COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Blowin wrote:

Because the data isn’t subjective.

So you jettison the part of your argument that the restrictions are some sort of end-of-days rise of authoritarianism then? As that part is entirely subjective.

And you accept the conclusions reached by the Doherty Institute also?

I think the authoritarianism is off the charts.

Curfews, bloke….really?

VLocal - I hear you always putting Blowins figure of 99% plus down but have NEVER seen you write what you think the figure is .

You keep saying his figure is wrong . What is your view of the correct figure ?

Now don't tell me its too hard to work out , dependent upon start date or version of the disease . You have been commenting on this for months , looking at all the data and are a self confessed maths guru .

I really want to know !!!!!

Thanks for the concern crew, I'm pretty sure I'll be OK if it comes around. I know a lot more about it now. Got the sourdough in the fridge Blowin :) Part way there with the vaccine Blowin, tbh if I wasn't in medical condition I am I would really be in two minds, but I went with what my Docs advised. Unfortunately, other things going on at present - what a time for them, too. I'll be alright.

This is probably in poor taste (I have worse in reserve), but some fun practical epidemiology for everyone to try at home. Probably swarming with cookies, but you have to take chances in life.

https://plagueincgame.com/plague-inc-2020/

I called mine 'AFL'. Doesn't seem too virulent so far.

Thanks for the support JQ but it just made me laugh how quickly he went into insult mode.

VJ….I’m just trying to keep it real. People are conditioned to believe that Covid is an unprecedented, existential threat. It’s not. I’ll guarantee that many of the doom prophesisers are sitting down to an unhealthy meal, a durry or a beer. They’d be living in cities surrounded by car exhaust* and toxins. Swallowing micro plastics and eating food drenched in pesticides.

Life is dangerous and every single minute people die from reasons that have nothing to do with this overhyped virus. Melbourne had had 55( ?) deaths from Covid this year and probably 30,000 deaths from other causes. Don’t swallow the hype.

Stay safe and chill. Stress kills more people than Covid.

* Remember when people lost their shit because 450K people died WITH Covid in India? Here’s some more perspective…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/pollution-killed-nearly-17...

"The question is why does Blowin feel he can cite their data, but reject their conclusion?"

Because blowin doesn't do science. He just holds a position based on self interest, and then goes resurching "facts" to support his me-first attitude, while vigorously disputing anything or anyone who holds a different position based on reliable evidence.
He has feelpinions that have absolutely nothing to do with science. He's Otto from "A fish called Wanda" without any of the language skills.

"VJ….I’m just trying to keep it real." Geez, where's that coffee spitting GIF when you need it.

blindboy wrote:

Thanks for the support JQ but it just made me laugh how quickly he went into insult mode.

I didn’t insult you. I presented facts. You love evidence….you got evidence.

BTW….passive aggressive gets you full points in my book anyway, bloke.

Vic Local wrote:

"The question is why does Blowin feel he can cite their data, but reject their conclusion?"

Because blowin doesn't do science. He just holds a position based on self interest, and then goes resurching "facts" to support his me-first attitude, while vigorously disputing anything or anyone who holds a different position based on reliable evidence.
He has feelpinions that have absolutely nothing to do with science. He's Otto from "A fish called Wanda" without any of the language skills.

"VJ….I’m just trying to keep it real." Geez, where's that coffee spitting GIF when you need it.

That’s just the fear talking bloke. You’ll be OK. Go have a lie down…. Under your bed if that’s where you feel safest.

Honest question: Are you irrationally afraid of everything or just Covid? Have you tried locking yourself and your wife inside the house to save her from car crash / lightning strike / being crushed by the last piece of Skylab? Do you yell at the neighbours and call them selfish, dopey pricks when you see them eating takeaway food which may result in clogged arteries and clogged hospitals?

Cheers Blowin, I will do exactly that, stay safe and chill. It's best to stress less.

Btw I try to see the best in everyone on these forums, all have great insights at times. I won't agree with everyone all the time, but most at some times. Other than that, I try to shock you all with gore links or stuff that hopefully causes a bit of wtf

Yep. There it is. That old Facto class condescension and revulsion.

Anything but struggle street.

You’re concerned about correct gender pronouns whilst being disgusted by the working class. The perfect example of the modern union apparatchik.

Could you be any more Fake Left, bloke?

Oh no….I’ve blown your cover. Consider it special Ed for your comrade with the investment property AirBnB.

velocityjohnno wrote:

Cheers Blowin, I will do exactly that, stay safe and chill. It's best to stress less.

Btw I try to see the best in everyone on these forums, all have great insights at times. I won't agree with everyone all the time, but most at some times. Other than that, I try to shock you all with gore links or stuff that hopefully causes a bit of wtf

You do you mate. That’s where the good stuff is.

That “poem” is the high water mark of your personal creativity and originality.

You must be proud bloke.

I read choke bloke.

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. If a newer more deadly variant arrives we should upgrade. If doctors learn how to treat a disease they should be acknowledged. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
I’m not expecting to die in my 40’s am I?
Carry on...

Anyone know what the current hospitalisation rate is in Oz?

PS Just worked it out 7%, 1 in 14 chance of going to hospital if you test positive... hmm.

shoredump wrote:

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. If a newer more deadly variant arrives we should upgrade. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
I’m not expecting to die in my 40’s am I?
Carry on...

Why should the people who lost their lives last year be excluded shoredump? Were their lives not of value?

Current data is useful for deciding what to do now - and that is exactly what is happening.

shoredump wrote:

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
Carry on...

It wasn’t my call. I was direct quoting the Australian authority. I do agree though.

No one counts cumulative deaths for the flu. Air pollution, homicide, car crash , heart disease and malaria deaths dont cease and recommence with the New Year but that’s how they are quantified. It’s an annual count. That doesn’t thrill the doom fetish crowd though does it?

JQ wrote:

shoredump wrote:

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. If a newer more deadly variant arrives we should upgrade. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
I’m not expecting to die in my 40’s am I?
Carry on...

Why should the people who lost their lives last year be excluded shoredump? Were their lives not of value?

Current data is useful for deciding what to do now - and that is exactly what is happening.

I don’t understand why that diminishes their lives in your eyes JQ, it doesn’t to mine.
I just think we need to credit the doctors great work, they have reduced the death rate

It doesn’t diminish anyone’s death. That statement is so ridiculous that it’s attempt to use emotion to distort the debate is hilarious.

Guess it depends if you wanna carry on like a aggrieved twat or not really. Current data is valid for making decisions about what to do now (which as mentioned, is exactly what the gov is doing) for reflecting on the seriousness of the issue and making generalised statements, it's not fair to exclude a huge quantity of the data set.

Should we asses the seriousness of bubonic plague based on the fatality rate in the last 10 years?

Blowin wrote:

It doesn’t diminish anyone’s death. That statement is so ridiculous that it’s attempt to use emotion to distort the debate is hilarious.

Hypocrisy overload!

According to me?

Alright ….let’s do it according to you. Show me what you consider the creative high water mark of your many years contributing to these forums.

You’re always bragging about how easy stuff is to find on here with DuckDuckGo.

I am waiting with anticipation to see your creative impulse proudly on display.

edit, imgur wont post my image of two friends holding signs. One with im vaxed the other with im unvaxed but we are still friends etc.

What happens when pfizer jab and all the others wont beat all the new variants? I think if that happens humans are in for a shitty deal.

An interesting one to consider groundswell:

https://theconversation.com/will-coronavirus-really-evolve-to-become-les...

Thanks for the article JQ. so it doesnt look like its all doom and gloom thank jeebus.

Vic Local - common please give us your number , what is the delay ? I can't believe you haven't worked it out !!!!!!!

Hutchy 19 wrote:

Vic Local - common please give us your number , what is the delay ? I can't believe you haven't worked it out !!!!!!!

I've put up the accurate death rate from covid at least 5 times already. Not my fault you can't or won't read them
FFS Hutchy, it's not hard. Total deaths divided by total cases. Works out to be approximately 1.24%
If you have a problem with that, I can't help you.

Another optimistic piece.
https://thebulletin.org/2021/09/how-to-crush-the-variants-that-have-kept...

VicLocal - don't get grumpy .You write hundreds of posts and I haven't read them all . How hard was it to put up that figure again .

You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % .

If I studied hard for an exam I would not care which of those numbers I achieved . Both incredibly good !

So Covid survival rate is incredibly GOOD .

We have gone through hell , with lockdowns ( which don't work ) , pay Big Pharma Billions , lose Freedoms with governments mandating whatever they want , to combat a virus , that if you catch it , your survival is almost guaranteed .

I have also had to read all your bitching and bullying for almost nothing .

You will say lockdowns don't work because arseholes won't stay locked up . All over the world it happens as humans don't like being caged .

blindboy wrote:

Another optimistic piece.
https://thebulletin.org/2021/09/how-to-crush-the-variants-that-have-kept...

more good news , we now have Portugal at 85% vaccination rates , to the point there are no adults left to vaccinate....great to see nearly 100% vaccination in the elderly....and some incredible news about herd immunity ...all run by a Naval Vice Admiral......the Portuguese actually followed what the scientists recommended.....and as close to a normal life that can be expected, is alive and well in Portugal.....
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/portugal-has-nearly-run-out-of-pe...

Hutchy 19 wrote:

VicLocal - don't get grumpy .You write hundreds of posts and I haven't read them all . How hard was it to put up that figure again .

You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % .

If I studied hard for an exam I would not care which of those numbers I achieved . Both incredibly good !

So Covid survival rate is incredibly GOOD .

We have gone through hell , with lockdowns ( which don't work ) , pay Big Pharma Billions , lose Freedoms with governments mandating whatever they want , to combat a virus , that if you catch it , your survival is almost guaranteed .

I have also had to read all your bitching and bullying for almost nothing .

You will say lockdowns don't work because arseholes won't stay locked up . All over the world it happens as humans don't like being caged .

This moron is hook, line and sinker a blowin sycophant..just regurgitating blowin's drivel now...I guess when 99% of the room think you an idiot, you have little else left than hanging with the other idiots. Lol.

If my life depended on something, I would be happy to take 98.8 over 99.5 survival. Any normal person would.

Roadkill wrote:

This moron is hook, line and sinker a blowin sycophant..just regurgitating blowin's drivel now...I guess when 99% of the room think you an idiot, you have little else left than hanging with the other idiots. Lol.

I guess that could be likened to VL and your own cupping and lack of gag reflex technique...

And....

Roadkill "If my life depended on something, I would be happy to take 98.8 over 99.5 survival. Any normal person would."

W..T..F..? When it comes to your survival, you wouldn't take that extra .7%?

fitzroy-21 wrote:

Roadkill wrote:

This moron is hook, line and sinker a blowin sycophant..just regurgitating blowin's drivel now...I guess when 99% of the room think you an idiot, you have little else left than hanging with the other idiots. Lol.

I guess that could be likened to VL and your own cupping and lack of gag reflex technique...

And....

Roadkill "If my life depended on something, I would be happy to take 98.8 over 99.5 survival. Any normal person would."

W..T..F..? When it comes to your survival, you wouldn't take that extra .7%?

Well I wrote that wrong....

Any increase in survival is valid, as is any decrease in mortality rates equally valid.

Roadkill-"just regurgitating blowin's drivel now" . Not trying to play favourites .

I also regurgitated VicLocals drivel .

Hutchy 19 wrote:

Roadkill-"just regurgitating blowin's drivel now" . Not trying to play favourites .

I also regurgitated VicLocals drivel .

Lol. That's pretty funny. 10/10 for that reply.

"You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % ."

hard to believe isn't it?

all that hostility and hysterics...

the constant harrassment and self adulation...

I really was hoping for a more significant outcome, you know a difference worth fighting over, something worth all the harassment and big noting...

but nah, splitting hairs over a non event...

and in other great moments in vicvocal blatant bullshit and hyperbole...

' no one is talking about mandatory vaccines'

https://www.theage.com.au/national/australia-news-live-victoria-warned-o...

Yeh JQ why worry about a tiny difference like 7-800 deaths. Harden up mate, we need more callous bastards.

Hutchy 19 wrote:

You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % .

If I studied hard for an exam I would not care which of those numbers I achieved . Both incredibly good !

Hutchy that exam wasn't mathematics was it?? The difference between those two numbers is about 175,000 human beings. That's like the whole of Hobart's population 6 feet under. Just saying!!

No Gary and I have never got a 99% in anything and never aspired to .

In the world it is probably 1000 times your figure and in my suburb maybe 17 . Just saying . Every dealth is tragic . If we tallied up the road deaths and suicide deaths that might also be 1% .

No Gary and I have never got a 99% in anything and never aspired to .

I think your numbers could be out . .7% of covid deaths equaling 175000 ? Sounds way too high .Calling VicLocal to check !!!!

In the world it is probably 1000 times your figure and in my suburb maybe 17 . Just saying . Every dealth is tragic . If we tallied up the road deaths and suicide deaths that might also be 1% .

Gary . Blindboy had the below figure on another thread . He is not very smart so don't take it as gospel .

My response is also shown and this exchange should be on this thread .

BB - "7-800 extra deaths. Go the callous bastards! We can win this one."

You are a big DH BB !!!!!

You might think you can win this one . You have lost re the Fed shareholders and maybe your ego needs a boost .

To me this is not about winning or losing . I was pointing out that both a 98.8% and 99.5% survival rate from Covid were BOTH very good .

The costs of lockdowns are VERY high . Economically and socially with mental issues going through the roof .

I believe there are no winners . I hope we can work out the best way to minimalize the loses .

"If we tallied up the road deaths and suicide deaths that might also be 1% ."

Out by a factor of roughly 100.

It's close race today folks, Innumeracy has the rails and is gaining on the favourite Pure Ignorance with a close contest between Prejudice and Self-Interest for third while Well Informed and Common Sense bring up the rear as usual in the Swellnet Stakes.

You sure BB . I also did say might . I read a while ago that our road deaths in Vic were not far behind the covid deaths . I assumed that adding the deaths by suicide the figure MIGHT be close to the Covid deaths .

The road deaths in Vic in 2019 ( latest figures on TAC website ) were 256 . Times that by a 100 and it equals 25,600 deaths per year in Vic . Suicide deaths in 2020 in Vic were 713 . Times that by 100 and you get 71,300 .

Are you sure of your figures Mr Economics self confessed expert ?

" If we tallied up the road deaths and suicide deaths that might also be 1%" Of what? Drivers, humans, covid cases? Your honour I plead my innocence on the ancient legal principle of nonsense in/nonsense out. I made an honest effort to interpret the plaintiff's nonsense and yes, I may have followed him down the drain...but I DIDN'T start it!

BB What a poor excuse !!!!! Piss weak in the EXTREME . You knew we were talking Covid that is why you came up 7-800 deaths and called me callous .

You are a fucken liar "Your honour I plead my innocence on the ancient legal principle of nonsense in/nonsense out. I made an honest effort to interpret the plaintiff's nonsense and yes, I may have followed him down the drain"

If you are the type that bull shits when making a mistake and are unwilling to show hubris you are not worth me spending time trying to debate and hopefully for me to learn from .

I NEVER deliberately lie and always admit mistakes asap ( which I often make ) . Maybe that is why my family , friends and clients TRUST me ?

UNwilling to show hubris? lol

"unwilling to show hubris". And a very sensible policy it is too.

Let me explain my thought processes to you Hutchy. We were talking about the death rate amongst covid cases. I pointed out that a small difference in the Australian % was equal to 7-800 deaths. Then you said:

"If we tallied up the road deaths and suicide deaths that might also be 1% ."

Now in order to die of COVID you have to have the disease. In order to die from suicide or a road accident you only have to be (in this case) in Australia. So I assumed that was what your 1% was based on. Was I mistaken? Apparently, but as you failed to state your position clearly it was largely your fault. But being of generous spirit, I acknowledged my part in the nonsense with a bit of fun which seems to have made you even angrier than you were previously, so maybe leave it for the day. I am sure we can have many mutually beneficial discussions in the future.