House prices
Sypkin wrote: "Bowen has just committed to Underwrite EVERY Renewable Project for the next 7-8 years."
or to rewrite:
"Bowen has committed the Australian taxpayer to carry all the unknown risks of loss (high) and risk of plundering by unscrupulous project proponents (also high) of EVERY Renewable Project for the next 7-8 years." It will all be hidden under "commercial in confidence" clauses in contracts and the Albo "I haven't read it, why would I?" principle will probably be in play.
Meanwhile, getting new mining projects up and running for the vast increases in battery metals needed to support renewables generation and transmission approved and financed and then developed is extremely difficult and slow - 5 to 10 + years slow.
For example, Australia has only a handful of copper mines in operation and most prospective new copper mines and discoveries do not have the scale or ore grades to be viable (or often to attract risk capital) at current copper prices.
A couple of highly profitable large mining companies with iron ore as their cash cow seem to paint a picture of big profits in mining. Step away from them and it gets thin very fast in both profits and the ability to bring new projects online. New mines on finite deposits are running out of ore from the moment they start to dig. More and more are needed forever.
Labour: Wind farms from horizon to horizon (on paper) is good but new mines to get the raw materials are a case of NIMBY
... it all makes sense.
What will be the "solution"? - eventually (years away after the pretending meets reality), very very high prices for commodities to make it viable to fund smaller and lower grade ore bodies and take on the risk of highly volatile commodity prices. Which means very high cost energy and materials costs and therefore lots more inflation feeding into everything including building costs. House construction may continue to lag and be high cost despite the need.
frog
What really irks me , is that Australia has incredible Natural Gas reserves , nearly everywhere ( land and sea ) .
It took Foreign money to take on the risk of building Gladstone !
The Project took years to approve , fund and build .
As Natural Gas is the least worst ( from my reading ) hydrocarbon , most agree that this project should continue to produce ( as funded by o/s it goes o/s , as it should ) .
We could have had a Gladstone type project , in nearly every state , producing .
We still can , and should imho .
ps
IF Woodside takeover Santos , it may just happen a bit earlier than I expected .
As U said , Australia should be a World Leading supplier of Copper ( price is low , like lithium etc ) .
At least we can buy copper easily on world markets .
Not Nat Gas !
but but this is what 32.6% of Australians voted for......
ok, thats mean. Sorry.
MB
Gladstone was being discovered in the early 2000's , was funded and building began just after the GFC from memory .
Japanese Utility Money ( Planning for the future ) was mainly responsible .
Lot's of people were freaking out , as it is a "Fracking(good:)" story .
Maybe its just a Green thing ?
Interesting if it is .
Gladstone is now producing and most are Glad .
The freaking out about Underground aquifer's was proven to be unnecessary .
We are having to extend Coal Electricity lifetime , as renewables have , perhaps , underperformed .
And now we are complaining about high gas prices .
Its a funny world !
I actually really like the GFC @Pop,
https://www.gfccafe.com.au/
some towns I visit semi-regularly, it is the only comfort junk food, at their servo.
I start hankering for it while in the surf, usually go for the boneless pieces w chips..
(least messy option, while driving ; )
Pop Down wrote:MB
Gladstone was being discovered in the early 2000's , was funded and building began just after the GFC from memory .
Japanese Utility Money ( Planning for the future ) was mainly responsible .
Lot's of people were freaking out , as it is a "Fracking(good:)" story .
Maybe its just a Green thing ?
Interesting if it is .
Gladstone is now producing and most are Glad .
The freaking out about Underground aquifer's was proven to be unnecessary .
We are having to extend Coal Electricity lifetime , as renewables have , perhaps , underperformed .
And now we are complaining about high gas prices .
Its a funny world !
Yes - Japan being one of our largest, if not largest Gas customer. Hence getting rather annoyed when the current government was discking around with pricing and supply.
Kohler identified that housing affordability started deteriorating post 2000. Incidentally, this is also when Australian net immigration started marching permanently above 100k/yr. Yep, it needs to get back below 100k/yr, as bonza said above.
The monthly proxy for Australia's net immigration rose a bit more in October. pic.twitter.com/35WY315tgQ
— Justin Fabo (@justinfabo) December 12, 2023
What about the massive bull elephant in the room? That is, for Australia to transfer to renewables and reach its legislated emissions reductions targets 2030, the amount of infrastructure that needs to be built, the amount of raw materials that need to be mined/processed/manufactured (eg just copper alone is staggering), the amount of skilled labour (eg electricians) etc etc is staggering. The list is very long...... It's not only Australia but most of the other countries in world will be striving to achieve their targets at the same time by the same date. It's going to have a huge impact on inflation IMO. Don't see it on any Australian Government or RBA charts.
And on a side note, Australia has backed a pledge at Cop28 climate summit to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 so that's going to make it even worse.
Nuclear = insurance plan.
I am not for nor against nuclear but what I am against is it being removed entirley from the conversation.
The amount of natural bush that will need to be cleared for onshore solar and wind farms is.....well I'll let the audience think about it. Proof will be in the pudding with EPA assessments and approvals.
This should maybe be on a different thread but it feeds into house prices as well. There's no going back on that besides some minor corrections here or there, trend will always be upwards unless the shit hits the fan.
Yep
seaslug
I am really confident , as I have said , that a new energy source WILL show itself , as the Long Term solution .
Humans are smart .
20 years Max , imho
Totally agree everything should be ( always ) On the table , including nuclear .
Now , though , I think it Too Hard , and it will ONLY be a "Stop Gap Measure" (20 years ) .
Way too much time , political capital and especially MONEY ( that we need for housing ) will be needed to be devoted to this issue to make it work , long term imo .
It will be wasted money , I believe ( and worry about ) .
Much easier to go more Nat Gas , I think .
Australians have seen how Gladstone can work safely .
There are lots of KNOWN Gas deposits just sitting around , desperate to be tapped and used .
That idea would be easier to Sell to Australians , I think .
ps
By doing this , we will REDUCE our Electricity Bills by a LOT more than $250 a year , I think .
We will HAVE to pay for this NEW energy's Infrastructure as well , in the future .
We had better save some money for that , as money doesn't grow on trees , as we know .
bonza
Too much science atm for me to get my head around , perhaps .
Swing at the Easy Pitches ! esp if a Short ( 20 years ) term solution .
The numbers do work and many countries are adding small reactors .
I saw that even the Japanese are reevaluating previous decisions .
We have to try and give Politicians something they ( think ) can sell .
It needs the right optics .
Nuclear won't bring down really high prices for 5 years plus .
Pollies will not ( understand ) be able to sell the Science imo .
Greenies are against it and it is the only EXISTING option to replace Base Load CO2 producing PowerStation's .
The Wars around the world are a reminder how quickly things can change .
A reminder to me , that Australia should look after itself atm , and be very careful .
It is a divided world atm
pss I love We have gone Nuclear on Subs !!!
Not if they have been paying attention to energy prices. Nor if you believe in the science. Which I do. Policy not so much.
Given it would take say 12-15 years from now, not an option for meeting 43% by 2030 (or as Chris. Bowen said the other day we won't meet 43% but achieve 42% haha only a poly could make that shit up)
Anyway this should be on another thread like "Aussie - you're are standing in it" but it's busy with RK, GS and JF....
IMO I just don't see how Australia can avoid further inflationary pressures in order for us to meet 2030 targets (e.g. numbers like 10,000 km of transmission lines, 30,000 electricians required etc etc over the next 6/7 years) and its flow on effect onto housing prices.
Oh My Stars !!!
Seaslug , are U sure about 30000 Electricians ?
I am having trouble finding 1 .
Some numbers that I sort of remembered quoted quite some time back, maybe I'm incorrect but when you think of what actually has to be achieved ...... Very little conversation going on anywhere about this, make stage 3 tax cuts inflationary pressures look like chump change
Ssshhhh Don't mention the facts or the Everest that must be climbed..., Bowen (and Al Gore and Greta) might get upset:
Copper needs - just one of many minerals for the transition:
"Copper is another crucial resource for supporting the growth of the EV and renewable energy market but also maintaining demand for traditional uses like construction, transportation and telecommunications. From a demand perspective, a rather scary forecast has been formulated which predicts around 700 million tonnes will be required in the next 22 years alone, the same amount that humanity has consumed since 4000BC
To meet this colossal figure, it’s estimated around $100 billion will need to be invested ........ To put that into perspective, the largest copper mine in the world – Chile’s Escondida – produces 1.4 million tonnes annually, more than the world’s second and third largest copper mines combined. Meeting this demand means building just under two Escondida mines every month over the next 22 years."
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-many-new-mines-needed-resource-future...
Just totally impossible and impractical - finding one new Escondida scale mineral deposit is a once in a generation event. The next new "big" copper mine in Australia's (Winu) total deposit is currently around what Escondida produces each year and would supply only 0.2% of what is required in copper for world electrification in the next two decades.
All this assumes the poor in Africa and India etc. stay poor and burn firewood - no electricity or EV for them as it will add to CO2....
Positive thinking and signatures on a COP28 summit agreement can't even scratch the surface of that sort of roadblock.
Much more inflation is baked into the cake and eventually, as the end of the policy cul de sac approaches, what will happen when reality hits? Pivot to nuclear? Mind warping twists ahead for Greta and so many others as they grapple with the cognitive dissonance of accepting that option.
Frog, I would be sceptical about those figures. Extremely so, same for the figures from sea slug of 30,000 electricians required.
It’s not that they are complete bullshit, more that they are manufactured, usually produced by consulting companies that are calling the tune of the payer, who has an agenda.
Nuclear isn’t going to be ready in time for Australia. Just locating one anywhere will take 20 years. Nuclear is also a poor fit for working with intermittent energy sources of wind and solar, and finally the carbon emissions in the concrete required takes most of the life of the plant to pay back.
There are easier solutions. Basically anything is easier.
Cheers Frog, somebody's paying attention to reality :) Typically for all mined minerals, as near surface deposits decline, you have to go deeper for lower yield bearing ore, resulting in increased cost per tonne. You will have noticed an increase in deep sea nodule mining companies with it now becoming technically feasible. Out of mind and out of sight for seabed destruction and all marine creatures that inhabit the mined area. And then left field, just when Aussie land is due to reach the magical 42% not 43%, China's ambition on Taiwan isn't going anywhere and 2027 to 2030 seems about ripe, they are just not ready yet for an ambitious assault.
Dunno if this has been posted before.
?si=shDo1o7dhSFAstXB China invading Taiwan will created so many problems , especially for Australia .
If China go in , we will also have to go IN and help Taiwan .
How we will be able to tell the difference between them will be tough . ( Joke alert )
I hope their uniforms are different .
Seriously . China seems to be entering a period of long term Stagflation .
Their Property market Boom over 40 years , IS , starting to really hurt them , now imo .
They put ALL their Eggs into their Own Property .
Now , with a rapidly aging population , Chinese are starting to wonder WHO will buy their property .
I wouldn't .
Non woke joke, haha PD
Some people should move to Quilpie, council gives you $20k to buy land which basically means ‘free land’.
flollo
Sounds an idea that should be debated . I like it !
If someone BUYS a home they are making a major commitment to the whole community as well imo .
They are telling everyone " I want to live here and near U " .
They are not planning on moving .
All incentives to help potential home buyers , to buy in locations where Councils ( I assume the whole community ) want them , SHOULD be on the table .
If a good idea , government can help fund this eg dollar for dollar .
The Melbourne Council is NOT our Community , we out grew them decades ago .
ps
Some Councilors don't want anything to happen in THEIR town .
At drinks last night a developer friend shared his story about the Council that runs somewhere in SA near where the Murray flows out to the sea.
The area desperately needs some affordable housing ( around 50 ) for retirees there and that will move there ( his view !!! ) .
He is willing to risk only HIS money on his view .
He bought the land three years ago .
Nothing , due to the council , has happened .
Given the housing shortage is a worldwide problem perhaps one approach is to go and look at what was done after world war 2 to alleviate the same problem.
Canada: Victory Homes
UK: Prefabs (https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zsd68mn/revision/5)
Havent looked at rest of Europe but probably some good ideas there.
I bet a lot of these places are still standing.
Just a thought.
flollo wrote:Some people should move to Quilpie, council gives you $20k to buy land which basically means ‘free land’.
But it begs the obvious question.
Andy
BUT that is what is so GOOD about it .
People will think that obvious question and check out the place .
If only a few , like the place , they might really check it out and visit .
A few of those people will meet the locals and might really like them .
Perfect imho !
ps
Just did a quick check and it looks a lovely place but a bit far from the Ocean for us guys .
Not everyone surfs and this can be part of the Councils Advertising Budget .
"Advertising should be used where the purposes of the Council or the benefit of the community is advanced.
It should not be used to promote the particular achievements or plans of particular Councillors or groups of Councillors. In particular, advertising should not be used to influence the voters in an election . "
From the Councils site ,
Can you afford to build even after getting the land grant? Building costs are high probably higher out there. Will your property be worth what it cost in the end? What will you do for work? I’ve been there. On the eastern edge of the sand country. Stayed a night each time.
Might suit some but not many.
ps. Huge crumbed steak at ugly pub was great. Always on the menu out west. Beautiful character pub in town was for sale but not operating. This was all pre Covid.
"Sold Property Prices & Auction Results in Quilpie, QLD 4480 - realestate.com.au" https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/in-quilpie,+qld+4480/list-1
Yep exactly. You can’t build a house for that. I suppose planning scheme might allow for shed houses etc with owner builders. I’d prefer that to buying one of those shitters
People are dropping modular houses on these blocks. Also, councils are actively recruiting so there are some jobs to be had. I heard about al this as we’re doing some work in the area and people shared their experiences.
bonza wrote:Not if they have been paying attention to energy prices. Nor if you believe in the science. Which I do. Policy not so much.
I think a lot of people feel this way
the policy just seems not well thought out at all, ...purely an ideological trigger (largely finacially and big business friendly) to appease the masses... or more so, a lazy response of what they believe will appease the masses...
gonna be interesting when large swathes of bush get bulldozed, traditional 'allies' are gonna be spewing (and protesting) already seeing it with wind turbines...
all this without even considering the ridiculous financial decisions discussed above, ...all coming to fruition at the same time!
you think now is heated and divided...
then there's china and general security risks, are we gonna have quick charger military equipment?
fukn dreaming...
the gas decision is sooooo dumb and short sighted
pure ideological nuttery
idealistic idiotic ideological nuttery....
It's all the RBA's fault yeah nah
Stock market……..I’ve grabbed my popcorn and am watching this wild ride.
don
The FED changed Policy last night .
Announced they have achieved a Goldilocks outcome .
Growth is UP 1% and Inflation is down yoy .
They will CUT at least 3 times ( market wants 4 ) , 25 points each time , in 2024 , as they now expect inflation to be 2.4% next year ( Bon Chance imo ) .
Implications for Australia - rates MAY pop down NEXT year .
My forecast was wrong , again , probably .
RBA Governor made the Right call , last week !
US has not increased Min wages .
Paramedics are not getting ( well deserved ) 25% pay increases .
They don't have a major Home rental shortage .
Their Energy Prices are MUCH lower than ours and don't go UP as ours do ( self sufficiency is GOOD on Energy !!!) .
The US 10 and 30 year bond rates have dropped by 1% in TWO bloody weeks .
Holders of these Bonds have seen their Investment go up about 20% in two weeks !!!!!!!!
This is HUGE money ie Gazillions +
Truly , something this Pop , hasn't seen very often .
China , is another BIG story !!!
The Central Planning over 40 years has , stuffed Up .
Allowed a complete MISallocation of resources , and LET their People Go Property Crazy .
Property is best left alone imho .
Governments should Treat it like ANY asset class .
It is Not a Governments Job , to tell people what they should like imo .
Stagflation has been ignited there imho .
No doubt U would have enjoyed last night , Don ( I like pop corn to ) .
Lower interest rates...be careful what you wish for.
They never got high.
Fed rates are still 5 to 5.5% and QT continues. Win Win for the FED.
If oil/gasoline prices change direction (not saying they will 'cos the US is pumpimg like crazy at the moment, outdoing Saudi and Russia) then inflation will be higher. Services inflation is still going up.
Mortgage rates in the US are around 7% and the housing market is trash over there. Plenty of REITs on the brink.
Pop Down wrote:don
The FED changed Policy last night .
Announced they have achieved a Goldilocks outcome .
Growth is UP 1% and Inflation is down yoy .
They will CUT at least 3 times ( market wants 4 ) , 25 points each time , in 2024 , as they now expect inflation to be 2.4% next year ( Bon Chance imo ) .
Implications for Australia - rates MAY pop down NEXT year .
My forecast was wrong , again , probably .
RBA Governor made the Right call , last week !
US has not increased Min wages .
Paramedics are not getting ( well deserved ) 25% pay increases .
They don't have a major Home rental shortage .
Their Energy Prices are MUCH lower than ours and don't go UP as ours do ( self sufficiency is GOOD on Energy !!!) .
The US 10 and 30 year bond rates have dropped by 1% in TWO bloody weeks .
Holders of these Bonds have seen their Investment go up about 20% in two weeks !!!!!!!!
This is HUGE money ie Gazillions +
Truly , something this Pop , hasn't seen very often .
China , is another BIG story !!!
The Central Planning over 40 years has , stuffed Up .
Allowed a complete MISallocation of resources , and LET their People Go Property Crazy .
Property is best left alone imho .
Governments should Treat it like ANY asset class .
It is Not a Governments Job , to tell people what they should like imo .
Stagflation has been ignited there imho .
No doubt U would have enjoyed last night , Don ( I like pop corn to ) .
I understand why the market was all green last night. Look at the indicators like S&P, Dow etc. All rapidly approaching or exceeding ATHs. Breakouts coming for sure. Then watch everyone jump on the band wagon for the ride.
Just make sure you get off the wagon before the majority. S&P around 6000-6500 is where i'll be jumping off.
Don
The S&P 500 closed at 4707.9 last night .
6000 ?
Timing jumping off anything ( especially high things ) can be tricky and requires timing that is hard to time and I am an Old Timer .
Picking bottoms is also hard , and can be messy .
If U pick to many bottoms , yes , u can get dirty .
Often doing the opposite to others , can work .
We everyone is jumping off something , I wonder should I jump on .
Your Jump Spot is a bit too high ( maybe too far into the future ) for an old bloke like me , to worry about , too much .
Although , the way the World seems to be speeding up , shit , early next year ?? haha .
Lots of people Jumped On , last night .
With shares , a few , can jump off now , perhaps .
Unlike a house , others are buying your SAME shares and U can , sell a bedroom ( small percent ) anytime .
Money , in the bank , in a couple of days .
That is WHY , imho , buying a Home , HAS , been a wonderful Investment Strategy .
Time in the market stuff .
Jan looks IFY to me .
Have a look at the last two months rally and this is all based on the assumption the feds will cut. Wait til they actually do start cutting!!
Don ,
It's only , in last 2 WEEKS , since a Big change in data , that Bond Prices , have exploded .
This , as U know , is the BIGGEST predicter of ANYTHING .
Edit And the Most reliable .
Stock markets are the flee on this Big Dog !
guessing U are using Technical Analysis to gauge future market sentiment .
I do believe the Trend is your Friend ( until it isn't ) .
I find that a bit too technical ( old boke ) and are more a fundamental sort of bloke .
I like Weather maps !
Wet a finger , throw a coin , see which way the wind is blowing , non tech type stuff .
With markets , NFI really .
Let’s just see how how the S&P can go in the first 6 mths of 2024. This of course all assumes no major geopolitical storms.
The markets and the fed are like a junkie-pusher cheap money dependency.
"Freddy, Keynes. Hey listen, party at the Fed."
"Already?"
Michael West Media
Population Ponzi Scheme
Fair summary.
Ah yes was sent there and enjoyed the interesting name, stopped in for the lagoon, and then went to nearby beach. There's also a lagoon at Pearshape, and nearby saw a sand track to the beach with millions of footprints on it, none of them human.
I reckon Melbourne is the place to be. Plenty of cheap units around to get started in life.
Interesting time for Australian equity markets. Yet again we have found a Santa rally, and it looks like the funds and superannuation groups may be able to report positive returns for 2023 after being lacklustre at best, or down, for much of the year.
And looking at a number of factors it might be a good year to have some exposure to stocks for 2024. Interest rates have probably peaked so that drain on equity markets will be lessened, and there may be some cut in rates ahead, although I think they may not come in 2024. I hope they don’t because that will probably mean that our economy is going down the gurgler, and unemployment will be much higher.
On the other hand, I can’t help but feel that the Aussie equity markets are rigged by the big players, wittingly or not. By ‘big players’ I mean local, not international. The super funds own a very large portion of the stock market, and between them wanting to report positive returns in any year, and fund managers wanting the same as their bonuses are dependent on it, I can’t help but feel it is all very convenient that we get these Santa rallies, just as end of year reporting is being wound up.
That’s also true of markets elsewhere but our comparable size means it’s easier to rig the markets here.
Equity market investing used to be about fundamentals, mostly. Now it’s a world-wide crap shoot that resembles gambling, with much more money but much lower risk. That is, you’re not going to lose everything, but you may lose a sizeable chunk.
But perhaps 2024 has better risk factors given the interest rate movements.
Next CPI result in Australia will be lower again, and we’ll be down to a 4% something and maybe 3.% something by mid next year, which is not much above the RBA target.
But I don’t think the RBA or even the Treasury have sufficient skills or insight to call much of anything anymore. Their forecasting is terrible and has been for about 20 years, or more. These are the best we have and they don’t seem to be able to call it.
Corks on a Southern Ocean gale. Is that wave about to lift you up, or dump you?
With a generous allotment size starting from 140m2 ....
https://www.sunshinecoverealty.com/land/lancelin-stage-iii-now-released-...
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers