House prices
AndyM wrote:The homeless and displaced just need to harden up and move to places like Russell Island ;)
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-russell+island-432309478
You know thats not what I'm saying and never suggested anything close to that, what im suggesting is that lower income earners need to be more creative to get into the market just like i did. (and others have)
Hopefully some grommet reads my post and thinks shit he has a point, gets online finds a cheap block or house to rent out somewhere and gets into the market, if they dont have a partner, go halfs with a sibling if can, get creative.
As you have shown with your link $250 a week rental, if say the purchase prices was $200K which there is plenty of houses there much better for that price, the loan repayments would be about $800 a month (20% deposit) that would actually mean it's positively geared, maybe even enough left over to cover rates etc.
So much potential.
udo wrote:https://mypolice.qld.gov.au/bayside/2021/03/16/russell-island-crime-wrap...
ha ha Udo I'm trying to remain positive here
Positive slant, who wants to lives somewhere where there is no action at all.
I have a 6 year old RAV4 and a "Designed in New Zealand made in China" puffer jacket. Hope I'll be welcome in Nick Bone territory. Can't say I've ever tried on those Lulu Lemon tights but maybe Zen can give them a test run.
Ahem.
So we still, after 30 or 40 years have serious substance abuse issues, no work on the island, issues with access etc etc.
Again Indo, just say you’ve been in an area for generations and in the past 20 years shit has gone crazy and you’re being booted out into the boonies.
You might look at it as an opportunity to get “creative”, I see it as something less positive.
Maybe something like a pretty serious issue with social cohesion, as mentioned in that CSIRO report I posted a while back.
Do you ever have a squiz at that?
Even just the executive summary??
With those land prices being so cheap on Russel Island I wonder if they actually have dwelling entitlements. Can be a problem with old subdivisions. If you can build may also be issues with septic tanks and disposal areas on such small blocks in Sandy soils.
AndyM wrote:Ahem.
So we still, after 30 or 40 years have serious substance abuse issues, no work on the island, issues with access etc etc.Again Indo, just say you’ve been in an area for generations and in the past 20 years shit has gone crazy and you’re being booted out into the boonies.
You might look at it as an opportunity to get “creative”, I see it as something less positive.
Maybe something like a pretty serious issue with social cohesion, as mentioned in that CSIRO report I posted a while back.
Do you ever have a squiz at that?
Even just the executive summary??
Why dont you get it?
Just because you buy somewhere does not mean you have to live there, or live there all your life, you use getting into the market as a stepping stone, especially a positively geared property basically pays for itself.
Anyway im not going to convince you otherwise, your mind is obviously set for some reason that this generation is the hard done by generation, which is BS.
Every generation has it challenges mine was coming out of school in a recession we apparently had to have with crazy high unemployment and a peak interest rates of 17.5.
My fathers was much worse, it was getting sent to go fight a war in Vietnam because his unlucky number came up, lucky for me he came back alive in one piece with only mental health issues.
My grandparents it was the great depression and world war 2
This generation it's needing to be more creative to getting into the housing market...cry me a river.
Like i said before Im happy to give a quick look at the link you provided if you point me where to look exactly as it was made up of quite a number of reports or whatever they are.
udo wrote:https://propertyupdate.com.au/the-russell-island-land-scam-a-lesson-for-...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-23/coronavirus-creates-property-boom...
First link is very old history that predates when i even bought there.
Second link is interesting read though.
Currently a bit of a push by the Russell Island marketing commission to attract new residents.
"Every generation has it challenges mine was coming out of school in a recession we apparently had to have with crazy high unemployment and a peak interest rates of 17.5."
Don't forget all those years spent on the dole while surfing.
Terrible challenge trying to get your form in from Denpassar.
Denpassar would have been a real challenge Stu........Mailing the form in with one of those blue and red bordered Air Mail envelopes......
Carnarvon was not so bad.....just coincide the lodgment with the fortnightly food/water/shower Bluff town runs...
At one stage a close mate's and my form were due on the same day. We'd put each others form in so only had to leave the surf zone to Adelaide once a month. Golden days.
@indo
“ Why dont you get it?”
Oh I dunno, it’s just this totally unfounded feeling I have that we might, sometime in the distant future, create problems if we treat housing as a speculative asset where if you don’t keep up then you can just fuck off and die.
" a positively geared property basically pays for itself."
No it doesn't. A positively geared rental property is paid for by a renter, statistically more likely to be a poorer and more disadvantaged person. They use their labor and income to pay off an asset that you - who has paid nothing for it - will keep at the end, and likely gain a dramatic capital gain too. You are hoarding a human right and making poorer people pay to access it even though you aren't using it and don't need it. And in a very real way, it's turning big profits from land that was stolen from indigenous people. I can't see how you can square that hole ethically without simply saying "I wanted to make money". It's sad, even if it is entirely normalized and celebrated in our stupid, failing country.
Well said danandan.
And Indo,the mindless consumerism you talked of earlier is exactly what the big corporations want. Of coarse the consuner is complicit. There is endless cheap crap you can buy.
Meanwhile the essential things in life such as shelter,energy, food and transport seem to be getting more expensive.
dandandan wrote:" a positively geared property basically pays for itself."
No it doesn't. A positively geared rental property is paid for by a renter, statistically more likely to be a poorer and more disadvantaged person. They use their labor and income to pay off an asset that you - who has paid nothing for it - will keep at the end, and likely gain a dramatic capital gain too. You are hoarding a human right and making poorer people pay to access it even though you aren't using it and don't need it. And in a very real way, it's turning big profits from land that was stolen from indigenous people. I can't see how you can square that hole ethically without simply saying "I wanted to make money". It's sad, even if it is entirely normalized and celebrated in our stupid, failing country.
Hear, hear.
I’m looking at buying an investment property in the next few years with the sole intention of it being something for my kids to inherit when I’m gone.
This is coming from someone who was raised by a single parent and lived in rentals their whole life.
What’s wrong with wanting to work hard to get ahead in life and being able to give your kids a better life than you?
What would be your suggestion Danx3 if you don’t agree with buying a second property?
Unless I’ve done an Indo and completely mis-read your post, if I have I just woke up ok, it’s early!
Goofy - The point is that the Australian economy has been consciously steered towards shelter becoming the primary investment vehicle. Someone like yourself should never have been driven to the conclusion that buying a second property is the best option for your future. Owning multiple properties has always been an option but the economy has been engineered so that buying investment properties is basically the only option.
Aussie houses should not have been designated as a global market with tax breaks and financial advantages.
It’s not your fault that you’ve been steered towards buying another house to secure your children’s future. You -and particularly your children- are victims of this situation as surely as anyone. Its a set up. As many paths as possible in the rat’s maze of neoliberal capitalism have been directed towards the acquisition of debt. Housing is the number one bait. Whether it’s yourself, your children or the person who rents your property paying the debt doesn’t matter as long as the debt burden is assumed in order to grow the financial Ponzi.
I know I have pretty radical views on it compared to most people and unfortunately a combination of gutless greedy government and a powerful real estate/financial market means you can do whatever you like. I think lots of landlords are morally corrupt and either intellectually incapable of realising what they’re doing or their heart is so dead inside they don’t care. But I place no judgment on anyone just trying to dig their way to the surface out of the hole they were born into. But it raises some thoughts for me.
Who or what are you trying to get ahead of? It’s a phrase that drives me bonkers but I feel like it refers to that squeeze we feel when the world is pushing us out. Wealthy people feel that too, but not in a materially genuine way. Poor families (like mine growing up and presumably yours, both our families rented for life) have genuine fear of being left behind because it has genuine material outcomes - homelessness, food insecurity, poverty. So I get it. What bothers me is that the solution many take is to just shift that pressure to someone else. It’s a symptom of our failed system that after a lifetime of seeing your parent pay off someone’s else house and transfer the value of their income and labor not to their own kids but to their landlords, that instead of saying “that shouldn’t happen to anyone” you’re saying “I’m going to do that to someone else”. Of course we need rentals and there’s a spectrum of how landlords treat us, but most often it’s an act of transferring wealth from the economic bottom to the top. And in contemporary Australia many are stuck in a cruel and heartless rental market due to the continued concentration of that wealth and capital in the hands of those already very far ahead and always trying to get that little bit further. That’s playing out right up the eastern seaboard as we speak.
As for what you should do to secure your kids future? Unfortunately you probably should perpetuate the same conditions that left both our families poor and assetless at the end of their lives and just buy a rental property. Ideally homes wouldn’t be a speculative investment option for people at all, and that hoarding them from others wouldn’t be the easiest way to make yourself financially secure. It’d be better that if people had spare money to invest for their future that it went into something productive for our society and not something that fundamentally works by holding the veiled threat of homelessness over people’s heads. We’re so politically entrenched in that system (the Tas premier’s wealth increased by millions during our housing crisis thanks his 14 properties) and so many people aspire to take part in that system because our whole society celebrates it. When you add to that the enormous financial services sector that exists to service, you realise it will take the kind of political leadership that most of us can’t imagine exists to turn it around. (Or a very well coordinated rent strike!). Until then, maybe draw up in the contract so that when your kids sell the property one day for a big profit, they’ll have to share some of it with the tenants who paid for it and the local mob whose land it was before it was taken from them!
Okay Blowin said it better without writing a whole novel about it haha.
Thanks Dan , and blowin, I’m at work now so just skimmed through your replies but I’ll digest them properly tonight.
One thing quickly, I totally agree with your last sentence Dan. When you purchase a property a % of that should go to the original inhabitants of the land. As to what size %, fucked if I know.
Cheers for the reply
Thanks Dan, you've laid that out very well and provided a great insight into the current situation. But yes, how do we change the system/thinking?
Incentivise a productive alternative so that housing is no longer the low-hanging fruit of investment.
No idea how that'd be done though.
Pops wrote:Incentivise a productive alternative so that housing is no longer the low-hanging fruit of investment.
No idea how that'd be done though.
I dont think anything will ever help much, for the simple fact land is limited and demand always growing, so prices will always rise, unless you want to release huge areas of land, but eventually things will catch up again.
Add to that building cost are ever increasing, labor, materials, regulation and standards on things like energy ratings all push up new house prices, that also put pressure on existing housing prices.
Investment in housing is also important as you always need rentals, peoples life's and needs are every changing so you always need a percentage of rentals.
What we need is tax incentives to encourage empty houses(over 10% of all houses) to be permanently rented, so the market has more permeant rentals.
Way to many comments to reply to here.
Reality is you can blame the government or blame investors or the system or whoever, but realestate prices are rising at crazy rates all around the world not just Australia, yeah sure there is countless factors and low interest rates are also a big one, but end of the day the big one is supply and demand, and that will never get better especially if you want to live near the coast.
If you are not in the market then you have the choice to keep renting and paying someone else's mortgage off or find another way to get into the market, like buying somewhere that isn't where you want to live right now or going half's with a family member or friend, if it was me id be thinking of cheap land near decent waves for retirement, in my mind id rather be living in a desert shack near decent waves when im old than still worrying about paying someones rent, but hey each to their own.
BTW. Im not coming from an area of privilege at all, i couldn't afford to buy where i live now if i had to pay current prices, ive pretty much always been a low income earner i now earn a decent hourly rate but work low hours per week due to family commitments etc (currently sick at home with gastro :(
Only time ive earnt decent money was when i employed guys, but i soon went fuck this im earning more money but paying way to much tax, with ten times more headaches and stress.
To get into the market i had a shitty landscape labouring job earning just over 30K living alone in a caravan in a caravan park away from my circle of friends etc, but for a year i saved every single dollar i could, literally didnt buy take away once, and ended up with about with almost 18K saved.
Pops wrote:Incentivise a productive alternative so that housing is no longer the low-hanging fruit of investment.
No idea how that'd be done though.
A good start would be to limit the number of AirBNB/Homestays to one property per investor's registered address.
The amount of small communities in mainly coastal areas of Australia being affected by big city money snapping up multiple "cheap" properties for holiday rentals would be astounding I reckon.
The result will be a housing crisis like we've never seen and is going to be extremely difficult to remedy the further down this path we go.
you do have to wonder if eventually there would be social unrest created.
Freeride- Probably.
That’s why identify politics was promoted to distract and divide the masses. The extremely wealthy know they’re safe if they undermine the possibility of a true class war with the confected racial / gender / sexual orientation “crisis”.
Bang on Gary. Just saw a dilapidated shack in Dodges Ferry sell for just short of a million to a North Shore woman who explicitly said “so my kids can come use it in summer”, neck deep in the worst housing crisis in the islands memory. Dodges for decades had been a place you could imagine a future. It’s poor governance to allow houses to be used like this, as play things for the rich. Private property is already heavily regulated and regulating short stay accommodation shouldn’t be that difficult.
And I agree Blowin. Australian politicians seem desperate to erase any sense of class consciousness or solidarity.
My guess, and this probably isn't a new thought but I haven't read back through all comments, is that any drop or crash in house prices won't be due to anything our government does or doesn't do, it'll be a much larger macro event impacting not just Australia but the world, such as sustained rising inflation impacting interest rates and prices in general. Every major country has seen prices go crazy for houses, we are not isolated by any stretch as everyone knows.
And that means in my view is that if the crash does happen, it's not going to all of a sudden easier to get into the market and buy. It could be higher interest rates, which will cancel out the benefit to a buyer of any price drop. Sure, price might be lower to buy, but cost to service the loan is the same. A price crash will mean those with money, lots of it, can buy up whilst those without can't, so again the rich win. They always will.
Just had a couple from Dodges Ferry stay next door. When I asked where it was and what it was like, the bloke said, " like here, but more upmarket". Big call when house across the street just sold for 2.3 million and suburb now has median house price above 1 million. And yes, the house remains empty.
Dx3 wrote:My guess, and this probably isn't a new thought but I haven't read back through all comments, is that any drop or crash in house prices won't be due to anything our government does or doesn't do, it'll be a much larger macro event impacting not just Australia but the world, such as sustained rising inflation impacting interest rates and prices in general. Every major country has seen prices go crazy for houses, we are not isolated by any stretch as everyone knows.
And that means in my view is that if the crash does happen, it's not going to all of a sudden easier to get into the market and buy. It could be higher interest rates, which will cancel out the benefit to a buyer of any price drop. Sure, price might be lower to buy, but cost to service the loan is the same. A price crash will mean those with money, lots of it, can buy up whilst those without can't, so again the rich win. They always will.
100% spot on.
Important points.
-Situation not at all unique to Australia, it's a global issue.
-A crash doesn't equal affordability, average buyer pays what banks allow them to borrow.
-A crash actually benefits those at the top who will buy up as often dont even need to borrow or have more ability to borrow more.
What is novel about our situation at the moment and how it relates to a crash is that the government has captured a pool of capital that would otherwise be directed out of Australia as people relocate or travel overseas. It’s no coincidence that there’s been a huge boom in relocating to or the hoarding coastal homes while people aren’t able to spend $20-80k on their regular overseas trips. What happens when all of a sudden borders reopen and capital is able to flow out? It’s easy to imagine a scenario where demand drops out. Imagine too, if that coincides with the general economic decline that people are predicting when we’re able to leave the country. And if by sheer magic there’s a well organised campaign from civil society, there’s the potential for a crash of sorts rather than a slump. It’s much easier to imagine the government controlling borders to boost the profits in the housing market than it is to imagine them using policy for the common good, but it’s something I’ve been thinking about anyway.
Government will reinfect hundreds of thousands of immigrants so the house hoarders will have someone to pay the rents and thus their mortgages.
Worst thing is the hue and cry by the Fake Left demanding that the immigration Ponzi, which underpins the oppression of Australians as we have discussed , must continue unabated because to do otherwise is in humane.
Fake left demands wage slaves and grist for the Ponzi economy because seeking to prioritise the welfare of existing Australians is racist!
FFS blowin, 5 fucking years you've been banging on about immigrants forcing up housing prices. What a fucking joke. Have you noticed that right when the housing prices have been going through the roof, there's been net migration out of the county?
Clearly immigration plays a much smaller part in price rises than you think.
Last year you were saying housing prices where going to collapse by 30-50% because the immigrants weren't coming due to covid, and now you're saying the "fake left" are demanding immigrants to keep housing prices up. You're seriously confused.
Being a racist idiot must be getting tiring blowin, you need to get a new hobby.
.
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Blowin wrote:Fake left demands wage slaves and grist for the Ponzi economy because seeking to prioritise the welfare of existing Australi!a blah blah blah more bull …
It’s not the fake left that has been ramping up immigration, Blowin, it has been the actual right, the LNP. This started with Howard and has been carried through by the LNP. While demonising migrants they have been bringing them in by shiploads and planes full. You seriously have no idea, or your just here as an outrage merchant. I know which one I’m picking, but I suspect I give you far too much credit.
I’ve recently thought back to Gra Murdoch’s series, and realised that you are Baz Cornell. I have always wondered about people who are outrage merchants, always wondered at what drives them. Still no closer to answering that question, but they still abound. I just can’t work out what you get from it. Like a clock that has stopped, you are right twice a day, but wrong for the other 23 hours 58 minutes.
This is just another outrage comment. I don’t understand what you think you achieve by this re-writing of history.
Wow, this edit button really doesn’t work!
the lnp is the ream, the fake left is the lube... inadvertantly or not...
and the alp has enjoyed the 'spoils' whilst they have been in power (a little too much...)
there's no rewriting of history, it's just how shit developed
Batfink- You are correct about my outrage, though you’re wrong to think that I express it here to stir controversy. My outrage is genuine. The immigration Ponzi perpetuated by both the ALP and the LNP has has a more profoundly destructive impact on modern Australian than any other political action bar none.
The conscious political decision to import as many humans as possible- 5 million in 15 years- has wrought untold damage to virtually all facets of Australia from the environment to wages and standards of living, to accessibility to infrastructure, health and welfare, to destroyed amenity and liveability.
If you’d read my post properly, you’d noted that i said the government intends to continue inflicting the damaging mass immigration scheme in the very first paragraph. The LNP has it in their DNA to subjugate everything to the profit margin. It is the ALP and Greens, AKA the Fake Left, who are the true traitors to Australians.
I’m afraid the “lack of idea” is all yours, Batfink. Here’s a graph displaying the rates of immigration. Note that the largest importation rate of all was during the ALP Gillard tenure of 2007-2010. And again in 2013.
However, there is no need to rest on historical outcomes to determine the duplicitous nature of the ALP. A quick perusal of their policies shows that they are as determined as ever to support the neoliberal drive to impose mass immigration. Same with the Greens.
OK. You’ve just been shown how wrong you were, let’s address the unprovoked personal attacks- which I’m fine with BTW. As long as you’re willing to be on the receiving end yourself.
You see, Batfink, you’re a perfect example of the soon-to-be revealed part time inhabitant of the Toonalook universe. You are none other than Dominic “ Dom” Walker. Dom is the classic metrosexual. One of the leaky tubs riding the tide which floats all boats of Sydney house price increases. Dom also owns a holiday house in Toonalook. Dom can’t spend enough time telling anyone about his indecision to move to his weekender permanently. Dom has no sense, or care , of his personal contribution towards disenfranchising the Toona locals who can’t afford to buy a house in their own town. Nor does Dom care that his dual housing footprint is the perfect example of the insidiously selfish consumer mindset which is destroying the Earth. Dom has his holiday house and the Toona locals and the planet can get fcked. Well, Dom would never say this out loud. Instead he allays his repressed shame by being overtly vocal about the rights of “minorities” and any environmental activism which doesn’t relate to his excessive footprint on the planet.
Dom ( Batfink) will debate till the cows come home about brumbies in the Snowys, whilst avoiding the subject of homelessness in regional towns due to city slickers buying all the housing stock for their weekender indulgence.
Dom ( Batfink) is a seriously deluded cnt who swans about in a Land Rover Discovery on his weekend trysts to his weekender and who, despite his desperate claims to be a surfer, has developed no real insight into the ocean because he’s spent his life in some paper shuffling, desk jockey occupation and sold his existence in pursuit of numbers on his balance sheet. Dom will never realise that his continuous reference to his houses proximity to the ocean only exacerbates the confusion amongst people when they consider how unfamiliar he actually is with said ocean. That is until they remember that Dom spends far more time piloting a desk than he ever will immersing himself in the brine.
Dom is the gentrifier. He’s the Grim Reaper in a puffy jacket who’s come to kill the soul of your small town. Dom is the army of passive aggressive undead come to zombify the regions, with the leverage of equity in his city home his weapon of mass blandification. Dom is the great milquetoast cultural leveller who wants the real estate below Toonalook, without having to acknowledge the offensively idiosyncratic locals who form the current community. Dom knows that Toonalook has loads of potential which is inaccessible due to the pesky Toona locals. Dom is a neo colonialist who resents the fact that the Toona local who snakes him for every set wave can also charge him $100 to hang a picture due to Dom’s non existent skill set.
So Batfink, you Eastern suburbs agent of societal ruination, why don’t you just stick to your knitting which is urban coffee shop gatherings surrounded by MAMILs and flopping about Bronte close outs amongst all the other floundering Doms, and leave the thinking to those who’ve got a broader scope of thought than which private school would allow their offspring the best networking opportunity.
Sound fair?
Edit: Posted before i saw Blowins post
Just for interest here is the real graph on immigration.
75-83=Liberal
83-early 96= Labor
96-2007=Liberal
2008-2013 Labor
2013- 2021 Liberal
The only real clear pattern is during Howard years it was all up then, but personally not complaining we just went through a recession and was an important strategy for success especially when you taken in other factors.
Missing a few recent years but surprisingly seems like a decline since 2013?
Personally i have very mixed feelings about immigration rates.
Head says: important for economy and growth for such a small pop country and i have benefited from it in may ways.
Heart says: Id much rather it as low as possible because i love the Australia i knew in the 80s and see many negatives to quality of life from pop increases.
Vic Local, between March 2020 and March 2021, some 446,000 expats came back to Oz.
https://www.westpac.com.au/news/making-news/2021/04/very-appealing-expat...
It goes without saying that real estate has gone through the roof.
Seems pretty clear that whether it's "immigrants" or expats, high levels of population growth affects real estate prices.
Pull the race card all you want but it seems like there's a clear correlation.
Of course there are quite a few other factors but population growth is one of them.
It seems that the big handfuls of kindling, which is the Covid stimulus, can only provide a flashy show of flames for so long and that the big logs of the mass immigration Ponzi are needed ASAP, lest the Great Housing Ponzi Fire begin to lose its heat and is reduced to ash. FOMO is the residual heat and coals built up over the past decade and a half of the mass immigration fuel loading. Without more imported human fuel the fire will lose its sustained heat and the FOMO will exit the market.
No need to guess, take it from the experts-
Here’s the CEO of the Property Council of Australia, who gets paid A LOT to know more about this stuff than some bewildered muppet from Victoria:
Property Council of Australia CEO Ken Morrison says population growth through immigration needs to be restarted as soon as possible since the success of the HomeBuilder scheme won’t last forever…
“It’s keeping the economy going and keeping construction workers in jobs…
Mr Morrison said the “big engine of the economy” which is immigration needs to be restarted earlier than what the budget has proposed.
“If we don’t get population growth restarted, it can only go so far”.
"...The conscious political decision to import as many humans as possible- 5 million in 15 years- has wrought untold damage to virtually all facets of Australia from the environment to wages and standards of living, to accessibility to infrastructure, health and welfare, to destroyed amenity and liveability."
that's some alarming numbers... 5 million in 15 years
way too much! ...no matter how you look at it...
"...Here’s the CEO of the Property Council of Australia, who gets paid A LOT to know more about this stuff than some bewildered muppet from Victoria:
Property Council of Australia CEO Ken Morrison says population growth through immigration needs to be restarted as soon as possible since the success of the HomeBuilder scheme won’t last forever…
“It’s keeping the economy going and keeping construction workers in jobs…
Mr Morrison said the “big engine of the economy” which is immigration needs to be restarted earlier than what the budget has proposed.
“If we don’t get population growth restarted, it can only go so far”."
pretty sad and depressing that they are so open and unusually frank about it all ...once upon a time they used to at least try a little to disguise and hide their lack of any reasonable plan for australia's future...
it's like t he are terribly b grade leaders at best, and have absolutely no idea or initiative whatsoever...
just depressing really, that that is all they have got
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers