House prices

gsco wrote:

nothing to worry about in Australia - we're only 15th on the country list of the world's greatest housing bubble of all time...: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-bubble-gfc-015923191.html

Wow i though we would have been higher than that, crazy that its pretty much a world wide thing.

From article

Not surprised to see Norway so high. Been living in Oslo for a while and the market has gone nuts over COVID.
Most people still have secure jobs but no where to spend their money. Plus with so many people working from home (my girlfriend and i since March 2020) loads are looking to upsize. It was expensive already but now its more competitive than ever.

Its in Norwegian Kr but a place yesterday i was following was advertised for 10,5 Mill, and went for 12.9. This is standard now, and, considering it was already pretty expensive then somethings gotta give.

Lots of Norwegians seem to think things are always gonna be good with ultra low interest rates so if they rise there are a lot of people who are gonna be in some trouble.

It might be worth noting that that graph represents bubble prices. It is not a study of affordability.

But... still... 134% price to income ratio on an already stuffed ratio is not something to be proud of... unless you've got a couple of investment properties.

Anyone here brave enough to predict a crash, or even a modest correction?

Predicting is difficult, especially about the future, but it will be interesting to see what happens when interest rates rise (which seems like it may happen sooner than expected, given the lower than expected unemployment figures?)

We'll see if the tightening of the labour market starts to put upwards pressure on wages.

Until then, I'd bet big money on the Reserve Bank honouring their stated committed to keep rates low until 2024 at least.

Not going to happen - a crash that is. nor any substantial interest rate increase. (hopefully) probably see some measures to slow the rate of price explosion that wont involve interest rates.
that's my prediction - based on nothing but a feels which is exactly how the suits who get paid the big bucks operate.

Yeah, I will FR. Based on zero economics training of course.

First up, one thing that stuck out for me was a recent article that highlighted the largest single quarter growth in a market (Sydney?) since 1988. That was right before the 1989/1990 recession which was real for me as my old man lost his job, interest rates went through the roof etc etc.

Secondly, There’s a lot of fragility in a geo-strategic sense atm. Convergence of a lot of new and relatively untested concepts and technology (MMT, crypto) and a decreased degree of trust in globalisation, distributed supply chains etc. market diversification is going both ways.

All of this is against a backdrop of heightened strategic tension, focused on the indo-pacific but in reality a global wrestle.

Reckon we’re in for a shock within 24 months.

BTW, did you get that carton off Blowin?

we just had a shock: a global pandemic and prices have soared.

Is there a decreased degree of Trust in globalisation?
From whom and what does that matter?

I bet Alex Jones and every other anti-globalist is still buying electronics and cheap consumer goods made in China.

Show me how or where this lack of trust makes a material difference?

low unemployment is easily fixed by reopening the immigration floodgates which is exactly where will be post election. wash rinse repeat.

I would've bet the house - if I then had one - that there'd be a crash after the Sydney Olympics.

Still waiting.

I agree Bonza.

business groups are already screaming bloody blue murder to increase immigration to fix so-called labour shortages.
My bet is they will get their way before any upwards pressure on wages actually manifests in capital paying more of share to labour.

The pandemic has made for a golden period in youth employment.
My daughter and all her friends can get jobs incredibly easily due to the lack of cheap backpacker labour available to the hospitality and service sectors.

One example that might play out for Australia - commodities.
Chinese investment in wholly or partially owned mines in West Africa will reduce their dependency on the global market (esp Australia). Iron ore prices have kept the economy afloat prior to and during the pandemic. Remove that income and there’s a loss of confidence. Like I said, I’m not an economist but I understand that much speculation is driven by confidence.

Yep that's a fair observation freeride regarding employment for the young now. With the removal of jobkeeper/seeker, those that declined to get out there and work the last 12 months as they were getting paid just fine sitting at home (generalisation but true in many areas) now have to actually go out and earn their crust by working. So that removal of support has pushed the unemployment rate down far more and far quicker than was expected.

As for house prices, the longer Aussies can't go anywhere in the world, the longer prices will continue to rise as people use their banked up savings to improve where and what type of property they live in. If you're buying in a desirable area, hard to see much price decline happening. If you've bought a Melb CBD apartment though, different story altogether. Then if covid ever dies down and migration and global movement comes back to what it was, again those desirable areas will keep ticking along with higher prices, might just slow down a bit with some interest rate rises. Buy with a 10 year+ outlook and ride out the bumps.

But regarding covid dying down, unless Australia realises covid will move to being endemic and be with us for many many years, hard to see what our fucking end game is. How long can we go on as a hermit nation? A seasonal covid jab every year like the flu perhaps?

Dx3 - reckon it has a lot more to do with jobs paying less than min wage and actively seeking to not employ australians.
if you cant get workers you're not paying enough. if they are unskilled. train them.

FR, yeah wouldn't be surprised if the reserve bank does keep to it's promise, but off the top of my head they did caveat that promise with a target for unemployment (somewhere around the 4-5% mark?)
And the consumer banks aren't necessarily bound to follow the reserve bank... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-21/analysis-verrender-why-you-should... (see subsection "Why central banks no longer call the shots")

But again, prediction's a mug's game.

freeride76 wrote:

Anyone here brave enough to predict a crash, or even a modest correction?

Like Stu, I’ve been predicting one forever, although not as far back as the Sydney Olympics.

I’ve thought a stock market crash is beckoning for about two years now. It keeps going up, except for that correction the other day in the US, which reverted next day. That, it is speculated, was because the investment class were spooked that the US Fed suggested that interest rates might go up in 2023 instead of 2024.

Also, a hint of a suggestion that the US Fed might think about reducing its quantitative easing (which is something stupendous like $160B a month. I don’t know some mind boggling figure.)

So the authorities are between a rock and a hard place. If they stop blowing up the bubble even slightly it causes a panic, but they can’t keep blowing it up forever. This is the very definition of all the fears about MMT, money being created for no real purpose, not building anything, just giving it to banks at low interest rates and it’s all going into the stock market first, and bidding up house prices second.

Locally, my wife and I went for a walk this arvo, covered a few areas we haven’t been for a year or so, and the number of places that have sold recently is off the charts, plus houses that have been demolished and in states of rebuild. Half the houses we looked at will be holes in the ground in the next few months. It’s mind blowing.

I don’t know what will set it off but if it all blows up then this will be a doozy. I don’t know how the authorities get out of this one. You think it’s all gonna blow, and then it notches up another 15% in 6 months.

It’s batfink crazy. Nothing makes sense any more.

Good to hear your kids are getting jobs easily Freeride. Allowing migration to cover low skilled employment means our kids suffer the consequences, and when businesses have to rely on paying below award wages then that feeds into a terrible competition, again squeezing the young out.

The bleating from business groups about skill shortages is shrill. A recent article referenced how they couldn’t fill their jobs for Australian tax specialists! WTF!

Train up people who are here first.

Im so lucky me and my partner were able to buy a property way under market value in the area we live (Southern Morn Pen)

I don't know what word to use - unrealistic, unreasonable, unfair etc but if your from round here and not in now first home wise, your highly, highly unlikely that you'll be able to get in. Gentrification, with Covid nailing that door shut. Then battern screwing it. Then welding a metal grate over just to make sure..

FUCKING SUCKS!!

Don't buy at the top..

Seems like there's no end to the top but with that rational, investing in a property right now even at way beyond my means can only lead to one thing... It exploding and crashing down. As I've posted here before (if I remember correctly), I can't see myself ever owning a property near the coast (even inland), less out somewhere far west, and now seeing all those quiet zones go off, there's no chance.

It kinda bothers me but on the other hand it's good not having a huge mortgage hanging over me. Renting does get a little tiresome though. There's no real answer.. It's a complete over-inflated heap of crap.

@craig , you could buy a yacht and just sail of into the sunset

House prices in Aus effectively won't go down. There's simply not enough 'Desirable' or 'A-Grade' properties out there, and demand is growing faster than supply. Rich people have rich kids, and they all want these properties (plus holiday houses, or investment properties), and are backed up by inheritances which will make your eyes water. Some are home grown kids, some are immigrants.

Sure we may see some easing in the less desirable, development areas, but no where near enough to even blink an eye at.

For house prices to go down, there'll need to be a pretty much apocalyptic exodus from Australia.

freeride76 wrote:

Anyone here brave enough to predict a crash, or even a modest correction?

2022/2023 watch the world economies plummet including the housing market.

Stok wrote:

House prices in Aus effectively won't go down. There's simply not enough 'Desirable' or 'A-Grade' properties out there, and demand is growing faster than supply. Rich people have rich kids, and they all want these properties (plus holiday houses, or investment properties), and are backed up by inheritances which will make your eyes water. Some are home grown kids, some are immigrants.

Sure we may see some easing in the less desirable, development areas, but no where near enough to even blink an eye at.

For house prices to go down, there'll need to be a pretty much apocalyptic exodus from Australia.

I’m certainly one of the very lucky ones
in that I own a family home in Sydney and the value of the home would put me in the rich bracket from an outsiders perspective. But if you looked at it from cash flow it’s not the case, I have 3 kids, childcare is crazy in Sydney and mortgage is high as is cost of living. If I sold up and moved to the country sure I would be sweet but this is where my family (extended) and my job is so this is where I want to be. So I guess my point is when you look from the outside in and see million dollar homes, sure they are asset rich but if you never cash in the asset it kind of means nothing.

it does mean something

it means equity and banks will lend bottomless money on property equity.

which means in this ultra-low interest environment you could (and people are) enrich yourself massively.

Next level madness

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/beach-house-smashes-qld-record-sellin...

freeride76 wrote:

Anyone here brave enough to predict a crash, or even a modest correction?

Cant see it happening, can only see stagnation and very modest corrections in next few years and then in time more rises, im predicting just more of what we have seen for the last 20 years.

Off course i have zero expertise in this area, just my 2 cents worth.

Craig wrote:

Don't buy at the top..

Seems like there's no end to the top but with that rational, investing in a property right now even at way beyond my means can only lead to one thing... It exploding and crashing down. As I've posted here before (if I remember correctly), I can't see myself ever owning a property near the coast (even inland), less out somewhere far west, and now seeing all those quiet zones go off, there's no chance.

It kinda bothers me but on the other hand it's good not having a huge mortgage hanging over me. Renting does get a little tiresome though. There's no real answer.. It's a complete over-inflated heap of crap.

There absolutely is an answer. It involves macroprudential tools that targets investors and eliminates the false economy incentives that does nothing for home affordability and everything for the real estate industry, speculators and all the hangers on.

That's the tragedy.

If you think renting is tired now wait until you have a family

joesydney wrote:

I’m certainly one of the very lucky ones
in that I own a family home in Sydney and the value of the home would put me in the rich bracket from an outsiders perspective. But if you looked at it from cash flow it’s not the case, I have 3 kids, childcare is crazy in Sydney and mortgage is high as is cost of living. If I sold up and moved to the country sure I would be sweet but this is where my family (extended) and my job is so this is where I want to be. So I guess my point is when you look from the outside in and see million dollar homes, sure they are asset rich but if you never cash in the asset it kind of means nothing.

As it always goes.....no one thinks they're rich, they're always looking at the bracket of richer people above them and are blind to the people below them on the ladder.

Sounds like you have a few million dollars worth of property equity but you disposable income is low - maybe you have $5000 per month to spend on luxuries, maybe it's $500.

Point is there'll be plenty of people with that disposable income only, just without equity...growing nicely.

As Freeride said, you're on the ladder, sitting quite nicely.

The correction will happen in the development areas. This will link to population reduction and will be a stagnation to a slow decline more than a crash. It may speed up in some areas due to local industries/economies dying out.

People who bought a house and land package, with limited access to amenity, to beaches, to public transport etc......these are the worrying ones.

The shit thing is, if you're not already in the market, or able to put $5K/month towards a mortgage, these are the only places you'll be able to remotely afford (if you want land).

indo-dreaming wrote:

freeride76 wrote:

Anyone here brave enough to predict a crash, or even a modest correction?

Cant see it happening, can only see stagnation and very modest corrections in next few years and then in time more rises, im predicting just more of what we have seen for the last 20 years.

Off course i have zero expertise in this area, just my 2 cents worth.

there has to be a correction as we are now in new economic territory....real estate prices booming , art sales booming , even surfboard/surfwear sales booming ...but wages are stagnant ! of

the low interest rates are part of the problem as money is so cheap there is not much interest to pay back and with negative gearing it's a boom period for those with cash and or great credit lines......feels like there are a lot of rich people who have got a lot richer and they are out there spending outrageous sums of money like retail therapy....and comfort shopping all rolled into one.....but we are now facing an unprecedented conditions in the Global economy....inflation is now ramping up at levels never seen before. Jerome Powell chairman of the USA fed , recently said the inflation is just short term...he changed his mind last week as the core inflation in the USA just hit 4.3% , fastest growth in 30 years and reports are it's going to double in the next 12 mths..........
The only remedy for slowing inflation is increasing interest rates.....so the question is what's driving inflation so hard......or why are the cost of goods going thru the roof ......so the correction is coming , but no-one knows how bad.......

Stepping outside economic cycles and looking at Biogeography geo-political factors I think we are seeing a structural change in Aus.

Human population increasing by 80 million a year, Asia is chokkas.

Australia is an incredibly rich, stable democracy located on the edge of Asia but with only a thin strip of habitable land on the eastern fringes and SW corner. Geography is destiny and our destiny is now being realised.
That scarcity is now being fully realised due to the pandemic and we are seeing land banking where people with equity are buying up anything habitable/desirable they can.
It would take both a major increase in interest rates and a major recession which destroyed employment and thus peoples ability to service mortgages to slow that structural change down.

I predict the boom to go even harder once immigration rules are relaxed and the rest of the world clamours to try and live in Australia.

From what I'm seeing and hearing on the sunny coast - a lot of people are just throwing cash around, they aren't even relying on borrowing money. Friend of a friends sister just sold out of Sydney and have moved back to the coast after 20 years away - they sold in Sydney for over $8mil so $1mil on a knockdown and $500k for a house doesn't even put a dent in their cash.

A local builder doing knockdowns is making $300k+ per house and is buying the next property for cash.

It's insane but I just can't see it stopping - between the land scarcity and how well we have gotten through covid we are a tempting destination for everyone from expats through to people with enough money to migrate here.

"I predict the boom to go even harder once immigration rules are relaxed and the rest of the world clamours to try and live in Australia."

100%

and if it all goes belly up - which it wont - it will be the most vulnerable who lose everything. the first home buyers crazy with FOMO who have been dragged to the bank alter by our politicians, against every instinct and school yard lesson to not spend beyond their means. faced with a <1% or there about rental availability and rental prices costing more than a mortgage repayment.

...and it will be the same politicians, media and the privileged who frenzied the young and vulnerable on to the ponzi - the same ponzi they sit on and depend on.. shaking their fingers saying - its your own fault - you should have been responsible"

makes me sick

so true.

Plenty of affordable housing away from the ocean and plenty of sob stories who could comfortably buy there.

with jobs, infrastructure, family support?

doubt it

you have to go a fair way now Sprout.
even three hrs inland on the range is fucking expensive.

You have to basically be on a floodplain here to get anything affordable.
which means you won't able to insure against flooding.

but yeah, Cunnamulla and Broken Hill and plenty of butt-fuck one pub towns in the outback with no mining are cheap.

Maclean etc unaffordable too by now?

I was having a chat along those same lines Blowin with a mate and we came to the conclusion that we'll sooner see a revolution of sorts than prices go backwards. Too much of the economy relies on the financialization of housing, from mortgages through the huge financial services sector that is wrapped around it. No government will bring in policies that actively encourage a move away from that. Scott Ludlum talks about the Australian political system being a "captured state" that essentially exists to serve the desires of the resources sector, and I think it's true (to a lesser extent) for the financialization of housing sector too. Hell, you can't even get anyone in government to admit that what needs to happen is for houses to be worth less. They will talk about "affordability", but what really matters is house prices, and they need to fall. What political figure is ever going to say to the public that their homes and their investment properties needs to worth less in the future than they are now?

Where does that leave us? We're going to get to a point where a critical mass of people simply have no way to survive. Many already can't pay rent, can't find work, can't keep up with the cost of living. The stories of struggle are heartbreaking and they stretch from the poorest right through to the lower middle class. It sounds ridiculous, but once enough people hit a breaking point, and once there is a leader of sorts people can get behind, some kind of revolution is entirely possible. Australia has been around for 200 years, so it's not like we have some kind of tried and tested formula to avoid such things happening. If the rich keep getting richer and life for enough people keeps getting harder, and governments remain unwilling to address any of it, it seems bound to happen, it's just a matter of what will be the catalyst and when it will happen.

If you're a politician, you look at the percentages of homeownership as to whether you're actually going to do anything, and right now a greater percentage of the Aussie voting population have bought a house than not, whether that's just the place they live in, or that plus investment properties. So from a voting population perspective, the majority sit in the home owner cohort. Doing something to reduce the wealth of your majority wouldn't end too well for a government.

Now that percentage of homeowners is gradually decreasing as younger folk get priced out, and that will continue to decrease the more prices rise, but it's a slow-ish burn as inheritance keeps many able to purchase a place. So in terms of any revolution or any action a government will take, until the majority are priced out and unable to buy, the government won't do a whole lot.

And my point here doesn't take into account just how much personal benefit current politicians get from rising home prices, our current crop is loaded with investment properties, there is no greater rorter in this country than a politician, they look after themselves first, then scraps to the rest.

I'm breaking my vow of silence to say, give it a rest blowin with your Ponzi scheme BULL SHIT.
You spent so much time telling everyone housing prices were sky high due to immigrants. Australia has had a population decrease during covid and have property prices gone down? Fuck no, it's just more immigrant bashing from a bloke who wouldn't let facts get in the way of his racism.
This is the sort of argument that red-headed village idiot Hanson uses all the time. Your hero Hanson, who got her own birthday wrong in parliament the other day, and then blamed everyone else for the confusion. What a fucking moron.
Housing prices are sky high because of investor friendly tax concessions, first home owner grants, land banking, massive house sizes, labour and material shortages, and an economy awash with Keynsian cash. And that's just a partial list.
The fact you are still blaming immigrants for high prices even during a time of falling population in Australia, just proves you are a massive racist fraud blowin.

Just ask yourself this. Global debt is at all time high and yet interest rates are at all time lows. Gov are throwing money at us and in their eyes we’re still not spending it fast enough to grow the economy as fast as they would like. Wait til the arse falls out of the stock market. People with supposed big $ will be left high and dry and have nowhere to go but to sell their multiple investment properties. This combined with significant inflation will cause a recession which will cause global economic demise. Gov debt will be the only thing they can do to recover. All the time the arse end will fall out of the housing market. It’s a very full glass at present and it won’t take many more drops before the glass overflows. Just take a look at how nervous the stock market is when it farts a little drop. Imagine the trillions that’s will be wiped when this happens.

Don’t get me wrong. I think the grass is about to get greener in the short term. World believes vaccinated world can revert to normal so money will be thrown around big time in the second half of this year and possibly even early 2022. 2022/23 will be a very different story.