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 2:21pm

No large ocean currents (the thermohaline conveyor) transfer huge volumes between the hemispheres. The disruption of this system by large amounts of freshwater from ice melt is a potential climate tipping point.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 2:50pm

Due to the large volumes of fresh entering the oceans, this will drastically slow the worlds currents/ocean conveyers.

The slower the currents, the less upwellings carrying krill and phytoplankton which are huge absorbers of carbon.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 2:51pm

Here's a good link Indo and Zen..

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/globalsl.html

Change in sea level since 1993.. Can see it's not equal across the Earth.

And here is the mean surface height chart (not change but average). "Topography of the mean sea surface in centimetres." Again not an equal distribution.

With that last chart you can see the elevated sea levels from warm western boundary currents like the EAC, Kuroshio, Gulf Stream, Aghulus etc.

zenagain's picture
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zenagain Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 2:56pm

Cheers Craig, that adds a little more clarity.

And as they say in your circles Fitzy- "no run, no fun" 'eh?

Almost prophetic.

brutus's picture
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brutus Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 4:10pm

Hi Zen , happy New year to you and Chihino...I remember seeing articles on there being slightly different levels of sea level rise on different parts of the planet.....as there are different levels between the Pacific and the Atlantic , because of density, check out https://www.psmsl.org/train_and_info/faqs/

It's a bit like down here there is less salt in the water so we make bds a tad wider/thicker , whereas bds for tropics can be leaner..........just remembered I make bds for guys in Israel where you float so much higher on the water ...guys that would ride 2 1/2 thick here , can ride 2 1/4.....

down here we get so much erosion because we get much bigger stronger swells and storm surges.....

been having a blast here , 2 hot days in a row, small waist high swell.....people every where , but had great fun...now back to misery for a week....looks like early May will be my ETA into japan..

zenagain wrote:

Ps- please don't refer me back to your NASA link. I read it thoroughly. While I don't dispute the science, and I'm certainly no climate change denier, none of those reasons given is static. Everyone of them is dynamic, moving, fluctuates and subject to change. Water will always move towards equilibrium, that cannot be disputed.

Anyway, all the best to you BB and MC too for 2022. Hope you're enjoying warm water waves. Freeeezing here.

brutus's picture
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brutus Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 4:14pm

Blowin , please blow off with your irrelevant subject matter ...the post is about Sea Level rise and we are having a rather informative discussion.....

Blowin wrote:

Now that the public has been trained to accept government control over their freedoms, how long till we start following China’s lead ( again) and start declaring restrictions on driving rights to alleviate pollution/ climate mitigation?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10346999/Chinas-Covid-19-surge-...

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 4:22pm

whats the movie that was done about the failing Gulf current....??

yeah you are 100% right about the Gulf current...more scary shit.....

https://www.dw.com/en/gulf-stream-system-threatens-collapse-study-finds/....

fitzroy-21 wrote:

Due to the large volumes of fresh entering the oceans, this will drastically slow the worlds currents/ocean conveyers.

The slower the currents, the less upwellings carrying krill and phytoplankton which are huge absorbers of carbon.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 4:28pm

zen, we had a fantastic run of surf through winter and spring. The area was locked down for the best period which meant absolute minimal crew in the water. We were getting real quality often 3-4 days a week. It finished early December with a couple of solid swells....since then, not much at all. I am quite glad to shift my focus and relax but I do feel sorry for all the people here in the hope of scoring decent waves during their holiday but who have had nothing much at all.

zenagain's picture
zenagain's picture
zenagain Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 4:38pm

Sounds awesome BB, I love your part of the world. Many fond memories of road tripping down the east coast with yours being the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

We've had an above average year of waves too, but it all came to a grinding halt mid December. But, snow season has started with a blast so time to search out those long powder lines and fluffy pillows.

This mornings surf check with the dog. -2°C and barely a ripple. Pretty though. All the very best to you for 2022. You too Blowy.

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 5:37pm
brutus wrote:

whats the movie that was done about the failing Gulf current....??

yeah you are 100% right about the Gulf current...more scary shit.....

https://www.dw.com/en/gulf-stream-system-threatens-collapse-study-finds/....

fitzroy-21 wrote:

Due to the large volumes of fresh entering the oceans, this will drastically slow the worlds currents/ocean conveyers.

The slower the currents, the less upwellings carrying krill and phytoplankton which are huge absorbers of carbon.

Not sure on any movie Brutus. Have seen and read a few doco's on the effect to oceans currents slowing. It is really scary. The domino effect on the oceans and ecosystems as well as the effect on land and weather, it's mind boggling.

The amount of carbon captured and stored by the oceans and it's ecosystems is incredible, mess with one, and the flow on effect is devastating.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 1 Jan 2022 at 5:43pm

Yep, if the Gulf Stream stops, the climate over towards UK and northern Europe will take a dive. It would become inhospitable and that's the thing with climate change, moving established cities and food belts from their current locations but to where?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Sunday, 2 Jan 2022 at 11:44am
andy-mac wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jan/02/wave-goodbye-the-battle-to...

The only solution to climate change is to build more stuff!