House prices
sypkan wrote:just be grateful most sydney / melbourne rich bastards aren't imaginative enough to look beyond the white shoe brigade heaven...
there's still some 'bargains' in good places to be had I reckon...
all relatively of course
The definition of a good place is subjective. And that is a good thing.
sypkan wrote:and tbh, while there is some extreme housing stress at the bottom, even the plebs are still doing ok. ...there's none of that well entrenched, years long skills development, of basically living in poverty we saw in the 90's...
ir'll come no doubt, especially with the cb's strongly signalling such resolve about their intentions... but times aren't tough at all yet really...
Perhaps you’re right sypkan, but I was around during the 90’s, didn’t own a home and rentals were available and pretty easily affordable. There wasn’t any great ‘living in poverty’ in my memory.
At the moment anyone who is renting is mostly doing it tough. Under 30’s are basically screwed unless they have a real high paying gig. So many are in low paid service industry jobs that can’t afford basic rent. Genuine hardship today is much more likely than the 90’s, in my opinion.
I largely agree batfink, its a tough market to get into, be it buying or renting...
but for most hanging in their own hood, there's certain benefits that brings, be it ma n pa's house, or an uncle and his
dodgy rental agreement...
breaking out of - or into - these arrangements is where the real difficulty lies... and if that break is forced... you're basically fucked...
my main point is there's still a lot of cash sloshing around, and there's a shitload of work - if one wants it...
that's different to the 90's, where my area had 40% youth unemployment, and I basically moved over your way, where things were not so bad
the big difference now is the wide wide gaping hole between the top and bottom - both in terms of wages and house prices / accommodations - which really cannot be understated ...and where the 'miraculous' period of growth has bumped up the bottom to the point where bottom feeders legitimately cannot afford it...
however, opportunities still abound, hence crew taking on 2 or 3 jobs to afford it... and, quite often in cheaper places, opportunities really really still abound... which is vastly different to the 90's, where outside of the major cities, areas were so limited in opportunity, the dole was often the only option
but at least you could afford to live on the dole :)
I guess my main point is, we ain't seen nothing yet...
and, for those with wealth, the scaling back, if any, is a long long way off...
Im thinking the government, and australians, are so addicted to this wealth trap, they'll do all possible in their power to avoid it crashing down
cue open door policy....
(including ridiculously long and unhealthy hospital waiting lists and ever growing now extreme inequality)
"however, opportunities still abound, hence crew taking on 2 or 3 jobs to afford it... and, quite often in cheaper places, opportunities really really still abound... which is vastly different to the 90's, where outside of the major cities, areas were so limited in opportunity, the dole was often the only option"
Spot on Syp.
"...that's different to the 90's, where my area had 40% youth unemployment..."
its significant beyond available emphasis the formative influence this can have on a generation...
interestingly, i read the other day china is now experiencing 20% youth unemployment... how that plays out over there is anybody's guess...
Lack of backpackers is having a huge influence around here Syp.
My kids can get a job so easily because there is just such a shortage of labour.
and more Noosa craziness - from a link in your linked article above Freeride
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/noosa-house-price-record-smashed-in...
GreenJam wrote:and more Noosa craziness - from a link in your linked article above Freeride
https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/noosa-house-price-record-smashed-in...
Couldnt give houses away here in 2015. Places were advertised at 750 and went for 650; 1.2 went for 900. Tewantin, which was 500k plus at the GFC) was on sale for 220/250. My neighbours bought in 2006 for 2.4 mill, sold in 2016 for 1.4 (ouch). Same place resold 2 years later for...1.4, and then another 2 years later for...1.4 ! Their neighbours (2 from us) bought in 2016 for 1.2, sold in 2019 for 1.2, those owners had to sell a year later and got...1.2 and the purchaser lived there, did some work, and sold in 2021 for....2.9 !!!!! WTF we all said.
And now..... not getting anything above 2 selling in here...thank god, its just not healthy.
The house in that article is on Noosa Sound - they regularly top 10mil and more - 10 mil is a knock down. That area is not your average punter - its business people and sports people tucking their money away for lots of reasons.
monkeyboy wrote:My neighbours bought in 2006 for 2.4 mill, sold in 2016 for 1.4 (ouch).
Rinse and repeat coming, however it won't take 10 years for a 40% correction!!!
monkeyboy wrote:My neighbours bought in 2006 for 2.4 mill, sold in 2016 for 1.4 (ouch). Same place resold 2 years later for...1.4, and then another 2 years later for...1.4 ! Their neighbours (2 from us) bought in 2016 for 1.2, sold in 2019 for 1.2, those owners had to sell a year later and got...1.2 and the purchaser lived there, did some work, and sold in 2021 for....2.9 !!!!!
nothing spectacular in 15 years!!! Imagine the pain the fools buying at the top now are going to be in in 3-5 years.
donweather wrote:monkeyboy wrote:My neighbours bought in 2006 for 2.4 mill, sold in 2016 for 1.4 (ouch). Same place resold 2 years later for...1.4, and then another 2 years later for...1.4 ! Their neighbours (2 from us) bought in 2016 for 1.2, sold in 2019 for 1.2, those owners had to sell a year later and got...1.2 and the purchaser lived there, did some work, and sold in 2021 for....2.9 !!!!!
nothing spectacular in 15 years!!! Imagine the pain the fools buying at the top now are going to be in in 3-5 years.
heard that before. meanwhile rents keep going up.
batfink wrote:Perhaps you’re right sypkan, but I was around during the 90’s, didn’t own a home and rentals were available and pretty easily affordable. There wasn’t any great ‘living in poverty’ in my memory.
At the moment anyone who is renting is mostly doing it tough. Under 30’s are basically screwed unless they have a real high paying gig. So many are in low paid service industry jobs that can’t afford basic rent. Genuine hardship today is much more likely than the 90’s, in my opinion.
Agree totally Batfink.
Then add 200K or 500K or whatever extra workers to compete for those low paid jobs each year, it's insane what is being foisted on young Australians.
sypkan wrote:"...that's different to the 90's, where my area had 40% youth unemployment..."
its significant beyond available emphasis the formative influence this can have on a generation...
interestingly, i read the other day china is now experiencing 20% youth unemployment... how that plays out over there is anybody's guess...
Oh shit yeah. I learned in that time you can't depend on sources of income from things like jobs that someone else provided, and that in severe recessions degrees revert to paper value, ha!
donweather wrote:How's the market's reaction overnight to a slowing of the US CPI rise. Insane. Imagine how they'll react once CPI actually starts to roll over!!!!
All eyes on the 10 year UST
monkeyboy wrote:Don't kid yourselves. It's a statistical adjustment. Wait for the "core PCE" https://wolfstreet.com/2022/11/10/services-inflation-spiked-to-second-hi...
So they massively adjusted health insurance down? That'll teach inflation a lesson it won't forget in a hurry...
velocityjohnno wrote:donweather wrote:How's the market's reaction overnight to a slowing of the US CPI rise. Insane. Imagine how they'll react once CPI actually starts to roll over!!!!
All eyes on the 10 year UST
Are you not entertained? You just got a taste of the 'Everything Trade'.
— Going John Galt (@GoingJGalt) November 11, 2022
I explain it all here (no paywall) 👇https://t.co/drCO34vQ9R pic.twitter.com/404l3NEx8S
John Galt dude also writes some interesting stuff too, if you don't already follow him.
donweather wrote:monkeyboy wrote:My neighbours bought in 2006 for 2.4 mill, sold in 2016 for 1.4 (ouch). Same place resold 2 years later for...1.4, and then another 2 years later for...1.4 ! Their neighbours (2 from us) bought in 2016 for 1.2, sold in 2019 for 1.2, those owners had to sell a year later and got...1.2 and the purchaser lived there, did some work, and sold in 2021 for....2.9 !!!!!
nothing spectacular in 15 years!!! Imagine the pain the fools buying at the top now are going to be in in 3-5 years.
Yeah - nuts. As with most things - if you buy well you will do well. It's not the price you sell at, it's the price you buy at.
thx gsco
Can you see bull divs?
nice link btw, I found it agreeable
velocityjohnno wrote:thx gsco
Can you see bull divs?
for instance the spx rsi?
Yep, seeing stuff in multiple timeframes on multiple indicators and on many underlyings tends to stack the weight of evidence in favour of a certain view. Like Paul Atreides or a Guild Navigator high on spice, one can never have certainty, only a strong weight of evidence in favour of a happening. Juxtapose the bonds to the stocks, for example
velocityjohnno wrote:Yep, seeing stuff in multiple timeframes on multiple indicators and on many underlyings tends to stack the weight of evidence in favour of a certain view. Like Paul Atreides or a Guild Navigator high on spice, one can never have certainty, only a strong weight of evidence in favour of a happening. Juxtapose the bonds to the stocks, for example
I noticed you quoted Dune series on multiple occasions. You must be a fan? I’m a huge fan, there’s so much to learn from these books.
wow I just noticed that the US govt interest expense on its debt is massive at $747 billion/yr, is rising quickly due to increasing interest rates, and is forecast to soon be the biggest expense item in the US govt budget (from This Week in Charts):
Interesting to note that the Nobel prize in economics just got awarded to people who advocated for policies that significantly contributed to such a dysfunctional situation...
No prizes for guessing why the US is front-loading interest rate increases in order to get on top of inflation. They literally can't afford for inflation and interest rates to stay "higher for longer".
I also noticed the debate about raising the US govt debt ceiling is starting to pop up again... But of course this is the wrong solution. The US govt needs to start reducing its debt burden, not increasing its ceiling allowance.
Bar Beach in Newcastle of all places is going berserk. Particularly Memorial Drive, which is now the most expensive street in regional NSW, beating places like Byron Bay. Amazing.
https://www.realestateview.com.au/news/nsw/bar-beach-street-named-most-e...
tubeshooter wrote:Bar Beach in Newcastle of all places is going berserk. Particularly Memorial Drive, which is now the most expensive street in regional NSW, beating places like Byron Bay. Amazing.
https://www.realestateview.com.au/news/nsw/bar-beach-street-named-most-e...
That article is written misleadingly. Their quoted figures are only a rise of 20% over two years. Hardly booming compared to areas like Nth NSW.
Hey Flollo, I'm a recent fan, and going through the books after my son, who's loved the fantasty/sci fi genre for years, recommended them to me. I was very much into great literature when young and studying it. I find Herbert (and his wife!) write politics and motivation really well; when I see the ecology he put in and remind myself that was 1962 or so I'm blown away; and they are phenomenally good at writing powerful, mystical women too! Enjoyed the visual scope of the recent movie, which came really close to the effect Star Wars or Empire's landscapes had as a kid.
When it comes to groping through sentiment and "seeing" the future, I'm fascinated in how he writes Paul's interpretation of his spice visions, describing it as being in a sea of dunes; you can see clearly from a crest, but soon after everything may not reveal itself to you being in a trough. Sometimes those crest points become immediately obvious, sometimes everything is concealed.
Edit: the effect of Dune has been profound: if you look at faster than light travel in something like the Warhammer 40K universe, it is permitted by the God Emperor (dead but kept alive) permitting travel through what is essentially the hell/afterlife dimension, and ensuring safe navigation. This is also a theme in the very scary film "Event Horizon": go there in search of FTL and be careful what you come back with.
gsco wrote:velocityjohnno wrote:thx gsco
Can you see bull divs?
for instance the spx rsi?
cool
now can someone explain it?
...to us plebians...
(I see two squiggly lines following roughly the same path)
google and my ignorance tells me now is not the time to buy, but it's nowhere near as blown out as back in july
and, while Im showing my ignorance...
seen a lot historical charts getting a run lately, that basically confirm the above...
my thought bubble is, with all this money that has been injected into the system, could historical trends possibly not play out?
ie. with basically 15 years of money printing, then a massive corona injection... could possibly everything just be worth more? ...on paper...
ie. the whole thing is inflated I guess...
(which would be a bubble... normally... but now there's just so much more money in the system (1/3 more i read, which is significant to say the least) ...that that money needs to sit somewhere...)
especially as evidence shows it largely went straight to stocks and house prices
possibly... 'this time is different'
all in here Sypkan
https://vdoc.pub/documents/stan-weinsteins-secrets-for-profiting-in-bull...
in fact, the keys to the kingdom are in this one. Took me 8 months to get through it and really learn it. Can't vouch for the link as I have paper copies - you can always buy a hardcopy too if you wish. If you have Arts degree research skills you will absorb...
velocityjohnno wrote:all in here Sypkan
https://vdoc.pub/documents/stan-weinsteins-secrets-for-profiting-in-bull...
in fact, the keys to the kingdom are in this one. Took me 8 months to get through it and really learn it. Can't vouch for the link as I have paper copies - you can always buy a hardcopy too if you wish. If you have Arts degree research skills you will absorb...
thanks, i think...
8 months... ya got any dot points?
I like dot points!
joking (half joking...) will take a look
sypkan wrote:gsco wrote:velocityjohnno wrote:thx gsco
Can you see bull divs?
for instance the spx rsi?
cool
now can someone explain it?
...to us plebians...
Syp, in general superannuation/managed/hedge etc fund managers tend approach financial market trading and investing in various ways. Possibly consider the Investopedia article Fundamental vs Technical Analysis. I'd also consider algorithmic trading as a general broad class or approach, and is what a lot of hedge funds tend to do.
I'd hazard to guess that a lot of the public tends to think about financial market trading in terms of the approach called technical analysis, also called charting, which is what the book VJ posted is largely about, and involves trading largely based on chart patterns or formations.
I think it's a long, complicated and hazardous journey to try to develop a profitable trading system or program - whether technical, fundamental or algo - and one that more often than not tends to end in financial ruin. I'd suggest that this is the main reason why the financial planning industry and passive ETFs exist.
Yep, tldr, don't quit your day job haha! Complicated and hazardous is the start of it. But the simple recognition one can learn from it is invaluable.
But Syp it is possible to do well with it, just understand it's just like any other profession - will require years, devotion, respect, wide reading, some autodidact required, and strong focus; and professionalism. A fusion of risk management, thorough testing, accurate action, reflection - and perhaps the hardest part - introspection, for you are going to have to face your own psychology at some point. Dr Alexander Elder's book is very good too. All my opinion, not financial advice.
Hooray for regional property!
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/11/regional-property-markets-brush...
Any anecdotes welcome.
velocityjohnno wrote:Hooray for regional property!
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/11/regional-property-markets-brush...
Any anecdotes welcome.
So bugger all at this stage? It looks like a flat curve over the next 2-3 years followed by another boom with cheap money once the rates come back down.
And a discussion of money laundering in Australian property, anti-money laundering agreements, and resistance to such:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/11/aussie-property-a-major-interna...
No crash in my regional area.
Maybe a correction in the vicinity of 5% for properties at the bottom of the scale i.e. unrenovated units but everything else seems a similar price to what it was 8 months ago.
"For example, the Richmond Tweed region has seen prices fall the furthest from peak (-6.3%)."
Thats misleading.
As Andy said- no drop for most coastal areas.
But huge chunks of real estate got submerged in the autumn floods and are now for sale at heavy discounts.
Yep, North and South Lismore about 50% of the asking price of pre-floods.
velocityjohnno wrote:Hooray for regional property!
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/11/regional-property-markets-brush...
Any anecdotes welcome.
"The exception is more expensive regions – particularly those that were in high demand in the pandemic – have seen home prices falling fastest as higher interest rates are affecting higher-priced regions most.
For example, the Richmond Tweed region has seen prices fall the furthest from peak (-6.3%). Covid favourites including the Sunshine Coast and Geelong have also seen prices falling further from their peak than many other regions."
And these will continue to fall the hardest, particularly once financial stress starts to kick in, combined with the mass AirBNB properties that will have no one in them later in 2023.
freeride76 wrote:"For example, the Richmond Tweed region has seen prices fall the furthest from peak (-6.3%)."
Thats misleading.
As Andy said- no drop for most coastal areas.
But huge chunks of real estate got submerged in the autumn floods and are now for sale at heavy discounts.
Definitely been a significant slow down in houses selling from say the SN office down to Mooball. Some places have been on the market for months now (there's a reason for this as they're asking fcking stupid prices).
donweather wrote:And these will continue to fall the hardest, particularly once financial stress starts to kick in, combined with the mass AirBNB properties that will have no one in them later in 2023.
Curious to see what happens with Air BnB in longer term. Houses on the MNC are still going for $1000/night over the upcoming Xmas period …. who are these people paying these prices ?!
donweather wrote:Definitely been a significant slow down in houses selling from say the SN office down to Mooball. Some places have been on the market for months now (there's a reason for this as they're asking fcking stupid prices).
Agreed. Prices don't seem to have changed a huge amount though (apart from the crazy ones right at the top); it's just the sell-through rate is significantly lower.
Impossible to predict what might happen in the future though. I get the feeling the coastal Tweed region is largely insulated from nation-wide (or even region-wide) trends.
The Lennox-Ballina area still seems to be in big demand for both purchasers and renters.
Appears that there's still a heap of Sydney-siders keen to move up here and continue their interior designing business or whatever, and live the beach and Insta life.
Definitely insulated to a large extent. Prices haven't changed much though there are less properties on the market and they're hanging about longer.
Don and Ben you're probably right about the very top end as well, my neighbour wanted circa $3.3m but no way he's going to get it.
He might have got it at the end of last year but for now it ain't happening.
Sounds like the south west too, overnight/ sight unseen sales dropped a bit but sales still going hard otherwise and not seeing any drop in prices. Not much at all available for renters and even the holiday rentals/ airbnb are already 93% booked for the summer (according to the tourism minister a couple of weeks ago) .
As for the lineups... back to being packed when / if offshore , the backpackers are back (but currently huddled somewhere out of the wintery conditons that continue) , the amount of BMW,s Teslas and other luxury cars with new MR winecountry "local" numberplates sitting on your arse and overtaking wildly has exploded off the chart, effulence and affluence combined.
Distracted wrote:donweather wrote:And these will continue to fall the hardest, particularly once financial stress starts to kick in, combined with the mass AirBNB properties that will have no one in them later in 2023.
Curious to see what happens with Air BnB in longer term. Houses on the MNC are still going for $1000/night over the upcoming Xmas period …. who are these people paying these prices ?!
city folk immune to interest rate rises who benefited from the covid handout rich get richer bonanza.
slight drop off in price in my hinterland area. e.g. neighbouring acreage (nearly 30) went on market for 1.4M about 2.5 months ago. I thought it'd be snapped up within days, but see it just yesterday went under offer for 1.35. Not much difference really. But a few years ago pre-covid probably 800K would have seemed a normal price. Plenty still coming onto the market too, I sense some wanting to get amongst that cash grab before it might drop off more... but maybe it wont drop off big time here, when viewed/marketed as part of the Noosa hinterland...
Re- Byron developments
Seems like there’s enough people with enough wealth in assets to perpetuate this for a long time yet.
Gentrification and neo-feudalism at work
That looks like a nice development
I think that "nice" would very much depend on your point of view.
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers