House prices

gsco wrote:

It is very hard to reconcile exactly what is taking place on this planet right now.

Exter's pyramid is what could well happen if this schitt keeps going :)

Excellent summary with charts btw, very concise. Do not disagree. We really are in the twilight zone.

It's been proven psychologically. People are easier to manipulate and control when they become desperate. Nothing to do with house prices but can relate to velocities above post. Please take this comment with a grain of salt ;)

Thanks VJ. I really appreciate your posts. I too held similar common-sense viewpoints right up until late 2020. If I come across as bitchy I don't mean too.. really insightful posts from you gsco and others.

btw i read the ben bernanke thing in Nature this morning and pretty much spat my coffee out.. so was happy to read gsco posts afterwards/..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Exter
Exter's pyramid

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_economy

VJ yes it's why I left the industry at the time: the lead up, handling and aftermath of the GFC.

I see most articles on Bernanke getting the Nobel prize make some kind of brief mention of the criticisms he's faced, such as this Guardian article saying:

"He has faced criticism ... for the consequences of quantitative easing, after the Fed’s policy of buying US government debt drove up asset prices with damaging effects for inequality."

As you'd know, the mistake they made was after bailing out the US financial system with free money (and detaching it from economic fundamentals, as you mentioned), the Fed failed to wean the industry off the free money drug, and now we're living the consequences of asset price bubbles and inflation, not to mention moral hazard in the industry which is hard to quantify.

Surely it must be opposites day and we'll wake up tomorrow and the Nobel prize people will admit they were just joking...

velocityjohnno wrote:

What good news can I say? Well, the recent rate hikes are the fastest ever, apparently. Boomers can't point a finger and say they had worse. At some point they stop, and the RBA has already tried slowing. Getting through the last recession coloured me, probably coloured many others who were in similar position at the time. I can draw on the experience, it might mean I miss a lot of the YOLO that has been frankly amazing from circa 2004-19, but I'm ready for TSHTF.

To really fix the whole system, 100% reserve-backed banking. I'd go gold and silver in a free float as the currency on top of that, but I'm old fashioned.

TSHTF?

And thoughts on BTC as a currency in times of fiat capitulation?

gsco wrote:

Surely it must be opposites day and we'll wake up tomorrow and the Nobel prize people will admit they were just joking...

Late April Fool's perhaps?

cheers crew,
I've been catching up with links on this thread and only just got to watch the 4 corners program, made me emotional, sad/angry. The young single mum's position really hit home so I'll share why. Closest we ever got to that was being 21, on $125 a week and trying to do uni degree, Ms had new baby, we were in 1brm flat in Mossy Park on $65 a week, fuck it was tight. The police were raiding flats nearby, pulling crew out by their hair for drugs, my Kingswood was broken into.... fried Vietnam vet, haunted teacher, domestic violence and a beautiful Mauritian girl going from wall to wall, hilarious gay guys all in the block... breathes... it ain't easy when you have kids really young in this situation. We did hit the olds up for Sunday roast and did washing while there. Moved onto better things but the girl in the vid's work was so similar to what the Ms did, restaurants and pubs... on top of that it was a recession so opportunity through advancement at work and good pay were like a mirage... it got better tho, had to wait for mining boom to take off.
Edit: new baby mentioned above on the way to becoming an immunologist, was filling me in on the experience of cadavers for uni, I'll never take viagra after hearing what he said...

donweather wrote:

TSHTF?

And thoughts on BTC as a currency in times of fiat capitulation?

the shit hits the fan, Don. Good question. It would have to be better than being in a fiat implosion, but one thing post GFC has taught me is that things can be very stuffed and you think it might be the end, but it keeps on going. Currently cryptos have sold off like QQQ and all risk assets, including PMs... I wonder how BTC, Gold, ie stuff without counterparty risk, would go in an environment where LIBOR shoots to the moon and no financial intermediaries trust each other? Watch for a decouple between them and risk assets vs USD? What do people think about this?

There seems to already be some decoupling of BTC compared to the stock markets wouldn't you agree?

Its out of my hands I'm just going to try and survive the ride along with many others who aren't living at the top end of town or have been here before. What can you do but protect yourself and your loved ones, and parts of the community if you can help. I guess we will find out when the time comes (it's all ready here for some, and has been for some time, poverty never goes away). Wish I didn't have to see the impacts that have been predicted or played out in my communities before the rich get richer and the poor get the picture.

We have become financial pawns to some extent you can see this by the demographic changes at the beaches. Check on your mates, it's going to be one hell of a ride if it ever comes. But what would I know, I now just rely on colher and others like gsco and yourself who have financial experience for the truth. But who knows we are in the twilight zone. Class war or not, anything is possible in an uncertain world other than what i see playing out before my very eyes.

At least someone got wealthier or made a buck at my expense ;) these are the days of our lives, If it goes to shit what can you do? Other than ride it out. Humans have got to be resilient, but I know and have seen there are limits all too real. I don't have the anserw's, only hope and past experience. We ain't going back. Only forward from here. Those surfs are going to become more and more precious too many, don't fuck em up. People are going to be under pressure. best wishes. Oh and don't hate the weather man it's out of his hands.

bitcoin and the nasdaq are still fairly coupled (correlated):

The recent speculation is that decoupling was starting to happen due to bitcoin not experiencing the same sized rise then fall since mid-June.

People have also pounced on the idea that bitcoin has "outperformed" recently, i.e. since mid-August.

In the past year you would have lost 2/3 of your wealth in bitcoin.

All over it gsco as usual, thank you for your continued input and expertise.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/decoupling.asp

A good snapshot so far, data as of today. At about 54:00 Martin mentions that he hasn't seen such volatility in the bond market's forward pricing. Starts about 1/2hr in...

This list is gold. Top 20 articles (published in 2011), description below:

This paper presents a list of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years. This list was assembled in honor of the AER's one-hundredth anniversary by a group of distinguished economists at the request of AER's editor. A brief description accompanies the citations of each article.

Click on the PDF and then on the articles.

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.1.1

The content here is very foundational and a lot can be learned. It can get quite technical though but if you persist you get rewarded :-).

Bank Of England governor confirms their bond support will cease Friday. Will be an interesting day.
Will be Friday the 14th. Could’ve been a proper Black Friday for the headline chasers, but missed it by one…

Craig, I think a more useful question is: Why is bitcoin so coupled with stocks?

For example, from this Sept 10 article, the rolling 90 day correlation between bitcoin and the S&P500 is a quite unbelievable 0.59, and with the nasdaq it's 0.62.

Why so high? What actually drives bitcoin's price?

Yeah I was getting annoyed at how coupled it was.

It's hardly its own stand alone asset class if it's tracking the same as the global markets?

gsco wrote:

Craig, I think a more useful question is: Why is bitcoin so coupled with stocks?

Why so high? What actually drives bitcoin's price?

The same thing that drove up the price of tulips?

elon musk's tweets?

Correlation doesn't mean causation. They might be coupled but the drivers could be separate e.g. the driver of the bitcoin price does not cause the price change in markets. But the market price itself might be moving in the same direction hence demonstrating correlation. I wouldn't know the answer in this specific case, it requires deeper analysis.

What are the majority of bitcoin shares currencies invested in regards to high low risk options etc medical housing retail entertainment Do they follow regular investment interests of common known investment securities in order to establish confidence in return somewhat
Bitcoin as the new ellectronic trading option is still yet to gain full consumer confidence in relation to established market and is highly volitile as gsco chart of three quarter loses this year shows some what

Lolol

Here’s an Ulta-flog from the article telling us how hard it is to get rentals at any price, straight after he’s almost snapped his neck nodding in agreement with the ALP decision to bring import an extra million renters every couple of years years. Reckon that’ll have any effect on finding a rental with a fair price tag bloke? Or help vulnerable Australians find secure work?
Words cannot describe the reckless fuckery shown by clowns such as this.

Albo and Bandt have the exact same policies as Scomo when it comes to creating the problem ie they do their best to make it worse.

Australia’s political class needs nuking from orbit.

We need a rent freeze now.

Renters are struggling to meet soaring costs of living. Many are in insecure work. There’s an inequality crisis.

We've frozen rents before & we should do it again now. https://t.co/sgBHWdwIT9

— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) August 24, 2022

Abc news
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-12/quality-of-financial-advice-versu...

the new charlatans?

gsco wrote:

bitcoin and the nasdaq are still fairly coupled (correlated):

The recent speculation is that decoupling was starting to happen due to bitcoin not experiencing the same sized rise then fall since mid-June.

People have also pounced on the idea that bitcoin has "outperformed" recently, i.e. since mid-August.

In the past year you would have lost 2/3 of your wealth in bitcoin.

Thanks
Any chance you can add Gold to that same chart please? I think you’ll find it follows a similar coupling with the Nasdaq.

Don, I couldn't use gold directly but I've included the SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD which is the main American ETF that holds actual gold bullion, and the Australian equivalent that we can trade on the ASX: the BetaShares Gold Bullion ETF QAU. Both tend to track the gold price fairly closely (that's their intention) and are nearly identical to each other.

How come your charts are visible on my phone but nothing is visible when I view this thread on my computer (chrome)?

Is this the same for anyone else??

I can see them on desktop.

There's another ETF, GOLD, that looks like the gold price in AUD a lot more, tends to correlate the Perth Mint Spot *roughly*, minus a premium (as it's not the real stuff perhaps). Silver equivalent comes up as ETPMAG on my screen which isn't the nicest sounding ticker ever made.

Looks like QAU expresses it in USD? Anyway, good to compare charts. Most of us live in AUD, for the most.

Also, maybe bitcoin correlates Nasdaq as finance bros go to Wall St and borrow in the non-digital economy to fill their companies with BTC. So if they get margin called, guess which gets sold off. That's a hypothesis, stab in the dark but wouldn't put it past them.

Also thanks Flollo for that article link above, more learning to learn!

That idea crossed my mind before I asked the bitcoin question too, what's stoping them. Are all electronic trades traceable worldwide? A bit like the new improvements in genealogy DNA tracing or are there loopholes within the bitcoin system that make it more attractive to those less credulous (Vast wealth to offshore bank accounts). Do we know how much money actually leaves Australia?

I see advantages and disadvantages of bit coin trading but with the recent Optus scare how secure is the general system in tracing money if there where to be a scam of some sort. Maybe I'm overthinking it? Still very new to bit coin ideas and concepts, but interesting all the how. Plenty of people deal and play with it with little problems. People are using it so it's working but Im not clear enough on it to try it if the time came . Will always lean to a hard cash society for obvious reasons but can understand the concepts of modern transactions. Digital has and has not improved my practical world I work in.
cheers for the continued interesting lessons.

blowin I don't have the anserw's regarding the housing crisis but it would have been nice to see housing addressed before we got to the situations we are seeing today, fully agree with some of your comments of taking care of home first and for most. But how are we going to balance it when they are always wanting a cheaper workforce with out increasing the minimum wage. They have dug a hole and don't know how to fill it in, So the American system of employing the third world to do the jobs no one wants to do is the less fuss solution rather than the possibility of raising working wages (but we find ourselves's suddenly between a rock and a hard place).

More exploitation same old problem, How did we get here when we knew what was happening before our eyes. We were lead to believe greed trumps all (she be right mate). Some where in the great Australian dream, and that immigrants and low wages will solve all our problems. Heads in the sand for too long at the expense of existing Australians. I don't want to see an increase in population that is used to fill our less desirable jobs. To me it just screams exploitation (iv'e worked those jobs). Why follow America down this path of true lasting class devide at the expense of foreign workers? Ethically I think it's flawed lazy and exploitive. Yes some will work good jobs but what about educating existing Australians? Or is it too late economically and they don't want to admit it?

As we have seen plenty are willing to exploit. Australia's going to be tested ethically if it takes this path forward let alone social and environmental impacts. Homelessness could be addressed but they aren't throwing enough at it and looking for the easy solution. Same old story. Too little too late.

I can see them. tech glitch ;)
story of my life with components outside tech (always an issue) the new economic throw away society makes someone allot of money and constant frustration for others. Cheap and nasty is the new gold;) From clutches, cables to cheap Chinese importation of poorly made replacements. What can you do? we are winging it somewhat. And have no one to blame but ourselves;)

Hey Rob, the way the standard system does that kind of transfer is the SWIFT banking transfer system. Used to send back and forth when peon in retail banking. Crypto tends to circumvent that, has it's own channels/paths. Other countries are establishing counterpart systems to SWIFT, I think. Anyone else with better info welcome to chime in. I reckon the SWIFT system is pretty good, it works.

Last para, what to do? Look for more durable, older items whether they be hand planes, or furniture, etc. You can keep a computer many years longer than you would think by installing a smaller, less intrusive on memory Linux operating system. Keep a car longer, and keep it well. etc etc

To solve housing, I'd get land zoned on the edge of country towns, and develop small, modest dwellings, on public transport links. Tradies would be the limiter at present. (Edit: room here for true community banks, retired tradies/handymen lending their time, local business providing some supplies, true Amish stuff. Think local, act local!) Be aware you might be making the slums of tomorrow, so think of it as a stop gap. Those houses could be used for homeless/working poor - until this mad real estate run ends, and all the AirBNB investors get toasted, and sales get forced. Then the people who need housing most could be relocated back into the towns as properties become available and rental prices retrace. At the same time, recession occurring should see immigration lessen greatly (and a political party that does this would help), and there wouldn't be an overflow of people out-bidding the locals for rentals. Need a cathartic event...

And speaking of which, BOE has announced it'll end it's bond intervention buying on Friday!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-england-global-markets-you-have-3...

Craig wrote:

I can see them on desktop.

Chrome?

Maybe it's some security system my nazi work IT has implemented?

velocityjohnno wrote:

Hey Rob, the way the standard system does that kind of transfer is the SWIFT banking transfer system. Used to send back and forth when peon in retail banking. Crypto tends to circumvent that, has it's own channels/paths. Other countries are establishing counterpart systems to SWIFT, I think. Anyone else with better info welcome to chime in. I reckon the SWIFT system is pretty good, it works.

Last para, what to do? Look for more durable, older items whether they be hand planes, or furniture, etc. You can keep a computer many years longer than you would think by installing a smaller, less intrusive on memory Linux operating system. Keep a car longer, and keep it well. etc etc

To solve housing, I'd get land zoned on the edge of country towns, and develop small, modest dwellings, on public transport links. Tradies would be the limiter at present. (Edit: room here for true community banks, retired tradies/handymen lending their time, local business providing some supplies, true Amish stuff. Think local, act local!) Be aware you might be making the slums of tomorrow, so think of it as a stop gap. Those houses could be used for homeless/working poor - until this mad real estate run ends, and all the AirBNB investors get toasted, and sales get forced. Then the people who need housing most could be relocated back into the towns as properties become available and rental prices retrace. At the same time, recession occurring should see immigration lessen greatly (and a political party that does this would help), and there wouldn't be an overflow of people out-bidding the locals for rentals. Need a cathartic event...

And speaking of which, BOE has announced it'll end it's bond intervention buying on Friday!

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-england-global-markets-you-have-3...

thank you velocity, friday is the day as you say I will wait for yours and others appraisals. Thanks once again for your input as well as others in the know. You present some excellent ideas for all to ponder and implement where possible. Always interesting even if I'm way off the mark. I didn't get those introductions at school. Really cool seeing the knowledge get shared on swellnet.

Some very good points RobWilliams , agree with your take on immigration and employment , I too have done many of those jobs.
So many of the issues we have at the moment in Australia are mostly due to over population , the housing crisis / rental shortages , hospital ramping , lack of beds, doctors, tradespeople, etc etc , the traffic on the roads , crowds in the surf , 3 weeks to get you car tuned up .... In WA all we hear from the State Gov is we need more people to move here to fill all the vacancies, all in the rush to dig everything out of the ground / sea ASAP , so shit really . All of these resources will be more be way more valuable in the future , why rush now ? Maybe build the infrastructure then import the crowds?( if at all).
Short sighted

2nded, agree some very good points Rob.
And it seems from article above that they haven't been in spamming the QE as such, just buying where the market offer was and not hoovering up everything in sight, so maybe things really are different this time. Nothingburger or a big event, I don't know.

I've seen a bit of the manic scramble here in WA Campbell. North from Butler, wow, that bit has changed and become super suburbia of the southern seas. Everything got levelled... yellow builders sand everywhere.

The southwest is nuts, sub divisions of project built homes as far as the eye can see, every new big town bypass becomes an avenue for more swampy b grade land to be chopped up and sold for ludicrous amounts for "Eco" villages and treendales , sign on the dotted line and fly to the desert to pay for it for the rest of your life.
Then there is the rich western suburb investors with their beach houses, air b n b action , way worse , less fucks given , people farming in the name of a negative gearing tax break and a "house down south" local status ....

I’ve never been to Perth but I can notice that it’s incredibly stretched north to south. Just looked at the map, it must be spreading over 100km!? I looked at that area up north you mentioned, developments everywhere. Not the best way to solve housing shortages or build infrastructure. But I guess everyone wants to live close to the beach?

Yep chrome Don.

donweather wrote:

Craig wrote:

I can see them on desktop.

Chrome?

Maybe it's some security system my nazi work IT has implemented?

Same at my work. Can’t see images in articles or threads. Only on the main page. Both edge and chrome.

Nazis

Very interesting read albeit this article is a few weeks old now.

https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/mbs

Hope you are well campbell and been finding a few out of the way sessions. It's exactly as you describe.

I can only wonder what stems from doggy deals at the various effected communities expense. They have carved the fuck out it. And have changed pristine areas irreversibly. I understand the need for development but sometimes you got to ask if its in a communities best interest or if it has been just signed through for a financial benefit for a select few.

Did people vote for more community transparency at the last election? I think they did but until we implement it, our communities and environments are at the mercy of possible corruption. They have shown us time and time again they don't mind exploiting. How much are we going to tolerate before we call the spade a spade? It's visible obvious from what has been passed through and allowed to happen. Where are the corrupt pricks now? Anserw sitting comfortably at the expense to us all.

couple of recent examples
abc newshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-13/qld-ipswich-council-tully-paul-pi...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-12/nt-icac-report/101526484?utm_camp...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/nt-icac-commissioner-video-concer...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-12/victoria-corruption-probes-legal-...

sadly the list is endless, they continue to protect their best interests from within. It's what they are good at. Politricks.

But they don't, do that, do they

A pretty fcking impressive rally after a decent dump all in one day (overnight) in OS markets after the release of US CPI data. The impressive swing/turnaround/rally after the release of CPI data makes no sense, however this paints a better picture.

https://www.realvision.com/shows/daily-briefing/videos/when-theres-no-on...

Trouble

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/bank-of-mum-and-dad-in-troub...

Also, this one will squeeze the market:

'Under the APRA stress test, new home loan applicants must show they can afford monthly repayments at 3 percentage points more than they are applying for, or the bank’s pre-set floor rate (whichever is higher). A floor rate is the minimum rate a borrower will be charged.'

flollo wrote:

Trouble

https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/bank-of-mum-and-dad-in-troub...

Also, this one will squeeze the market:

'Under the APRA stress test, new home loan applicants must show they can afford monthly repayments at 3 percentage points more than they are applying for, or the bank’s pre-set floor rate (whichever is higher). A floor rate is the minimum rate a borrower will be charged.'

Paywall

$300k in 1981. $21.5m in 2022.

https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/surgeon-buys-house-with-manly-beach...

Would you rather have that house with views of Manly or a luxe house at an epic regional spot plus the $20Million difference in your pocket?

Me? I would live in the bush anytime, even if I drive 2 hours to the beach.

I also have a confession to make: over the years I added SUP and Wingsurfing to my watersports portfolio. This means I can find somewhat acceptable conditions on most days and far from popular locations. I had an epic wing session the other day, completely by myself, with not a living soul in sight. There is no need to squeeze with everyone else, even lakes are an option now.

Foil boarding is the aquatic equivalent of rollerblading with a Ginsu knife in each hand.