Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Sizey mid period E swell from TC Alfred wind field continues Thurs/Fri though with nagging onshore winds
• Peak in swell Thurs
• Slow easing into the weekend with winds shifting E through NE
• Small E/NE swell next week with a light/mod onshore flow expected

Recap

Swells built from the SE-E/SE yesterday with better quality E/NE swell also ascendant in the mix though onshore SE winds made surf messy just about everywhere. Size reached 4-5ft by close of play and has continued in that range this morning, with more building size expected through the day likelty into the 6-8ft range. Unfortunately with a persistent SE flow which is expected to continue as a strong high maintains a firm ridge up the coast to a westwards moving TC Alfred which is currently approaching the SEQLD coast.

Plenty of size as swells from TC Alfred start to build but quality low due to onshore winds

This week (Mar5-7)

TC Alfred (981 hPa) is currently less than 300 nm (nautical miles) due E of Brisbane and moving  W at around 6kts towards the SEQLD Coast. There may be some wobbles in the track as it approaches the coast which may have a material effect on the crossing point goes but as far as surf size is concerned everything is pretty locked in. Massive surf from the Moreton Bay Islands across the Gold Coast and down through Northern NSW will continue until the cyclone crossing, with much smaller surf on the Sunshine Coast and into temperate NSW. It’s been an epic event with a gnarly exclamation point expected as Alfred makes landfall. 

In the short run there’s not a great deal of change expected for temperate NSW. Alfred reached the southern most point of it’s journey Tues morning but the extent of E’ly gales is still reaching as far south as Hunter latitudes. That will see plenty of vigorous E through E/NE swell through the forecast region- likely in the 6-8ft range with bigger 10ft sets possible at select NE facing locations. SE winds will be the problem, although they will be lighter south of Sydney, tending variable south of Jervis Bay if you want to make a play for cleaner surf. There will be less size as you head south of Jervis Bay though. 

Friday should be roughly similar with just a slight and slow trend down from Thurs. Still robust E’ly swells in excess of 6ft with a mod/fresh SE flow that is likely to blow from dawn to dusk. SE winds are likely to increase as the tropical cyclone makes landfall, even extending south of Jervis Bay. Again lots of swell about but quality will be mediocre at best.

This weekend (Mar 8-9)

As Alfred moves inland as a decaying system it will drag a moist E/NE-E flow across most of the Eastern seaboard, tending straight E to E/SE across the Sydney region. Expect low quality easing E’ly to E/NE’ly swells over the weekend.

Sat should see some 3-5ft surf early, tending to 3-4ft surf through the day.

Holding in that 3-4ft range Sun, a little smaller by close of play. 

Next week (Mar 10 onwards)

Not much on offer next week at this stage. High pressure in the Tasman with an onshore flow and small, workable E’ly swells in the 2 occ. 3ft range most of the week according to GFS outlook. 

EC is still suggesting a trough of low pressure developing E of Tas with a chance for a spike in S swell, possibly of good quality Tues/Wed. 

We’ll see how it looks Fri.

Seeya then.