South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th December)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: strong SE swells with good winds for semi-exposed points. Mon: easing swells but good conditions. Tues/Wed: good chance for some more E'ly groundswell with good winds. 

Recap: Small leftover surf with variable conditions on Tuesday. Northerlies created problems for much of the day (north of Evans Head) but winds went offshore in the wake of strong afternoon thunderstorms (36mm in 30mins at Cooly? And 42mm at the Seaway in under an hour? Well done!). Light to moderate SW tending SE winds have provided clean conditions at most locations today alongside small residual swells.

This week (Dec 11th - 12th)

Love these complex weather patterns! We’ve got a developing low off the southern NSW coast on Thursday that’ll dictate our surf, wind and weather for the following couple of days, but ultimately Thursday will see strengthening northerly winds in most areas with small residual swells. 

Winds should be light and variable north of Byron to begin with (and will strengthen throughout the afternoon) but conversely, winds are expected to be fresh northerly along the Mid North Coast in the morning, easing into the afternoon as a trough envelops the region ahead of a late southerly change. 

The outlook for Friday is very tricky. Model guidance is extremely varied, even just between consecutive runs of the same model. But, decisions have to be made so here's my thoughts.

I think we’ll see building SE swells from a broad south-east fetch developing on the lower flank of the Tasman Low. This should push up along the Northern NSW coast during the day but will be accompanied by strengthening SE winds, which will obviously create terrible conditions at open beaches. We should see this influence into SE Qld by mid-late afternoon. 

For the most part, Friday’s conditions will be heavily dictated by the local winds, in particular SE Qld surfers really won’t be able to make use of the incoming swell until the trough axis moves north and winds swing southerly, then south-east. It’s hard to have any confidence on the timing of the change either, as the trough’s northward speed is likely to be unpredictable at best. 

Probably a better way to look at Friday is like this: if you’re looking to surf semi-exposed points, aim for the latter part of the day. If you think you can find somewhere handling the preceding northerly flow (ahead of the southerly change), then aim for an open beaches early morning (except on the Mid North Coast, where the change will push through early). 

And how big? Should see easy 6ft+ sets at exposed Northern NSW beaches by close of business (obviously, smaller earlier). If we’re really lucky, the semi-exposed Gold Coast points may see 3ft+ sets in the few hours before dark (with less confidence for the Sunny Coast due to its position further north). But there’s a myriad of factors that could affect this so keep an eye on our surfcams. I'll update in the comments below throughout the day if there are any extenuating circumstances.

This weekend (Dec 13th - 14th)

We’ve got an exciting weekend of waves ahead, and a challenging forecast to produce at my end. 

The Tasman Low is expected to meander around the central Tasman through Saturday, in fact the latest model guidance has a slow south/south-easterly drift with only a minor decrease in strength (and no real fetch retraction either). As such we’re looking at a strong weekend of swell with possibly a slight drop in size between Saturday and Sunday, but also possibly a minor improvement as the period nudges up a little and the wavelength draws out (in fact, this increasing period very well could compensate for the easing swells heights, and end up producing the same sized surf, if not slightly bigger).

But the other key factor for the weekend is the local wind outlook. At this stage Saturday looks like it’ll be mainly under the influence of a gusty S’ly thru’ SE airstream, however as the low pulls southwards into Sunday, winds should swing to more S’ly thru’ SW. We still need a couple of days to firm up the details before getting too excited, but on the balance it’s a very good outlook for the semi-exposed points of Northern NSW and SE Qld.

Wave heights will probably end up being biggest at some point Saturday, probably 6-8ft at exposed Northern NSW beaches, with smaller surf north of the border (say, peaking around 3-4ft across semi-exposed points, and 5-6ft at the open beaches). A slow easing trend is then possible through Sunday. Let’s check back on Friday to see how things have moved around. 

Longer term (Dec 15th onwards)

With somewhat skewy model guidance right now, it’s still too early to pin down specifics. But I am still confident that we’ll see another phase of groundswell from this broader system, originating from an easterly fetch developing very close to New Zealand’s West Coast over the weekend. At this stage there’s a good chance that either Tuesday or Wednesday will see this new energy but I’ll have to give it a few more days to firm up the specifics.

Otherwise, Monday should see plenty of good quality surf as wave heights really start to fall away from the weekend.

Elsewhere, a front is modelled to push through the southern Tasman Sea around Tuesday which also gives rise to a possible south swell Wednesday onwards for Northern NSW. But we’ll check back on Friday to see how likely this is. See you then!