House prices
You are right Pop as we get older we learn the things we might have panic us financially as young adults are no biggie and the world keeps on going. I liked 5. the best as the comparison with the 1970s suggests strategies that worked during that time can work today: so I can show the kids things that happened in the 1970s and suggest to them that similar things may occur this decade: it was a great commodities decade complete with large swings in such and swings in all markets. The little pictures on the charts were fun I thought.
Edit: a truly amazing 1970s inflation & commodities read, it's the stuff of movies: HL Hunt's boys and the circle K cowboys and their riding shotgun in an airliner stuffed with silver:
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/money-then-and-now
Monkeyboy it seems only bond vigilantes can save the world from runaway government spending at present. "Help us Australian bond vigilantes, you are our only hope." lol - check out AGVT lately...
You have picked the right area to concentrate on imo .
History has a wonderful knack of repeating itself , vj , as U know probably , much better than me .
A wonderful thing to teach and to discuss .
The same forces and that Invisible Hand , that work now , also worked in the 70's, 80's .
The Universe runs in cycles imo !
Fn Sharks .
Wall St make Jaws look like a Goldfish .
It's a big list of predators behind them .
Like our White Pointers , they are a protect species .
Will piss off as I like checking tides at this time , every day haha . Bloody cycles . I don't ride bicycles !
I drive .
It's begun moving!
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/derivatives-...
who needs Netflix?
velocityjohnno wrote:It's begun moving!
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/derivatives-...
who needs Netflix?
Just in time for the horsies next Tuesday!!
Hmm that's different to what I saw the other day when I shared, was straight but that is now down quite a bit, looks like an increase for sure then.
well it's moved about 1/3 to half way, it reads about 95.80 which when - from100 = 4.2 so that's not the full 0.25 up from 4.1...
gsco had the magic formula up thread.
Uncertain. Keep watching I guess see what happens, Fed overnight was dovish with hints their run is over for now.
I agree with this one
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-31/rba-interest-rates-risk-coyote-st...
Also, building approvals are at a 10-year low - https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/bui...
When you thought that rents couldn't get any higher lifting rates, surging migration and low levels of investment into new real estate stock will send them into the stratosphere.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-30/rental-market-property-supply-plu...
"Australia's migrant population is expected to have grown by more than 700,000 between the 2022 and 2024 financial years."
But just remember if you question this you're a racist.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-29/australian-migrant-population-gro...
Andy
My guess is these figures are low .
My reading of the tea leaves has it about 400K p/a atm .
This , I think , is viewed by those who keep count as about the sustainable max .
I think the Australia population should be ? But aim for 50 million .
We have International clout now .
50 m will give us much more !
U young ones can work put when and where .
I reckon 300 million and aim to be the next superpower.
That'd be so cool.
I agree Andy .
300 million cool Australian's , showing the World , leading by example , what a United Nation ( ALL States and Territories need to be involved , except Canberra !!!) can do , would be cool .
We will have to build a Bigger G !
We can keep the capital in the ACT , or move it to Alice Springs .
Melbourne doesn't want it , again .
Sydney will get jealous , again .
So , perhaps , 50 in 10 years ? 300 then in 30 years ?
That sounds achievable , but my maths is crap .
Sounds awesome!
And the best thing is, there’d be virtually no negative impacts to speak of.
you gonna hit the water @pop? where are you at in your plans?
Pop Down wrote:Andy
My guess is these figures are low .My reading of the tea leaves has it about 400K p/a atm .
This , I think , is viewed by those who keep count as about the sustainable max .
I think the Australia population should be ? But aim for 50 million .
We have International clout now .
50 m will give us much more !
U young ones can work put when and where .
I can’t tell anymore if pop is taking the urine or not
Hello 6 , u are on the ball :)
Finished work today and was going to rush and pack and be in Marubrah with a Greek connection at 3pm tomorrow .
Have decided I don't DO rushing , any more !
Told him he would see me Saturday , sometime .
Have to drop a Santa sack , from my mum to brother in Yamba . Have never been there as he only moved there recently from New Brighton NSW .
Hope to have a surf there for a few days .
Then meeting 3 mates on the Goldy . Just sent them my latest prediction ( thanks Swellnet ) .
I banned the wife's as didn't want any fun going on in the apartment without me being involved .
The guys thought that sensible and were able to sell the story .
The 9th , 10th and 11th , very early Duranba , shoulder high , beachies . Perfect :)
Three haven't been in the ocean for a while with Byron Boy ( and his wife ) a double ski ( life saving ), paddle champion , almost , of the world ( he has a dicky ticker ) .
The old School Band is getting back together on the 11th ( I was roadie ) at the Middle Mullum pub on Sunday . One of the guys plays regularly there , a bass player ( his dad was Headmaster at Billinudget Primary for a hundred years , nearly ) and another mate is a drummer ( dad was Deputy Head at Mullum High and mum was the music teacher ) and will get a go .
I still nearly got expelled , only once , though .
Anyone , who is musical , can get up and join the regular band , for 3 songs , and go crazy . My mate says some incredible musicians pop up in Mullum . He asked me and Byron Boy to sing a song , I said I know Walzing Matilda and said maybe I would agree to play the fn triangle or some percussion hitting thing he has . Byron Boy , said Get F,,,eked . I will , try to , dance like Jaggar . I also said I don't carry heavy , anymore .
The bass player has told the old School Captain .
She still lives in the region , and still bosses the whole shire around like a conductor .
Everyone will know , now .
Her dad ran the train station at Billynudgel .
Anything could happen .
A bit of a 50 year reunion :)
Then my next , must be destination is , Toccumwall for a golf trip ( am shit house at golf as like surfing ) with the old football club's annual trip , 24 of us on the 23rd to 26th ( the only 3 rounds of 18 I do for the year ) .
I did win the trip once , ages ago , on King Island . My main drinking buddy couldn't make it .
So will be letting the wind and waves guide me , hopefully , in right direction .
I can't wait to put the boards on top ( usually one inside ) of Rocinante ( my faithful beast ), load up and just F off .
Such a good feeling imo .
Been too long since I have done this .
So , U all have been Warned .
Watch out .
I am , usually , the chatterbox , in the water , sitting miles out the back .
So , a bit noisey .
Have fun everyone .
ps 6 , I asked my mate to send me the song list .
He said I can just let him know , on the day , any big pub song from the 70's , 80's or 90's and they will work it out .
So no , and would need the choir .
Mullun ready haha , Mullum has experienced everything , already .
He probably records there .
Mullum is nothing like Nimbin .
6 , if you tell me where u surf , I will try and drop in on u :))
cool it's got you champing : ) Mullum ready for a Briggs cover by @pop?
oh, yeh, and how 'bout them house prices?
Sounds like you have some fun times ahead Pop! Enjoy!!
Thanks seedy .
It would be the ONE thing , perhaps , everyone on this site would agree with .
Jumping in a car with a full tank of petrol , having music blearing , ( I have a huge coffee ) a surfboard on top and going surfing is FUN .
The FED were Dovish .
Powell is always a Dovish presenter .
Markets seem to like this approach and often go up after he chats .
He is a Jawboner .
There is only one time the FED should Jawbone markets imho .
When the Ugly market animal turn really wild eg GFC .
When the Market has had enough of the HAND that feeds it .
A very scary moment imo .
Then the world panics and needs reassurance ( even if it's BS ) .
The FED has not lowered US growth below trend .
The labour market has not softened .
He mentioned Long and variable lags haha .
The FED has raised rates only once , 25 points in the last 6 months after an aggressive cycle ( going up from , almost , zero ) .
They have all their eggs in the inflation basket imho .
It's VERY hard to get inflation down when the government is increasing spending .
They got the rate down from 6-4 . The easy bit .
They THINK ( hope ) it's trending towards 2% , their target .
This is the VERY hard bit imho .
flollo wrote:I agree with this one
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-31/rba-interest-rates-risk-coyote-st...
Also, building approvals are at a 10-year low - https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/bui...
When you thought that rents couldn't get any higher lifting rates, surging migration and low levels of investment into new real estate stock will send them into the stratosphere.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-30/rental-market-property-supply-plu...
Yep.
I met this guy in G-land who has worked in all forms of property development for decades.
His assessment: surging migration maintains/increases demand and lack of new supply will keep putting upwards pressure on prices and especially rents.
Despite my rudimentary understanding of economics, I can't see anything that contradicts this fundamental law of supply and demand.
Interest rate rises are only slowing or flattening this fundamental reality (if at all).
freeride
I am no rocket scientist either .
People with common-sense get Economics better that too many experts in it .
Our regulators should concentrate on the supply side , urgently imo .
Common-sense tells me there is plenty of land and lovely places in Oz , to PLAN !!! to build some nice communities .
Even in Melbourne , there is plenty of vacant State Land that should be used better imho .
ok - house prices at record levels and a new record in the volume of new car sales.
Anectodotally - out and about I see zero families doing it tough; new cars, new bling, happy times. Which is great but just seems to be at odds with the "news"; what am I missing ?
Monkey
I think U are seeing reality atm . Add in travel and dinning out .
Perhaps still some people catching up after covid .
The figures show people are cutting back in some areas , many Consumer related stocks are seeing weak sales .
Maybe we bought all the gadgets , computers etc while shopping at home ?
Guessing a lot of Australians don't want rates much higher .
Shit , they MAY have to tighten their belts ?
I think the real news U are seeing , may be more reliable that the other News .
monkeyboy wrote:ok - house prices at record levels and a new record in the volume of new car sales.
Anectodotally - out and about I see zero families doing it tough; new cars, new bling, happy times. Which is great but just seems to be at odds with the "news"; what am I missing ?
in and around tweed heads there are plenty of people living in their cars or in tents . Homeless people prefer to pitch a tent where they can easily be seen as this means they are less likely to get mugged or robbed when not in their tent . Our workshop at the golf course is behind tweed city where at least 5 cars are parked there each morning and have been for the last 3 months that Ive been back at work . In a quiet public park near pigabeen a family with no car but a large tent have been camping there for 6 months at least . The last 2 years have seen a big increase in homelessness in Tweed shire , not sure if people have moved here for climate or whatever, there’s plenty of work and the people living in their cars are gone during the day , I’m assuming, to work .
Pop Down wrote:Thanks seedy .
It would be the ONE thing , perhaps , everyone on this site would agree with .
Jumping in a car with a full tank of petrol , having music blearing , ( I have a huge coffee ) a surfboard on top and going surfing is FUN .
You go get some old boy! I’m very jealous!
It’s a fixer upper https://m.
monkeyboy wrote:ok - house prices at record levels and a new record in the volume of new car sales.
Anectodotally - out and about I see zero families doing it tough; new cars, new bling, happy times. Which is great but just seems to be at odds with the "news"; what am I missing ?
We just had an October long weekend and like many others, I went camping. As we are a family of five we struggled to find anywhere for less than $100 a night. Ended up paying around $130 I believe. And the place was packed with 6 figures setups. It's incredible to see how many people have so much expensive gear. My setup is very DIY and modest. My income is quite good, stable, and above average. I would need to be making 4-5 times that amount to justify such camping extravagance in my own head. How do people afford all of this? And there are so many of them, where is this money coming from?
flollo wrote:monkeyboy wrote:ok - house prices at record levels and a new record in the volume of new car sales.
Anectodotally - out and about I see zero families doing it tough; new cars, new bling, happy times. Which is great but just seems to be at odds with the "news"; what am I missing ?We just had an October long weekend and like many others, I went camping. As we are a family of five we struggled to find anywhere for less than $100 a night. Ended up paying around $130 I believe. And the place was packed with 6 figures setups. It's incredible to see how many people have so much expensive gear. My setup is very DIY and modest. My income is quite good, stable, and above average. I would need to be making 4-5 times that amount to justify such camping extravagance in my own head. How do people afford all of this? And there are so many of them, where is this money coming from?
flollo, its mind blowing some of the setups people have, bit of a pissing comp type scenario and i often wonder how they afford it , i can only assume they are in serious debt or have done well in realestate.
i also feel your pain re the family of 5 holiday cost
Yeah seen the same when traveling and you see the same with boats out on the water or just boats around the place hardly anyone has old or small boats these days, so many huge new expensive boats , its just crazy how much money is out there.
I think in regard to monkeyboys post, from my own experience maybe it could be explained by that most people with a mortgage have had it for years so what they originally borrowed is very low compared to what is needed to buy now, and their repayment amounts are low (often less than what rent would be) so even with rate increases it affects them very little, add to that they have so much more equity in their homes from property price increases, so can borrow to buy new cars or even save to buy easily ...add to that their wages since starting a mortgage has increased.
Id expect the areas where you see hardship from rate rises is more in new estates in outer suburbs where people have bought at higher prices, have much higher repayments and every rate increase adds much more to that repayment.
"Everybody's locked into to much hock
To ever think about what they don't want you to know" - Don Walker
And to continue today's love affair with the smh:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inflation-fight-nation-s-big-bui...
I see the 30 day bill at the same 95.80 as of midday today, I really dunno about a rise.
one more for sufficing,
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/international-monetary-fund-says...
IMF has picked up on it too, 5.4% most recent inflation with 4.1% cash rate iirc, that's a negative real rate...
Yeah right, hike one more and then defer infrastructure spending?
Seems like the media is keen on the rate rise. Also, some are very keen to see a recession.
I fully agree with that one @udo.
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-derivatives-market/derivatives-...
red candle today (late mail?) and slight movement down to 95.78, well that still doesn't seem enough to me, and with 20mins to go, we'll wait and see how it really goes when the RBA speaks...
And that's a raise to 4.35%, the economists strike back! Well done guys. We'll see you all next month for the same fun & games...
Wow, big move late, yep lines up with the increase..
Just copped another rent increase notice today, nearly $100 per week more.
That's the second major one I've had in the last 2 years.
I'm guessing this new rate rise may have influenced the owners decision, or does the RE agent come up with the rent increase figures?
tubeshooter wrote:Just copped another rent increase notice today, nearly $100 per week more.
That's the second major one I've had in the last 2 years.
I'm guessing this new rate rise may have influenced the owners decision, or does the RE agent come up with the rent increase figures?
This is who really suffers IMO. Yes mortgage holders have to pay more but thats only 30% of residential property apparently. I havent dug into the stats but what is the percentage of properties that are rented because I would imagine an investor with increasing expenses would atempt to maintain their "yield" (feck I hate that word) by increasing rent to cover their loan increase ? ($100 a week seems unecessary though, maybe $100 a month ?)
Yeah $100 a week is huge!
Only ever had minor rent increases for over 10 years here, but the last 2 have really hurt.
I feel for those on the breadline. I'm not a rich bloke but I can probably absorb this one, but I'm wondering where it ends. Although I will try to negotiate this increase down by 50%, can only ask, been a long-term tenant with excellent history.
Stats in my town say that average rent prices have dropped by 6% in the last year and there is 45% less demand. So, I'm guessing they are going on the current average rental value for a 3 bdr house in my location. Unfortunately for me, my house is a lot older than 'the average' mansions you see around here these days.
Solving the housing affordability, rental and inflation crisis one day at a time - by adding 1098 new migrants per day in 2023?
Even the RBA is concerned:
"Migration surge adds to inflation pressure for RBA"
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says his government is "doing the lot" when it comes to the economy, environment and cost of living.
Maybe a burger with "the lot" is not the answer.
Everyone knows that the "burger with the lot" is more like a "three piece with a soda", to quote UFC fighter Jorge Masvidal.
And still, in a joint statement the governments of Australia and China welcomed “the contribution of people-to-people exchanges to the bilateral relationship, including the increasing exchanges of students, tourists and business people”.
Open slather becoming full bore.
monkeyboy wrote:tubeshooter wrote:Just copped another rent increase notice today, nearly $100 per week more.
That's the second major one I've had in the last 2 years.
I'm guessing this new rate rise may have influenced the owners decision, or does the RE agent come up with the rent increase figures?This is who really suffers IMO. Yes mortgage holders have to pay more but thats only 30% of residential property apparently. I havent dug into the stats but what is the percentage of properties that are rented because I would imagine an investor with increasing expenses would atempt to maintain their "yield" (feck I hate that word) by increasing rent to cover their loan increase ? ($100 a week seems unecessary though, maybe $100 a month ?)
Rough split has historically been 1/3 of houses owned unencumbered.. 1/3 have mortgage & owner occupied.. 1/3 are tenanted.
monkeyboy wrote:tubeshooter wrote:Just copped another rent increase notice today, nearly $100 per week more.
That's the second major one I've had in the last 2 years.
I'm guessing this new rate rise may have influenced the owners decision, or does the RE agent come up with the rent increase figures?This is who really suffers IMO. Yes mortgage holders have to pay more but thats only 30% of residential property apparently. I havent dug into the stats but what is the percentage of properties that are rented because I would imagine an investor with increasing expenses would atempt to maintain their "yield" (feck I hate that word) by increasing rent to cover their loan increase ? ($100 a week seems unecessary though, maybe $100 a month ?)
Rough split has historically been 1/3 of houses owned unencumbered.. 1/3 have mortgage & owner occupied.. 1/3 are tenanted.
Welcome to hell. pic.twitter.com/mE9W9lWIov
— the idiot tax (@TheIdiotTax) November 1, 2023
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers