COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 4:26pm

ABC news says it was cancelled after one person who travelled to Byron Bay tested positive. One person!
This shit just doesn’t end does it! That’s fucked

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 4:40pm

Yep total joke , seems holidays keep getting canceled, lockdowns and holidays are in sync

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Supafreak Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 4:50pm

There was a mass exodus from Brisbane when lockdown was announced , all heading North or Gold Coast . It’s nice that they give people time to bail .

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udo Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 5:01pm

I think you probably find that Covid is rampant in Byron ATM.

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 5:31pm

Maybe a third of people in Ballina supermarkets are wearing masks.
Looks like there's a mandatory use of masks for shop counter staff.
Distinct feeling of unease in the air.
Or is that dis-ease?

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 5:51pm

I was in Woolworths at Kingscliff this afternoon and noticed staff and alot more customers than usual wearing masks , had no idea what was going on till I got home and saw the news .

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 5:59pm

As Udo said, it's hard to imagine that things aren't kicking off.

views from the cockpit's picture
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views from the ... Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 6:02pm

Come to sunny Victoria for Easter!
All good here ;-)

soggydog's picture
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soggydog Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 6:07pm

I wonder if McGowan will shut the border again.............no wozl! :-)

stunet's picture
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stunet Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 6:24pm

The Woz are a bubble so they're 'probably' exempt from border closures.

Questionable quote marks used because no-one knows for sure.

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 7:02pm

tbb awesome posts above. The takeaway (as it's somewhat cryptic) is that the pilot light on the immiponzi has been cranked to hi-flow once more? Only it comes through hotel quarantine and has an immunisation to make good this time? No requirement for English - should be fun working in cafe kitchens in the near future... No, no they ordered the Boúrevos!!

& Qatar ramping up spreading people everywhere just as they cop it harder.

Byron - man sitting near the hens weekend party at the local pub, local, has tested positive

Also learned that a tradie can also be an 'entertainer'... probably the most epic contact tracing story in Oz so far.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 7:29pm

0-FE6-D158-5-DAE-4-E64-A7-D7-1-EBD0-DABDBF6

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 5:53am

JQ's picture
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JQ Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 8:28pm

'27000 people have tested positive for Covid in Australia. Under 900 people have died with an average age of 84 years old.'

Thanks to both our fortuitous geographic isolation and the quick and concise response of our governments to get it under control, by taking the necessary drastic actions. Had we followed the lead of other countries and various nay-sayers, that infection rate and death toll would be orders of magnitude higher.

Thankfully our government, and the bulk of our population were not idiotic enough to listen to the people who take the approach of 'Covid...lol.'. They instead, generally, chose to listen to people who actually know what they are talking about.

'2.7 million people have died WITH Covid on the entire planet in 15 months. Every year 17 million people die FROM heart disease around the planet.'

Yes, sure, all this has taken place with the greatest ever global efforts at infection control though. Without those efforts we would be getting hit hard with mutations which would hinder the efficacy of the vaccine. Heart disease isn't contagious either, FYI. Don't forget all the people suffering with 'long covid' symptoms either, that sounds particularly awful.

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Snuffy Smith Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 8:30pm

Blowin sauce blowout

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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 5:55am

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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 5:57am

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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 5:58am

Snuffy Smith's picture
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Snuffy Smith Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 9:02pm

Now okay!!! Seriously this is the question I am going to ask .Blowin so what do you think is the agenda for the world to be shut down and your observation of low numbers of death compared to infection and your obvious view that the overreaction of country's does not equate with the numbers put forth.

Snuffy Smith's picture
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Snuffy Smith Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 9:07pm

Maybe I just finished work that personal phones are verboten

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Supafreak Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 9:09pm

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/long-haul-covid-19-may-be-a-publi.... https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-tragedy-of-the-post-covid-long-h... https://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nba/2021/3/3/22292213/athletes-cov... https://www.triathlete.com/training/meet-3-triathletes-coping-with-long-... There is a ton of information on long haul covid now , before not so much but it’s going to be the major problem for many. You need good lungs for surfing , you don’t want this disease. Sure many aren’t affected but can you guarantee it won’t affect you ?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 5:51am

.

Snuffy Smith's picture
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Snuffy Smith Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 9:20pm

So long as it's not a saucepan to the throat.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 9:42pm

Blowin. Honest answer. Why do you always delete your posts..or change them???
Blowin said [.]
What a piece of lame arse shit. Are you a man or mouse blownetdreaming??

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 5:51am

.

views from the cockpit's picture
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views from the ... Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 10:02pm

As if that corrupt bloke was knobbing Gladys for love.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Wednesday, 31 Mar 2021 at 11:32pm

@blowin. Nice try. Some violins please.
p.s Let us not forget all the crew you've trodden on, hacked into, beaten down and sent off this website because of your 'i'm just a bloke issues'.
What about this. Stop being the voice of Swellnet. This is a sick website. You could do really well to just meld into it like all of us instead of trying to be the voice!!! How's that! Fuck. We could even get along. And your mate Dreamo. Same. Instead of 1000 words, try to narrow it down to 100. Cos we all have our thoughts and views. Blownetdreaming. I'm gonna leave you wth this, and i'm gonna sign out from this chirade. But for the love of Huey, let this site be for all, not just you two dictating every single post written.

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silentp Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 7:00am

Thanks bluediamond, that was perfect.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 7:58am

I wrote about 6 posts in 48 hours. Less than Bluediamond. None of which involved Bluediamond, concerned Bluediamond or were addressed to Bluediamond. Perhaps try letting me meld into Swellnet instead of chasing me around policing the joint?

Here’s the thing Bluediamond, if everyone was like yourself on Swellnet I wouldn’t bother visiting. From my perspective I don’t believe you’ve ever contributed a single thing of worth. . I’m not talking about you contributing things I agree with or not, but a complete lack of anything of interest at all. It’s boring non-comments.

This is already a sick site and it’s a sick site because there’s multitudes of differing, conflicting and even combatative viewpoints. I’m not interested in your stale, dull world of mutual back slaps and safe spaces. I’m not the voice of Swellnet I’m just another punter and if you don’t like that then it’s just bad luck. You’re the one chasing me around and trying to tell me what I should or shouldn’t do and say, I’m not telling you to do anything. . You’re the one claiming I shouldn’t be allowed on Swellnet, not vice versa.

I’m just doing my thing. Perhaps you should try and do the same?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 7:13am

why'd you delete the posts on Covid?

I don't necessarily agree with it, but it's nice to see the other side of the story.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 7:36am

I’m trying to be less controversial so as not to upset the muppets.

Just means I enjoy the site less when I’ve got to water it down so it’s a neutered safe space. Let’s make everything WSL anodyne.....yewwww!

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 7:44am

@blowin

I read your post last night and saw the mention of Indo malaria stats, cant remember the year they were from but it was quite some time ago, those stats are close to irrelevant now.

This article is from 2018 and even then they were claiming that 72% of Indonesia was free from Malaria transmission, every year the stats have been going down and death rates going down..
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS2214-109X(18)30198-0/fulltext
(edit not sure why but that link wont work, you can google it if you want to read it)

Hard to find reliable recent Indo malaria death rates stats though.

Dengue fever now is much more of a problem and has been increasing year by year, I'm pretty sure the death rate of dengue fever is now much higher than Malaria in Indo.

@bluediamond

You know i honestly dont understand the issue you have with me?

You seem to just not like people that have opposing opinions to you?

I get that you dont agree with some of my views and don't like them maybe even find them offensive, and you know what i feel exactly the same with some of you post.

Anyway dude get over it, time to let your bitterness go and move on.

BTW. I doubt i will convince you otherwise, but this idea that i change post some time after to fit in with others narratives or something is just ridiculous, why would i bother saying what i say in the first place, only to change it? it would be pointless...even these post people have tried to use against me from years ago, remain up and unedited...anyway think what you want.

Only reason i would edit a post after others have posted like the next day is if i drank and posted, i use to be a piss head when young long before Swellnet, but i rarely drink more than a beer or three these days, i just cant handle hang overs these days, so i dont get on Swellnet drunk.

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 7:48am

BTW. It's easy to see if a person has changed a post after others have posted their views, like Blowin did above, you can see the time and date that it was re-posted.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 7:56am

I don’t get the upset about edited posts. So what if a contributor reassesses what they decide to write? It’s their prerogative to contribute whatever they want.

Too many whiny fascists getting around. That’s not the surfing culture I live in. You want to tell others what they can think, say or do then you maybe surfing isn’t the right environment for you? Maybe go join the clubbies. Or the police.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:07am

I do get it that people might be pissed, if you said something, they argued against it and then they changed their original post to save face type thing.

But i dont see that happening.

BTW. I get why you deleted post as cant be bothered with it, but 100% agree with freeride76 post

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freeride76 Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:09am

I don't get upset, it just means the conversation no longer makes sense.

which kind of defeats the purpose of reading the forums.

totally the writers prerogative though.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:19am

Actually I guess there is times like the other night with myself where you say something in the heat off the moment that is well stupid and not the person you want to be, so you are better off deleting a post rather than living with it.

I guess that is the beauty of forums etc its not like real life where you have an argument and say something stupid you didnt mean, and cant take your words back.

But if its general conversation even if controversial topic/views, im not going to go back and edit my comment just to fit in with what others views are, no way on earth, if people have an issue with what i say, that's their problem not mine.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:14am

Let’s be honest though freeride these forums rarely make sense even with undeleted posts

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:19am

ha ha hard to argue with that.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 10:48am

07-E233-BD-8-F8-C-4-FFA-9-CC0-5-F60-FB7190-F3

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 6:14pm

Does anyone know why we can’t eat or drink standing up ? 5-FC03-C3-C-6135-4-E51-837-A-443-F1254-B73-C

lucky-al's picture
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lucky-al Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:10pm

We're being trained.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:30pm

I skolled a beer standing up tonight Al.

lucky-al's picture
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lucky-al Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:43pm

Won't be told eh Steve? Cheers brother.

bonza's picture
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bonza Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 8:46pm

Rhetorical question me thinks but anyways to help with social distancing. Ask a Victorian.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 12:38am

Nah Blowin and Indo. Nothing more to add to what i said last night. I'm over it. But from here on in i'm outta reading the comments. Not when one side has been gagged and the other allowed to dominate the site without genuine opposition...whom by the way are much more intellectual than me and actually gave a reasonable argument to your own. I still don't understand how Swellnet can ban one, and not all, or not allow one and all. To me, it's some form of clear favouritism and aligning themselves with a certain point of view. The main reason I'm stickin the boot in and chasing the man not the ball is because things aren't right and fair, and swellnet has compromised their integrity. Whether that has lasting effects, who knows. But its put me off being on here so you'll definitely hear less of me from here on. Enjoy your constant daily spiels from Indo and Blowin swellnet crew. I can't handle it another minute. Cheers.

Snuffy Smith's picture
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Snuffy Smith Thursday, 1 Apr 2021 at 9:26pm

Just finished work and low and behold why the deleted posts? I thought I asked a reasonable question so here it is againNow okay!!! Seriously this is the question I am going to ask .Blowin so what do you think is the agenda for the world to be shut down and your observation of low numbers of death compared to infection and your obvious view that the overreaction of country's does not equate with the numbers put forth..

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 4:07am
Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 10:46am

Snuffy. As I posted earlier I’ve got no idea what the point of the global overreaction to the threat of Covid might entail. I suspect it’ll have something to do with heightened imposition of controls over society in some form or another.

JQ's picture
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JQ Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 10:56am

Is it factually an overreaction though, or is that just your opinion. Remember, there is a difference.