House prices
Andy - Of course it’s ridiculous. Just relatively good value compared to most other places.
1995: 1000m land @ Ocean beach $10K. Surfboard $500
2002: 1000m land @ Ocean beach $50K Surfboard $500
2021: 1000m land @ Ocean beach $250K Surfboard $750
Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.
All good. I just didn't see that price as justified for where it's located. Just been for a beautiful bush walk 5 minutes from home. Will post some photos.
palmymick wrote:Everything that goes up inevitably comes down tho
not really.
not when it comes to coastal real estate.
but I'd be happy to see a real life example of coastal real estate that has gone down in value.
https://yachthub.com/list/yachts-for-sale/used/sail-monohulls/colin-mudi...
Can't get much more coastal...........Good price for a large steel "house"
The block in the example above ( 1995, 2002, 2021 ) was worth $350K in 2006. Now it’s worth $250K. There’s your real life example.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/07/08/philip-lowe-r...
I’ve posted here and elsewhere that nobody really has a clue what’s coming. Not my original thoughts in any way, just reading a lot of professional opinions, like this one from Alan Kohler.
I have the opportunity to sell up and head somewhere else, but it’s a tough decision. Moving away from your kids is a tough decision whichever way you look at it, then you have your friends, real old mates that go back to school days, surfing buddies of 30 years standing etc. It’s not an easy decision to pull up stumps.
My mum and dad did though. We were a big family, 9 kids lived in St George area, so I think they had seen enough of us, and they moved to Shoalhaven Heads which is only two hours away. Dad figured that if they had a nice place near the ocean we would be down visiting enough to keep in touch, which largely we did. Weekends away down there all the time kept the place buzzing, but he didn’t see much of his old friends.
I still see that as a hard thing to do.
Blowin wrote:The block in the example above ( 1995, 2002, 2021 ) was worth $350K in 2006. Now it’s worth $250K. There’s your real life example.
Really, wow.
I stand corrected.
Remember the GFC Flogging
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/gold-coast-values-h...
I reckon that Denmark block ( and other rural WA purchases made at the same time roughly) is an outlier. Occurred at the time when highvis outnumbered slacks and jackets 10:1 at perth airport. also keen to see median prices 2007 vs 2021 on the goldie.
425 K
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-04-30/report-reveals-lower-gold-coast-h...
2021 = 1.1 mill
Thanks udo.
@Bonza, there's a median price function on this site, but only over about the last 8 years. Just type in the town you're looking for at top right in the 'Explore other suburbs' tab (doesn't do multiple post codes) and scroll down to 'Median Property Price' and there are 3 tabs, 'House, Units, Trend'. Click on Trend and then you have to change to years which is at bottom left of graph 'Monthly'. Easy as.
https://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/burleigh-heads-4220-qld
It's obviously an outlier.
maybe WA has some more outliers but is there anything on the east coast that has dropped in price?
Point being Freeride, the price rise was speculative and unsustained. The rising prices in Denmark in the early 2000’s seemed just as unassailable and irreversible to the people in that town as you currently feel about the house prices in your town. You think that the East Coast is immune to the same outcome? You think that your Ponzi is the first Ponzi in history to rise to infinity?
I don't think infinity but I don't see it as a Ponzi in quite the same way.
I think there is a fundamental position of high demand and low supply and I can't see that changing anytime soon.
especially when you throw in good surf into the equation and a whole generation of cashed up baby boomers with huge amounts of equity to play with.
Amazon Prime has just launched a reality TV show about real estate agents in Sydney and their luxe lifestyle. If that ain’t signalling the top I don’t know what is.
god I hope so.
there would have to be a significant crash in capital city real estate prices before coastal prices did anything .
thats the horse dragging the cart.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/08/more-than-80-of-a...
Here's a little bit of hard data to use rather than listening to certain people's feelpinions about house prices.
Thanks west.
@blowin. Yup saw the advert. Lost a little bit of the will to live.
Where'd that come from VL?
Got an axe to grind?
get a few out there Andy?
I got my three and got out quickly.
surprisingly warm.
The patented FR strike mission :)
Yeah got a couple but can't say I was too excited. Stayed out for an hour or so, got a few then went home to mow the lawn.
Water was nice, wave rider buoy is showing 21.7 but I assume it was a touch cooler in close.
1. It’s a report by the Australia China relations institute.google them
2. It ignores decades of pent up demand thanks to in part foreign investment of which Chinese investors are a part of.
3. This is a rort: “ Non-Australian residents are prohibited from buying existing houses, and the Foreign Investment Review Board says foreign investment should be restricted to new properties that “create additional jobs” and “increase Australia’s housing stock. Exemptions for existing houses are made if the building will be redeveloped and “will genuinely increase Australia’s housing stock”, or if a foreign company is purchasing a dwelling for Australia-based staff.
4. This is not racist.
A very Guardian article, no real surprises there.
bonza, Foreign investment in Australian housing has collapsed but prices have gone through the roof.
But apparently (according to your argument) the price rises of today are the result of foreigners buying houses in the Australia in the past, going back a decade.
Mate, that's some serious tortured logic.
The Guardian warming up the motor on the Mass Immigration Ponzi propaganda machine. Ready for another attempt at crop dusting the Aussie population with more lies, falsehoods and egregious bullshit.
Anyone interested in telling them those days are over or do we just let them go on bleating their tripe until the reality dawns on them under its own volition?
Read my comment and try again VL. Prices have been booming for decades = pent up demand.
Which aspects of the story at question do you believe to be 'lies, falsehoods and egregious bullshit' Blowin. I mean, I'm sure you've read it and the above is your considered opinion.
If you have reservations about having a population increase the size of Wollongong every year you must be racist.
Now that's tortured logic.
Gee I dunno about that Andy. Is anyone actually saying that? Or, perhaps, would you really like them to be saying that?
Yes JQ they are. Treasury, big business and the current fed government.
Yes JQ they are. Treasury, big business and the current fed government.
"In 1998 it was thought that [net overseas migration] would grow our population annually by around 70,00, or at the most, 90,000. In the last 12 months, Australia has added 231,900 through net migration which is more than 2.5 times even the high-forecast of two decades ago."
https://mccrindle.com.au/insights/blogarchive/the-rise-and-rise-of-austr...
Can you link me to a statement to that effect bonza. I mean a literal statement saying that, not something that you infer to mean that.
Andy M , you're quoting a very old blog post there bro. 2017 my good man.
The fact is housing prices are rising at extremely high rates
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-01/home-prices-rise-at-fastest-pace-...
while the population is actually falling.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-24/population-declines-as-covid-bord...
Best to check dates before linking articles.
The bit where it claims extra demand doesn’t contribute to increased prices is a cracker. I mean, prices are booming now on record low interest rates as bidders push past each other with higher bids- what do you reckon happens if you add an extra few thousand bidders?
You think it’ll either :
A/ Contribute to even greater rises in prices
Or
B/ Not affect prices at all
Or
C/ Push prices down.
Look, the Guardian would have you believe it’s C if they could, but they’ll settle for B if they can even get away with it. It’s up to you what you believe but there’s only one true answer. BTW, the answer is A.
The Guardian asked the question in its poll : Do you think Chinese investors push up house prices? Australians answered in the affirmative because that’s the factually correct answer. Did the Guardian ask the question:Do you think Chinese investors are contributing as much to house price increases now as they were a few years ago? No, the Guardian did not. So what is the point of the article? It’s dog whistling for the Anti Australian culture vultures out there. It’s for the people who want to wring their hands over how racist they think Aussies are. Those same people always imagine the Guardian asks its polling questions exclusively to Caucasian Australians and never Chinese Australians.
And that is why the Guardian is full of shit.
Anyway, the point is moot. Why in God’s name would we consider selling precious Australian land and houses to a foreigner? There’s no future in it whatsoever. China knows this and that’s why they don’t do it.
None of the questions posed by the Guardian are contingent on whether the answer is currently applicable. Yet the Guardian purposefully misrepresents the results to claim that Australians believe the current price rises are predominantly or even majorly the result of foreign buyers. The article is full of shit. The Guardian is full of shit.
The Guardian’s headline and lede:
More than 80% of Australians mistakenly believe Chinese investors are driving up house prices
In survey 82% of respondents blame buyers from China despite data showing record-low foreign investment
The Guardian’s actual questions:
“Of those surveyed by UTS, 82% agreed that “foreign buyers from China drive up Australian housing prices”, 69% agreed that “Chinese investors in Australian real estate have made it difficult for first home buyers in Australia to enter the market” and 78% said Australia should “restrict the amount of investment in residential real estate that is permitted from Chinese investors”, even though restrictions already apply to all foreign investors.“
Jeez Vic, I think the increase in population in Australia is pretty self evident, regardless of the COVID period.
And if you're insinuating that I think population growth is the sole cause of real estate price increases, you're wrong.
I made a simple statement about population increase with no reference to its relation to real estate.
I do wonder if you're acting in good faith here mate, or if you're trying for a bit of a smear and a discredit.
And which bit is that Blowin, quote it for me. To be clear, The Guardian didn't ask the question did they, it was survey conducted by the University of Technology Sydney.
" Did the Guardian ask the question:Do you think Chinese investors are contributing as much to house price increases now as they were a few years ago?"
No, Blowin, The Guardian didn't ask ANY of those questions did they.
So when Eliza Owen (head of research for Australia at CoreLogic) said:
"“The overarching story is that the numbers [of foreign investors] are not significant enough to contribute to most of the housing price increases we have seen. The current upswing is a function of low interest rates, high levels of owner-occupier demand, and relatively low levels of supply.
“We just haven’t had new migrant arrivals, or it’s been at record lows since the onset of Covid,”
She was lying?
I realise it's important to you that The Guardian is the boogey man, but you've missed the mark here.
JQ, as an example, the Greens dropped any talk of decreasing immigration/addressing population increase as an environmental issue decades ago so as not to be lumped in with Pauline Hanson and risk being called racist.
Part of the bread and butter of the "socially progressive Left" is labelling any questioning of rates of population growth as being xenophobic or racist.
As evidenced by the Guardian article.
Could you quote the section of the article in The Guardian where it says that Andy? I think that's you inferring that.
What have The Greens got to do with it, I don't think they are posting in this forum or related to the article in question?
@JQ. Population levels will return to pre COVID average levels of >190 000 as soon as we are vaxxed if not sooner. The news is abuzz with this. I think population 2019/20 was around 240000?
The gong is <300,000? Business wants to play catch up to meet the difference
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/260b-benefit-from-post-covid-19-mig...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/migration-rules-reviewed-as-gove...
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/return-to-high-migrant-intak...
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australians-won-t-do-this-worker-shor...
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/immigration-the-missing-piece-of-th...
The point JQ is that they don’t say it. You can’t be for environmentalism and unsustained population growth. That’s why they fucked it
JQ, you asked “ Is anyone actually saying that?” and I’m saying that it’s an extremely common thought process, starting with the Greens.
Your passive aggressive second paragraph is pretty ugly.
Why be obtuse?
Ok, so no real statements then bonza, just your inference. I don't doubt that some people do say that, people say all sorts of things. But in the context of your statement 'they' are "Treasury, big business and the current fed government." and you've been unable to provide any statements of theirs to that effect.
Well to my mind Andy, the topic at hand concerned the news article and people contributing to this forum.
absolutely its my inference. i base my judgement on the information at hand. do you dispute this? here's another 2.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/what-the-2021...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-12/budget-migration-borders-closed-2...
https://population.gov.au/docs/2021-22_budget_overview.pdf
Immigration is a hot topic. Our politicians are cowards. do you think they are going to come out and say a specific number? of course not - see my greens statement. But you can easily "infer" what the plan is based on the reporting of the IGR and treasury budgets.
so i put it to you - what's your projections for immigration post covid?
maybe we should have another bet on this thread?
I don't dispute the desires of the government and big business to have high immigration levels bonza, not at all, it's plain to anyone who'd care to look.
Your original position, backing Andys comment that "If you have reservations about having a population increase the size of Wollongong every year you must be racist." hasn't been supported, from what I can see, by any of the links you've posted. None of which, from what I can see, mention xenophobia or racism.
Ok good. I was only arguing the numbers and intent.
but for the record it pisses me off that people equate arguing pop numbers to racism. its dumb. and its why the greens and labour suck right now.
i don't have any links. just feels
all the best JQ.
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers