COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Statistics say so much… :)
Speaking of vaccinations, heard an interesting story last night. A group of colleagues went out for a meal recently, first catch up after the end of the lockdown. Of the 12, all double vaxed healthcare workers, 10 contracted COVID that night. The source was traced back to the restaurant, an unvaccinated waiter. Minor symptoms but 7 days iso for all, could only return after a negative pcr test.
Interestingly, while one bloke was able to infect 10 (that we know of) serving the table, there have been no further close contact transmissions from those 10.
Btw, the 2 who didn’t catch it were sitting by the door.
blackers wrote:Speaking of vaccinations, heard an interesting story last night. A group of colleagues went out for a meal recently, first catch up after the end of the lockdown. Of the 12, all double vaxed healthcare workers, 10 contracted COVID that night. The source was traced back to the restaurant, an unvaccinated waiter. Minor symptoms but 7 days iso for all, could only return after a negative pcr test.
Interestingly, while one bloke was able to infect 10 (that we know of) serving the table, there have been no further close contact transmissions from those 10.
Btw, the 2 who didn’t catch it were sitting by the door.
1 selfish prick is all it takes. The faster the no jab no job is enforced the better.
(No jab no govt money also, then watch-the rush to get vaxxed).
Roadkill wrote:blackers wrote:Speaking of vaccinations, heard an interesting story last night. A group of colleagues went out for a meal recently, first catch up after the end of the lockdown. Of the 12, all double vaxed healthcare workers, 10 contracted COVID that night. The source was traced back to the restaurant, an unvaccinated waiter. Minor symptoms but 7 days iso for all, could only return after a negative pcr test.
Interestingly, while one bloke was able to infect 10 (that we know of) serving the table, there have been no further close contact transmissions from those 10.
Btw, the 2 who didn’t catch it were sitting by the door.1 selfish prick is all it takes. The faster the no jab no job is enforced the better.
(No jab no govt money also, then watch-the rush to get vaxxed).
Vaccinated spread the virus just the same as unvaccinated. Stop talking shit.
https://www.thelocal.de/20210918/explained-what-does-super-spreader-even...
udo wrote:https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-drugs-are-here-and-they-could-chan...
Interesting read udo , I’m still trying to understand what happened with GAVI supplying poorer nations with the vaccine , UK just threw away a heap of AZ that had reached its expiry date , seems to be happening all around the world .
"Vaccinated spread the virus just the same as unvaccinated. Stop talking shit."
Doctor blowin is in da house.
Even in your wildest dreams blowin, do you think anyone here believes your complete bullshit?
2 years of utter crap on the subject of covid, and you're still going strong.
If you put this much effort into ditch digging, you may have actually achieved something.
Fake news…children don’t die from covid. :)
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/child-under-10-dies-with-cov...
Blowin wrote:Roadkill wrote:blackers wrote:Speaking of vaccinations, heard an interesting story last night. A group of colleagues went out for a meal recently, first catch up after the end of the lockdown. Of the 12, all double vaxed healthcare workers, 10 contracted COVID that night. The source was traced back to the restaurant, an unvaccinated waiter. Minor symptoms but 7 days iso for all, could only return after a negative pcr test.
Interestingly, while one bloke was able to infect 10 (that we know of) serving the table, there have been no further close contact transmissions from those 10.
Btw, the 2 who didn’t catch it were sitting by the door.1 selfish prick is all it takes. The faster the no jab no job is enforced the better.
(No jab no govt money also, then watch-the rush to get vaxxed).
Vaccinated spread the virus just the same as unvaccinated. Stop talking shit.
https://www.thelocal.de/20210918/explained-what-does-super-spreader-even...
Still don’t get it, do you! No surprise.
"Still don’t get it, do you! No surprise"
Well Roadkill, it takes a very special kind of idiot who is so sure his medical opinions are right (despite zero formal training in the health industry) and the opinions of the vast majority of medical experts are wrong.
150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide. All marching for freedom today! Incredible scenes. No Polly can ignore those numbers because they know for everyone on the streets there’s at least another 10 who are thinking it.. Well done Australia!!
Covid is spiked by...
Population > Peak Holidays > Re-opening > Mass Rollout > Kidz > Arid Wind > Low immunity
Population : (No / Full vax!) Islands > Micronesia (Covid Free) > NZ (low covid) > England (Mass Covid)
Peak Holidays : Xmas / Easter / Worker's Holidays re: (End July-August-Sept) > Resorts!
Re-openings : Transit Pollution spreads the Virus thru City Hot Spots.
"Mass" Rollout : 4wk incubation spikes > @ 60% Vax Resistant Spike > Waning Phase Calendar.
Kidz : Have better innate / Mucosal immunity, so can harbour more infectious Viral Load than Adults.
Arid Winds : Shift or Spell of Dry Weather Arcs up Covid to superspread massive outbreaks
Low Immunity : Peak Covid > Dry weather > Low Mucosal Immunity > Dry nose / throat = (Infection)
Of note is Low Temp / Winds only play a role by the fact that it dries out the Arena for Covid to race.
tbb recently shared how Reflux Patients have Acidic Esophagus & Dry Noses (High Risk of Dying)
Snotty Runts > Kidz, have high Mucosal Immunity due to more interaction with Viruses (Low risk)
Being able to harbour the virus longer it can evolve into new faster or hopefully slower variants.
Do Covid Vaccines offer Mucosal Immunity...(Depends on individuals!)
Intramuscular Vax tours everywhere 1,000 fold & more & too exhausted for frontline Nasal Mucosa..
One can swizzle & claim Eureka Prize but Vax immunity is not reliably functional to prevent infection.
Study :
mRNA (2 days after > 1 dose in 64% 2nd Dose in 84%) Present but not active over 50 days > (Drops)
Inactivated Vax (14 days after 1 dose 47.8% + 28 d after 2nd Dose in 95.6%) Gone by 55 days
Reminding Youth / maximum Sleep timed with Vax strengthens the chance of frontline nasal Immunity.
Melatonin / Nasal Cold sprays to boost frontline Vax defence never saw the light of day...move on...
Also offset mRNA 4wk highest 26.24-38.6 /10K Incubating infection rate (vs) Unvaxed = 21.9/10K
Seems Holidays / Vax / Rollout / Phases won't change + lockdowns are wearing thin...so where to now!
Seasonal Covid Timetables and forecasts...
https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/08/18/low-humidity-incr....
Can swellnet Covid-19 Health System Overload Forecaster predict Outbreaks?
Results may surprise many...current warnings would read something like this...
Qld 36-48 hrs Test Sample Result (Brisbane BOM Data)
Peak Covid [ Warning ] W winds > Low Humidity range 18% - max 57%
Covid Free via 4 days + / NE Salty Seabreeze of High Humidity range min 57% -100%
Larger drop in humidity or grouped o/n - days would spike Covid in Qld.
Guess what! Qld is renowned for sudden Cold Snaps lasting 3/4 days...A Welcome Mat for Covid.
Victoria > 48 hrs Test Sample Result (Melbourne BOM Data)
Peak Covid [ Warning ] WNW winds > Humidity range 29% - max 57%
Turns safe with (33% drop) via SE salty seabreeze > Humidity range 83% - max100%
Melbourne Humidity Avg is not low but has ever changing sudden 1 day drops / rises in humidity.
One can imagine that the Virus has more options with less constant rush of Salt air to move it out
NSW > 72hrs Test Sample Result (Sydney BOM Data)
Peak Covid [ Warning ] WNW winds > Humidity range 13% - max 59%
Lone High 'W' wind Humid Day/s...twas the endless stream of Salty Sea Breezes ' killed off the beast.
By the time the lone Humid 93% 'NE' day arrived the busy seabreeze long had Covid on the run.
tbb would definitely argue seabreeze over humidity in Sydney's drop in covid! (Not one or the other!)
Meaning, BOM or Weather Godz could have a crack at Covid during nightly / weekly Warnings!
[ Factcheck ] Mass Daily Case corruption needs to be sorted for further NSW studies...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/nsw-coronavirus-cases-likely-high...
NSW Health :"Community Covid Patient Flow Portal onboarded patients are unregistered!" (Page 7)
https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/670528/ACI-Car...
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/covid-hospital-care-rate...
2,397 / 2,610 current NSW cases are treated off the record at home...(Nearly all are vaccinated!)
https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/critical-intelligence-unit#risk-m...
ACT > 72 hrs Test Sample Result (Canberra BOM Data)
Peak Covid [ Warning ] WNW winds > Humidity range 26% - max 55%
Canberra lacks seabreeze ( Long Covid season) NE winds > Humidity range 60%-100%
Canberra begs for a spike in Humidity or a few days of Sea Breezes to rid Covid. (In yer dreams!)
Poor buggers never ever get a sniff of sea breeze so Covid season drags on & on & on & on...bummer!
It's as if the Virus knows each City inside out to further exploit each seasonal weakness!
We are looking at both Rollout & Virus as massive lively organisms that interplay.
tbb can match Low Humidity to said delayed outbreaks (Test / Home numbers also figure as a players )
eg: A Melbourne Seachange lowered cases but a Test Spike knocked 20% off 40% Seachange effect.
tbb showed Test Examples but can confirm the miles of data that weds Covid to Low Humidity.
Well done Sydney Uni & many others onto this...(BOM > Offers No whole Pandemic Data!)
If BOM got involved on Frontline...Oz could get a better handle on predicting outbreaks.
Oz has Heatwave / Smoke / Smog / Flood Pathogen / Stingers > Virus Warnings...Why Not!
Just a very noisy, very stupid minority. Anti vax, conspiracy nutters with shit for brains, being played by scum like Clive Palmer.
Meanwhile back in sane Australia, anyone associating themselves or condoning these morons is taking a beating in the polls.
The Vic Libs actively weaponised this mob, and their polling is collapsing. It's all gone horribly pear-shaped for Lobster Guy.
shortenism wrote:150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide. All marching for freedom today! Incredible scenes. No Polly can ignore those numbers because they know for everyone on the streets there’s at least another 10 who are thinking it.. Well done Australia!!
What do you reckon will be the outcome Shorto?
Craig Kelly at Sydney rally and Clive Palmer at Brisbane rally.... 2 individuals who could do without Covid by the looks of them ....
Wonder if they are vaxxed?
Has anyone asked?
Serious question.....
What do you reckon will be the outcome Shorto?
Let me answer that one thanks free ride.
There will be no impact on policy or legislation because a bunch of morons played dress up and marched in the streets. They are just a bunch of Karens and man-karens telling everyone what they don't like. There's no solutions to any problems. There's no well thought out plan, but there's a shit load of contradictions going on with this mob.
Politically there's a few possible outcomes from the Trumpification of Australian politics. This mob's vote could quite easily be steered to the LNP by the string pullers. Scumo is actively sympathising with the rabble in the street, and many LNP are outright supporters of the nutters. This could well backfire spectacularly. Aligning with nutters may result in the LNP losing the middle ground. God I hope there's enough people in Australia who can see through the anti-everything bullshit and hand Scumo an almighty thrashing at the next election.
shortenism wrote:150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide. All marching for freedom today! Incredible scenes. No Polly can ignore those numbers because they know for everyone on the streets there’s at least another 10 who are thinking it.. Well done Australia!!
And if they were all like a certain surf shop owner from the MP then they are all brain fried drug fucked pieces of cow dung that are dangerous to the young groms of the area due to the fake news conspiracy theory bullshit they are promoting. You know who you are
shortenism wrote:150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide. All marching for freedom today! Incredible scenes. No Polly can ignore those numbers because they know for everyone on the streets there’s at least another 10 who are thinking it.. Well done Australia!!
+27 in DumDum. 197 in Parkes. 39,000 in Tassie, 176,000 in StupidAsFuck. 73 in NFI. etc etc…amazing freedom fighters.
shortenism wrote:150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide. All marching for freedom today! Incredible scenes. No Polly can ignore those numbers because they know for everyone on the streets there’s at least another 10 who are thinking it.. Well done Australia!!
Funny the numbers you choose to believe Shortenism. Plenty of people but 200k in Melbourne is overcooking it.
shortenism wrote:150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide. All marching for freedom today! Incredible scenes. No Polly can ignore those numbers because they know for everyone on the streets there’s at least another 10 who are thinking it.. Well done Australia!!
Those numbers are precisely from what source? Complete BS
This is what 100,000 protestors look like
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/50-years-on-the-...
Yeah, nah. About 3,000 in Melbourne today. Back in 2010 close to 20,000 rallied to protest against the Tote being forced to close.
So bit of perspective there.
"150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide. All marching for freedom today! Incredible scenes. No Polly can ignore those numbers because they know for everyone on the streets there’s at least another 10 who are thinking it.. Well done Australia!!"
you can contend the actual figures all you want... the reality is, there's a shitload of people out there in the streets...
this is especially the case considering
1) australia is opening up - the moment has passed really - people should be apathetic
2) it's not just vicco - ie. the bill - so whatever vicvocal says... once again... he's irrefutably full of shit...
3) the vaccine rates are through the roof in oz - with such high vax rates, this is well beyond antivaxxers... and clearly a heap the vaccinated are at these protests...
I honesty don't know what the main thing is, I just think it is amazing so many are motivated by something
I do know it's not good for the toxic moralisers on here though... the collective psychosis just got another big shot in the arm...
crazy town political times ahead!
at all angles
The outcome? If you’re a politician you can’t ignore today’s numbers and the cross section represented. And I don’t reckon we’ve seen anything yet...
They know once ppl rise up like this their shit fkery and them along with it is dust.
And just like that 2 village idiots try to ignore the lies and look the other way. Lol.
shortenism wrote:The outcome? If you’re a politician you can’t ignore today’s numbers and the cross section represented. And I don’t reckon we’ve seen anything yet...
They know once ppl rise up like this their shit fkery and them along with it is dust.
Dan Andrew’s can happily ignore these morons and he must laugh when the LNP muppets embrace this idiot mob. Seen the latest poll champ? 58:42. To the ALP. Ouch.
I keep telling you lot stop getting your truth from 7,9,10 and the ABC... of course they are saying 3000 in Melbourne Patrick007 ffs.
Yeah I did see that poll.. who’s doing the polling? You ever been polled? More shit fkery.
NEWSFLASH my recently retired Doc who lives a couple houses up was walking past me as I was mowing the verge this morning. I quickly cut the mower for a chat. He’s had the jab, regrets it everyday, reckons he was coerced wanting to see his grandkids interstate.. But yet to get there. Didn’t take it for health reasons he’s a fit 71.. He went on to quote the specific section of the Constitution, which states the inability for the govt to force or coerce a medical procedure, reckons it’s all about the numbers they aren’t quoting I.e. suicides, bowel and breast cancers from no access to frequent testing then went on to say that the average spend per person on health in their lifetime is $74,000 but based on the funds poured into COVID it’s over $10M per registered case... he went on to talk about how when you get over 85 something is gonna get you and how many of his patients would welcome something to take them when they are lingering around in nursing homes for too long.. he then went on to talk about his real worry with the grandkids and the debt this country is racking up.. I then asked if he wanted to join us at the rally today, which he respectfully declined but knew about next weeks and is locked in. Yeah Doc.
Fk the haters.
Reckon Reality TV is asleep at the Wheel...Universal Audience goes begging.
It's a Knockout..Protester Blood Bath would rate the fuck outta Hollywood & Netflix.
More exciting than Athletes kneeling at the Freezing Cold War Olympics
Tonight's Teams
[ KILL THE BILL ] (vs) { Dan's BearCat litter}
[ Here we Joh Again ] vs { Smash Anna's Police State }
{ Respect Existence } vs # Expect Resistance #
[ Dan's Dogsbody's Choice ] vs { Choose Weapons - Vax or The Axe }
( NO JAB ) vs { NO JOB }
[ All Health procedures involve risk ] vs { WHO said Vax was Healthy }
{ PM's Coffee Mugs } vs ( Double Dose of Dan's Dangerous Doublespeak )
shortenism wrote:NEWSFLASH my recently retired Doc who lives a couple houses up was walking past me as I was mowing the verge this morning. I quickly cut the mower for a chat. He’s had the jab, regrets it everyday, reckons he was coerced wanting to see his grandkids interstate.. But yet to get there. Didn’t take it for health reasons he’s a fit 71.. He went on to quote the specific section of the Constitution, which states the inability for the govt to force or coerce a medical procedure, reckons it’s all about the numbers they aren’t quoting I.e. suicides, bowel and breast cancers from no access to frequent testing then went on to say that the average spend per person on health in their lifetime is $74,000 but based on the funds poured into COVID it’s over $10M per registered case... he went on to talk about how when you get over 85 something is gonna get you and how many of his patients would welcome something to take them when they are lingering around in nursing homes for too long.. he then went on to talk about his real worry with the grandkids and the debt this country is racking up.. I then asked if he wanted to join us at the rally today, which he respectfully declined but knew about next weeks and is locked in. Yeah Doc.
Fk the haters.
This hilarious….and complete made up bs. You’re getting as bad as blowin with stories.
Supafreak wrote:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-19/austria-to-enter-national-lockdow...
Some of the highest infection rates…some of the lowest vaccination rates.
The unvaxed at fault again.
Yes good boy roadkill starting to question anything that says ‘newsflash’ ! There is hope for you after all! Just know where to apply it, not on my post. Start with your morning newspaper.
shortenism wrote:150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide.
I hear the WSL are interested in your skills of audience estimation.
For comparison, the MCG holds 100,000 people, so 200K Melbourne protesters is the equivalent of two AFL Grand Final crowds.
Oh yeah more beat up. Switch it off... What happened to all the India posts a few months back that whipped you into a frenzy?? Burning bodies, ppl dropping dead in the street... then....?
One of the best placard signs yesterday read:
‘Imagine a virus so deadly that it doesn’t effect those who don’t give a shit’
Bravo
Lock these billions of people down now!
They need to be forcibly injected and denied access to society if they resist. It’s the only way and it’s totally not authoritarian! The Nazis…..oops, the Austrians……know the way forward is to have the government seperate the population into the acceptable and the rejected based on an injection which doesn’t prevent the transmission of a virus which is no worse than the flu for almost all healthy people!
Lucky we are following the Nazis….oops, Austria.
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-pandemics...
Isn’t it amazing how little impact Covid has on populations when they don’t have a local version of Kochie on Sunrise telling them how scared they should be?
Still laughing at 200,000 in Melb. Lmao
Hey shortenism, did you know that if you get a cop to say that you're a "living human" and then say "I do not consent" the only laws they can arrest you on are maritime laws under the constitution.
Use this wisely my friend. It's 100% effective on land, but be careful using those lines with the water pigs, as I'm still researching the legalities of those cops arresting you.
Oh and BTW I personally know of 6 people who got the jab yesterday and started talking in tongues.
Just because you weren’t there fellas and didn’t see it on the news doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.. I’m sure the images will be circulating.. and yeah maybe the numbers are very approximate but whatever way you look at it they were very large numbers of very motivated ppl from all walks of life.
Why am I not surprised that you know 6 ppl who talk in tongue VL? They playing banjos as well?
shortenism wrote:Just because you weren’t there fellas and didn’t see it on the news doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.. I’m sure the images will be circulating.. and yeah maybe the numbers are very approximate but whatever way you look at it they were very large numbers of very motivated ppl from all walks of life.
Walk it back Shorty….it won’t help, you're still a credibility free zone.
Plenty of people say they were abducted by aliens…just because no one else was there and it wasn't on the news doesn't mean it didn't happen? Is that correct, Shorty?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/pandemic-triggers-mass-exodus-of-critica.... Australian College of Nursing chief executive Kylie Ward said roughly 20,000 nurses had given up their registration this year, a number that had shocked her during a global pandemic.
thermalben wrote:shortenism wrote:150,000 in Bris, 150,000 in Syd, 200,000 in Melbourne, 40,000 in Perth, 20,000 Adelaide.
I hear the WSL are interested in your skills of audience estimation.
For comparison, the MCG holds 100,000 people, so 200K Melbourne protesters is the equivalent of two AFL Grand Final crowds.
To be fair i did see these figures being flung around elsewhere, not sure the source most likely over estimated, and id expect some under estimate too.
.
Supafreak wrote:https://www.smh.com.au/national/pandemic-triggers-mass-exodus-of-critica.... Australian College of Nursing chief executive Kylie Ward said roughly 20,000 nurses had given up their registration this year, a number that had shocked her during a global pandemic.
An interesting read Super. This quote was pretty telling…
“A recent survey by Monash University and Royal Melbourne Hospital of more than 7800 Australian healthcare workers (most of them based in Victoria) found more than 40 per cent had symptoms of PTSD by the final stages of the state’s second wave.“
Shorto, I accept there were a lot of people out on the streets yesterday.
Genuinely curious as to what you think the outcome might be?
Were there any political demands being made?
You want to know what an effective protest looks like shortenism?
The Rally for East Timor in Melbourne. The federal government had no intention on saving the East Timorese from the Indonesian army / militias. The call for the rally went out, and the following day 50,000 people from all walks of life marched to treasury gardens where the Federal cabinet were meeting. We could see the MPs looking down at the crowd. They knew we had a point, they knew it was morally unjustifiable to stand back and watch people get slaughtered, and after the march they knew it was going to cost them big time politically.
That night, the Australia government announced troops were going in. That's an effective protest.
The freedumb rally has none of those qualities. Much smaller numbers, no clear message, idiots, nazis, violent, and more. They will continue to be ignored by state governments because they are loose cannons.
I reckon scumo will be regretting jumping into bed with the freedumb mob.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia