COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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wallpaper Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:03pm

'it's all over youtube'

Going by your rationale for designating something as being 'all over youtube', so are videos about buttock implants and cats.

Does this mean I should therefore start devoting my every waking moment to the principles that - I by some convoluted process involving a chemical imbalance and a serious staff shortage where working braincells are concerned - understand them to espouse?

and tylerduren - your opinion is of no consequence, just like those fucking ridiculous canadian trucking videos.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:10pm
tylerdurden wrote:

I couldn’t find anything about the truckers on abc, 10/9/7, smh or bbc.
Neither could I find anything on there about Sweden not approving Covid vaccines for 5-11yo’s.
I think they are both pertinent stories that are relevant to us here in Australia but that’s just my opinion

Stories are pertinant when based off your bias....or anyones bias.

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Ben Harding Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:20pm

The complexity of where are at is mind boggling. I find it hard to believe that anyone is staunchly black and white anymore...I sure am not.

This lady's personal situation cuts through to the core for me as you can feel the emotion within each para. How many others like her? She mentions 100s of thousands who are just as fearful for their lives as her (across Aus).

Fucked if I'd want to be in any ones shoes who's calling the political shots Atm:

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/why-im-relieved-the-wa-bor...

"If the last two years have taught us anything, isn’t it that health is a privilege? And that it can be taken away at random, at any given time?" - pretty spot on and relevant to the past two days of posts on other forums.

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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:20pm

Absolutely.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:35pm
Ben Harding wrote:

The complexity of where are at is mind boggling. I find it hard to believe that anyone is staunchly black and white anymore...I sure am not.

This lady's personal situation cuts through to the core for me as you can feel the emotion within each para. How many others like her? She mentions 100s of thousands who are just as fearful for their lives as her (across Aus).

Fucked if I'd want to be in any ones shoes who's calling the political shots Atm:

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/why-im-relieved-the-wa-bor...

"If the last two years have taught us anything, isn’t it that health is a privilege? And that it can be taken away at random, at any given time?" - pretty spot on and relevant to the past two days of posts on other forums.

"Yet, we seem happy to treat people with “underlying health conditions” as collateral damage, in our race to get back to normal."

Most people like burliegh, who parrot on food is medicine, eat healthy etc etc, say so from a position of good health and selfishness and zero empathy, ignorance and not quite able to grasp the fact that many in the community don't have health, through no fault of their own.
Great article to post, Ben Harding.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:49pm
Roadkill wrote:
tylerdurden wrote:

I couldn’t find anything about the truckers on abc, 10/9/7, smh or bbc.
Neither could I find anything on there about Sweden not approving Covid vaccines for 5-11yo’s.
I think they are both pertinent stories that are relevant to us here in Australia but that’s just my opinion

Stories are pertinant when based off your bias....or anyones bias.

Huh? I looked up those websites on a computer I’ve never used before. No algorithms selectively putting up stories that might interest me.
When others on here have said the trucker convoy is all over mainstream media it certainly is not on the front page of any of those websites, nor is the story that an industrialised country has not approved vaccines for 5-11yo’s

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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:54pm

It's all over mainstream media in the countries concerned, which disproves the "media blackout/censorship" hypothesis, unless you want to argue that Australia is uniquely going it alone in censoring information.

Which would already have been comprehensively disproved by previous MSM coverage of other anti-mandate protests in US and Europe, as well as the ones in Melbourne.

Do you have any other evidence which would support the media black-out/censorship hypothesis?

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Hiccups Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:57pm

"Hey honey, what are you up to today?"

"Oh, I'm gonna spend it making sure there's enough news coverage for my liking of some truckies in Canada, and if there isn't, my word the lads down on the swellnet forums are gonna hear allll about it".

"Sounds like a great use of your time love."

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:09pm

No evidence Freeride apart from if you did not visit this forum would you have heard about possibly the biggest truck protest in history?

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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:13pm

Apart from the fact that it is all over social media and everyone now is connected to 5/10/50 people who will be madly posting that shitt all day long, then no.

And apart from the fact it's all over You-tube, the largest video sharing site on the internet, no.

Apart from that, no, I'd say the censorship has been a wild success.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:22pm

Too much coffee this morning Freeride?

So does that mean the major new sites are dead and buried? If everyone gets their info via social media what’s the point of those sites even existing?

They still provide a very large chunk of societies information whether you like to acknowledge it or not, and none of them are reporting it.
They may think it’s not newsworthy but then they post articles like this which they obviously think are:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-records-13-333-covid-19-cases-and-35...

https://www.9news.com.au/world/shark-news-why-unprovoked-attacks-increas...

https://www.9news.com.au/world/shark-news-why-unprovoked-attacks-increas...

Lead stories on the first 3 I clicked on

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:23pm

@Ben Harding

"Fucked if I'd want to be in any ones shoes who's calling the political shots Atm:"

Absolutely. You can't win.

One thing for sure is the stakes either way are very, very high.

People who call any of our state premiers 'control freaks' or 'madmen' or whatever, are simply only showing their own personal biases and inability to consider the grander scheme of things.

Scumbags figureheads who outspoken and berate our leaders for not folding over and opening up because of freedumb! should be remembered for their contributions to history.

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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:25pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:25pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:25pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:25pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:26pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:26pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:26pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:26pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:26pm
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aaron61 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:26pm
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san Guine Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:34pm
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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:45pm
tylerdurden wrote:

So does that mean the major new sites are dead and buried? If everyone gets their info via social media what’s the point of those sites even existing?

Thats an extremely important question I reckon.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:47pm

No doubt the vaccines reduce severity of illness and transmission.
However, all cause mortality and excess deaths perhaps are more important in the overall picture SanGuine.
I think in time that will be the overall standard by which a country’s strategy will be judged

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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:50pm
tylerdurden wrote:

No doubt the vaccines reduce severity of illness and transmission.
However, all cause mortality and excess deaths perhaps are more important in the overall picture SanGuine.
I think in time that will be the overall standard by which a country’s strategy will be judged

Surely you’re joking about the transmission part.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 1:53pm
tylerdurden wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
tylerdurden wrote:

I couldn’t find anything about the truckers on abc, 10/9/7, smh or bbc.
Neither could I find anything on there about Sweden not approving Covid vaccines for 5-11yo’s.
I think they are both pertinent stories that are relevant to us here in Australia but that’s just my opinion

Stories are pertinant when based off your bias....or anyones bias.

Huh? I looked up those websites on a computer I’ve never used before. No algorithms selectively putting up stories that might interest me.
When others on here have said the trucker convoy is all over mainstream media it certainly is not on the front page of any of those websites, nor is the story that an industrialised country has not approved vaccines for 5-11yo’s

Sweden not approving vaccines for 5-11yo is not that big a deal in Aus. It had been reported locally. Now it is old news.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:00pm

Burleigh...that’s what they’re saying!
I guess if you’re greater than 3 months last dose all effects are starting to wear off.
Fair enough Roadkill, in less than 24 hours it’s old news

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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:05pm

TD, what about the effect on serious illness/death?
Is that longer lasting according to your understanding?

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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:05pm
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overthefalls Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:20pm
burleigh wrote:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZQesM9PynA/?utm_medium=copy_link

Funny, but a bogus analogy from somebody who thinks he knows better than everybody else because he was a great basketball player. Similar ilk to Pat Cash.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:21pm

Long term side effects obviously unknown Freeride. Some rapid onset adverse events can have lifelong consequences, like the clotting for example.
Neurological issues, malignancy, fertility effects will remain to be seen

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freeride76 Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:25pm

I mean the effects on reducing illness/death from Covid.

Does that endure past 3 months according to your understanding?

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:46pm
burleigh wrote:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZQesM9PynA/?utm_medium=copy_link

Nah....we don't have lots of other forms of protection, but do have other forms of contraception.
Also, we figured out how pregancy works quite a while ago. Covid is novel.

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tylerdurden Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 2:52pm

Not sure Freeride. Some Israeli scientists have apparently recommended against a second booster (4th dose).
At the start when they said the vaccines last 12 months then you need a booster I believed them.
At each stage when they bought forward the timeframe from 6 to 5 to 4 to 3 months I believed them.
I guess soon we’ll work both out: how long the boosters last and whether the 4th dose is worth it

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:07pm
burleigh wrote:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CZQesM9PynA/?utm_medium=copy_link

This clown would probably try and compare COVID with polio. Like, only a total idiot would.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:18pm

The third shot (1st booster) is suppose to give you about 70% effectiveness but after 3 months you are down to 50% effectiveness, then 4 months down to 40% etc.

I think the 4th shot 2nd booster pushes you up to 90% effectiveness for a while

Recent article on it

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/19/1071809356/covid-bo...

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burleigh Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:19pm

Love it how you fools get so triggered by an instagram post. yet this morning i posted about a 7 year old with pericarditis including the report number and there was silence.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:25pm

You're talking yourself up, burleigh. Nothing you say or post triggers anyone on here.
It's more.....we just laugh at how stupid you actually are :)

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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:26pm

This has to take the cake! Fark me just seen on a friends FB..

And what's a blood cloth?

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:31pm

Haha! Thanks for sharing Craig, that's as good as it gets!

Imagine how afraid you must be day to day, thinking you could breathe in spike proteins from the 90% vaccinated population.....

Also - LOL - how do you almost enter a coma?

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:34pm

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

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Stok Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:36pm
burleigh wrote:

Love it how you fools get so triggered by an instagram post. yet this morning i posted about a 7 year old with pericarditis including the report number and there was silence.

Bogut has been a constant whinger right thoughout the whole event of covid. He's the epitome of self centred-ness. He frequently posts low brow memes which are plain wrong and get cheap laughs out of similar minded folk to him - all while covid rampages around the world.

Of course it's farked up to imagine any young child having a reaction such as that, it's not something any of us are really in a position to discuss, and it certainly shouldn't be something to use as a basis for your disregard of the seriousness of covid and the neccessity of vaccinations.

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flollo Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:37pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

The third shot (1st booster) is suppose to give you about 70% effectiveness but after 3 months you are down to 50% effectiveness, then 4 months down to 40% etc.

I think the 4th shot 2nd booster pushes you up to 90% effectiveness for a while

Recent article on it

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/01/19/1071809356/covid-bo...

This is still not bad, I have a flu shot every year and I think it's about 50%.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:41pm
Blowin wrote:

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

How come when Robo posted 3/4 family members had developed cancer from the vaccine...you never called it out as "made up bullshit", blowin?

That gets a pass but craig's post gets called out?
(how very selective of you)

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Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:41pm

Oh wait, it's been topped.. I quit.

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gsco Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:54pm

they are funny, need more of that stuff in here

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Blowin Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:51pm
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

How come when Robo posted 3/4 family members had developed cancer from the vaccine...you never called it out as "made up bullshit", blowin?

That gets a pass but craig's post gets called out?
(how very selective of you)

Because Robo presented his as anecdotal whilst Blindboy presented his as established and indisputable scientific fact. He then used his “facts” to beat people over the head.

He even said those who were Anti - Science questioned the ridiculous notion that the millions-of-years-old naturally aquired immunity was bettered by a hastily invented vaccine which had underachiever at every measure.

He also declared that those who questioned his lie were dangerous to public health and should be officially silenced.

That’s the difference between Robo and Sicko.

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Roadkill Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:54pm
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

For sure that’s Fake news, Craig.

That’s as much made up bullsh1t as when Blindboy tried to claim that naturally aquired immunity was less effective than the vaccines at suppressing Covid.

How can a science teacher hate science so much?

Just more covid misinformation to wade through from the Covid Cultists. When their shouty declarations are routinely disproven, they pretend it never happened.

How come when Robo posted 3/4 family members had developed cancer from the vaccine...you never called it out as "made up bullshit", blowin?

That gets a pass but craig's post gets called out?
(how very selective of you)

Because Robo presented his as anecdotal whilst Blindboy presented his as established and indisputable scientific fact. He then used his “facts” to beat people over the head.

He even said those who were Anti - Science questioned the ridiculous notion that the millions-of-years-old naturally aquired immunity was bettered by a hastily invented vaccine which had underachiever at every measure.

He also declared that those who questioned his lie were dangerous to public health and should be officially silenced.

That’s the difference between Robo and Sicko.

More it suits your agenda...all good. Carry on.

ps, I was talking about Craig's post getting called out. Yet you focused onBB and ignored answering. As usual.