House prices
velocityjohnno wrote:Nuts. Just got the notice that the electricity is about to go up 30%. Water falls from the sky and then goes down a big concrete hydro tube driving a generator and now that water and gravity costs 30% more than it did last month. I hereby declare that inflation is purely a monetary phenomenon. Wankers.
I never knew you lived in Tassie, what coast?
30% increase is silly, but some increases are justified when cost of wages & maintenance etc go up (5-10% would be reasonable increase)
But yeah its more, they do cause they can.
gsco. come on down.. :)
indo-dreaming][quote=velocityjohnno wrote:Nuts. Just got the notice that the electricity is about to go up 30%. Water falls from the sky and then goes down a big concrete hydro tube driving a generator and now that water and gravity costs 30% more than it did last month. I hereby declare that inflation is purely a monetary phenomenon. Wankers.
Ours did the same in Qld back in June - AGL.
We moved immediately onto NECTR using the government comparison site which is remarkably very good; and our bill is now less than it was prior to AGL upping their tarrifs (and adding a new one for usage between 4pm and 9pm).
Given the electricity comes from the same place and the only difference is the retailer it makes you wonder what you're paying for.
Hi Alfred W, yep, we know about the cost of the 90 x 45 lengths intimately as the young one is apprenticed to install them :) At one stage early on in pandemic the US took nearly all available lumber (I started showing him the US lumber futures chart as an idea of the swings & how unnatural this was). He was lucky as a large amount of these lengths had been stockpiled in lead up to a big project - however we learned of other suppliers going bust when having to source at spiked prices, and there were daisy chains of defaults and bust businesses - which ironically leads to more work for those still solvent. I bet Indo has some stories about these as well.
The Ms decided on extra renovations and extensions earlier in the year and we're putting it in - so money for the Apricus unit will be found later in the year. Sigh. Houses. I'd much rather burn coin on old muscle cars or classic 4wds or classic boards.
Eagerly awaiting a total dune reconstruction template! Change we could do now so our great grandkids get easy barrels.
Indo - we're not in Tas, but use their provider. So *technically* it's green energy that powers all my Swellnet musings for the last decade or so, but like swap certificates, only sort of. Plus solar on roof. Tassie - lived there for about a year or more overall, love the place. Fav coasts were NW (when it got waves), NE which was magic, certain bits around Hobart and SE, some stuff on islands, and the raw and wild west coast which was like Margs without anything there.
While I'm there, iirc there was a classic story about being too enthusiastic with hydro energy and ... D'oh.
https://utilitymagazine.com.au/failure-of-basslink-cable-revealed/
And so it being hydro, this is why I'm pissed with the 30% increase news - I can understand every other provider caught in a gas squeeze, or a coal squeeze, given the hikes in commodities after the covid splurge; but, I would have thought clean energy already built out, would not be subject to such increases. It can only be currency devaluation bought about by too much printing of currency, or no rain falling so having to buy off other providers (West Coast Tas got well over average rain this year so water levels should be healthy) or the company absolutely stuffing up it's hedges (like a competitor did recently). Otherwise a 5-10% gain via wages is understandable.
@velocityjohnno
Oh okay, yes i do recall a conversation with you once about NW coast reefs.
Tassie is a beautiful place and generally speaking down to earth friendly people, its just such a shame about the climate, Victoria is bad enough.
bonza, the left aligned media routinely belt out the "record profits are the cause of all of society's problems" claptrap. I remember they also recently did it with AGL (and had to eat their words) and are now trying to do it with Origin.
But both AGL and Origin are coming off losses and/or overall low profit bases, so any even small absolute change in profits can translate into a large percent change. Their profits are volatile and have been swinging between losses and profits for years.
- https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AGL.AX/financials?p=AGL.AX
- https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORG.AX/financials?p=ORG.AX
fyi only reason I'm not posting much anymore is I drifted north to check things out again, and am a bit busy..
A tune for the Fed Jackson Hole meeting
I'd say it isn't Powell who's responsible for a lot of the pain and anger expressed in above vid but rather 50 years of monetary/trade/social policy. Millions of US technical jobs sent offshore (and our industrial base eviscerated). I mean, Greenspan put and QE didn't help as asset prices were not permitted to correct/revert to mean, which would make life a lot more affordable for everyday people, so I guess CBs are in the naughty corner there too.
The song is going viral btw, singer refused an 8mil contract, too.
(epic Gary Clail presentation there San Guine)
Dead Cat bounce IMO.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/08/30/inflation-4-9-per-cent-jul...
With fuel prices at record highs and no significant drop in sight, I'm expecting a jump in inflation over the next reporting period/s as fuel prices have a massive knock on effect through all goods and services.
Bizarre that this article reported a 7.6% drop in fuel prices in July??
RBA on hold
AUD taken to the woodshed
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AUDUSD=X
someone with a take on real inflation figures
Australia RBA preview.
— Dog's Breakfast (@breakfast_dogs) September 4, 2023
House prices heading for new highs, rents breaking out again, wages +10% y-on-y, MI inflation new record high, nearly double the top of the target band.
So...another hold? pic.twitter.com/85ecX9iuKB
Pacific Peso here we come, that will surely import yet more inflation
Great for terms of trade though, even with falling commodity prices.
velocityjohnno wrote:RBA on hold
AUD taken to the woodshed
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AUDUSD=X
someone with a take on real inflation figures
https://twitter.com/breakfast_dogs/status/1698836884875846011
Pacific Peso here we come, that will surely import yet more inflation
Which is why I said dead cat bounce above. Let’s not forget high fuel prices which cascade through to everything we consume.
I love the confidence of the banks saying no more rate rises until end of 2024. Bahahahaha. I think old mate Phil Lowe is now working for the banks!! :)
I’m in the market for the property and prices are definitely not dropping. And sales cycles seem to be very short.
Yep, correction, such as it was, seems over.
flollo wrote:I’m in the market for the property and prices are definitely not dropping. And sales cycles seem to be very short.
totally
been there myself recently
its a bloody jungle out there!
two speed economy totally embedded now
(overseas buyers / new migrants not helping at all - thanks labor!)
freeride76 wrote:Yep, correction, such as it was, seems over.
Again a temporary dead cat bounce.
Properties for sale around Tweed Coast are definitely increasing in numbers and staying on the market considerably longer.
#The South Will Rise Again!
Livin’ in the new world
With an old soul
These rich men north of Richmond
Lord knows they all just wanna have total control
Wanna know what you think, wanna know what you do
And they don’t think you know, but I know that you do
‘Cause your dollar ain’t shit and it’s taxed to no end
‘Cause of rich men north of Richmond
I wish politicians would look out for miners
And not just minors on an island somewhere
Lord, we got folks in the street, ain’t got nothin’ to eat
And the obese milkin’ welfare
God, if you’re 5 foot 3 and you’re 300 pounds
Taxes ought not to pay for your bags of fudge rounds
Young men are puttin’ themselves six feet in the ground
‘Cause all this damn country does is keep on kickin’ them down
#Punch Up Not Down, & Have A Good Look Around, Redneck
Australia is in per capita recession:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12485297/Immigration-surge-maki...
Recession is disguised by the huge number of population increase; average Australian is getting poorer. Banks doing well.
Huge productivity drop will raise eyebrows in the RBA for sure.
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/households-run-down-savings-buffers-a...
Some impressive drops in discretionary spending.
Still some Cheap Dirt Avail at Kalbarri
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-residential+land-wa-kalbarri-2036...
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-residential+land-wa-kalbarri-2036...
Some much space . And such a little block.
udo wrote:Still some Cheap Dirt Avail at Kalbarri
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-residential+land-wa-kalbarri-2036...
$80 grand! What’s the catch?
Last few Sales in that area have been around 70K
goofyfoot wrote:udo wrote:Still some Cheap Dirt Avail at Kalbarri
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-residential+land-wa-kalbarri-2036...$80 grand! What’s the catch?
It’s in the middle of nowhere for most people
There’s plenty of cheap land around the country but people either don’t know about it or are unwilling/unable to leave metro areas.
Yep.
I lived in Kalbarri for a year.
Loved it, but one road in, one road out. Arid climate.
Fish bowl town with one wave.
Awesome fishing.
Wouldn't suit many people.
For that price you’d stick a caravan on it and head there over winter for a month or two
I hear Stiles Rd area 8 kms out of Town has an Eeriness to it
Groundy you around ?
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-kalbarri-141533636
Had a Deliverance vibe when I was there, but close to the best tailor fishing in the area.
udo wrote:I hear Stiles Rd area 8 kms out of Town has an Eeriness to it
Groundy you around ?https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-kalbarri-141533636
That house is hideous
Agreed Udo - what on earth is it that. It looks like the old volunteer fire service building I used to clean in Broome lol.
Also $680k to live in Kalbarri? Far out Australia is a ridiculous place.
Prime site for a commercial return. Could let it out to travelling surfers (call it Jake's Place to give it a locally feel), or maybe indulge your inner Walter White?
Covered parking for 11 cars, reckon you are onto something Stu.
Jakes is a tricky wave for travelling surfers- locals are on it hard core when crayfish season isn't on.
Which is prime swell season.
You're going to get scraps.
If you are prepared to chance if off season when most of the locals are pulling pots 3am-midday, you can get it to yourself.
You'll have to sit through flat spells and stinking hot weather to do it though. That red earth there gets unbelievably hot when hot air starts to drift down from the heat dome over Marble Bar-Meekatharra.
Long way to drive for a strike mission, out of season.
But yeah, the market exists for a Walter white set-up, or even what they call Kalbarri gold (shitty leaf and tip).
goofyfoot wrote:udo wrote:I hear Stiles Rd area 8 kms out of Town has an Eeriness to it
Groundy you around ?https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-kalbarri-141533636
That house is hideous
It is its got hardly any natural light, that brick is horrible and the design and layout is terrible.
But you could still do a lot with it, open up some areas with some bifolds, and just lining those walls with gyprock painted a light colour would soften things up a lot.
But fuck what you get in land size, ocean views, building size, sheds, pools etc would cost you millions anywhere else in Australia that close to the coast.
If it had a good variety of waves especially rights id move there in a heart beat, but one heavy hollow left, no good for me and Felipe.
Sold for 440k in 2020.
stunet wrote:Prime site for a commercial return. Could let it out to travelling surfers (call it Jake's Place to give it a locally feel), or maybe indulge your inner Walter White?
The vibe i got was it looks like a place that would belong to a cult.
udo wrote:I hear Stiles Rd area 8 kms out of Town has an Eeriness to it
Groundy you around ?https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-kalbarri-141533636
There's not much in the soil there. Wait till you take in 10,000 acres of similar sand.
Coming from that kind of area, I'm still spun out I can plant almost anything in the garden here and it will do well, with no attention. And it gets rain, so often.
indo-dreaming wrote:stunet wrote:Prime site for a commercial return. Could let it out to travelling surfers (call it Jake's Place to give it a locally feel), or maybe indulge your inner Walter White?
The vibe i got was it looks like a place that would belong to a cult.
Young Liberals? :)
This interview is the US market but similar factors might be at work here.
Summary points:
- lots of unsold hidden inventory not in statistics for various reasons (private builders, paperwork not done, pretend occupancy in unsold estates, inventory not treated as completed but not sold, lots of listings not on main web sites used by Fed for data)
- unaffordability - too many high end builds - only 23% of spec homes affordable to middle class
- big builders cost model their inventory rather than marking things to true value to keep books looking okay
- housing shortage is a myth
- builders extending and pretending but running out of time before reality hits.
- high interest rates limiting demand
Housing and the economy is running on the soft landing narrative fumes.
?feature=shared I mean if we all marked to market that would be price discovery and capitalism and we can't have that
Financial Twilight Zone since '08
Why Australia's housing crisis is a warning to the world:
Shane Oliver: immigration and housing affordability:
https://www.amp.com.au/insights-hub/blog/investing/olivers-insights-immi...
ABC: The impact of AirBNB and Stayz on Australia's housing crisis:
I’m looking at the house that’s selling for $1m. Last sold in 1997 for $90k. But before that, sold for $145k in 1991. So, whoever bought it in 1991 lost 6 years and a fair bit of money on it.
Ironically, this looks like a good deal. It is by far the cheapest house in the area. All the sales since 2017 were $1m+. The reason it’s cheap is because it is barely liveable. The place is awful. Anything quality in this pocket is $2m+.
Anyway, just an example of where we currently are.
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers