The United States(!) of A
sypkan wrote:bottom line is you need a peace deal before you can have a peace keeping force
or that's normally how it goes...
I said yesterday it's probably better europe has a go at negotiating a deal than trump. I actually think both US parties are so fucken compromised re. russia and ukraine neither of em are capable of doing it
but that hinges on europe actually negotiating...
not seeing a lot of that, so far,looks more like dictating of the same old terms
no. 1 on the 'negotiating' table has to ukraine not joining NATO
can't see putin giving an inch otherwise, and fair enough from my perspective...
so...
'peace deal'
believe it when I see it..
Like it or hate it, Putin will set terms of any peace/ cease fire deal from what I can gather.
USA is out, and Europe will talk the talk but when the time comes to send their young men to fight and die and to cut pensions of their own citizens to fund the war, things may change.
the question is...
was the volod even gonna sign it anyway?
seems a last last minute NATO, dems, MIC, EU scramble didn't want it to go through because that would have put the don in the negotiating hot seat and they're all terrified what the don will offer / fall for...
not without cause
so all this blame don blame volod is likely just diversion chicken feed for the masses
I don’t think Europe needs to send troops to the front line at all. There’s plenty that they can / could / should do that would enable Ukraine to generate and maintain a stronger bargaining position.
Putin’s brinkmanship is reliant on Europe blinking. I don’t think he’ll go nuclear. There’s not many options for it. His position isn’t as strong as is being made out - sustaining occupation will be costly, a transition back from a wartime economy will be difficult to manage, and he’s squandered one of Russia’s great historical advantages - the ability to generate attritional advantage. For an attritional strategy to work (long term) you need to manage losses of men and material at a rate proportional to your numerical ‘advantage’ over the force that you’re opposing. That’s roughly 3:1 in Russia’s case. Maybe a little more.
But I’m not sure that they’re achieving an exchange rate this favourable in Ukraine.
‘Experts’ have been predicting the imminent collapse of Ukraine for 3 years.
Maybe closer to it in Kursk. Because the Ukrainians are a little more exposed. And that’s where they’re throwing the North Korean troops in.
It’s certainly not sustainable for either side in the long term. Hence why Putin is VERY keen to freeze the war on current lines. This is certainly not the war that Putin planned nor wanted.
Just a question for the Trump cock riders: if this war needs to end and both sides need to come to the table, where’s the pressure and coercion against Russia to do so? Is this another ‘amazing deal’ where Trump fucks away his leverage?
Seems like he’s only got any balls when he’s dealing with smaller countries.
etarip wrote:I don’t think Europe needs to send troops to the front line at all. There’s plenty that they can / could / should do that would enable Ukraine to generate and maintain a stronger bargaining position.
Putin’s brinkmanship is reliant on Europe blinking. I don’t think he’ll go nuclear. There’s not many options for it. His position isn’t as strong as is being made out - sustaining occupation will be costly, a transition back from a wartime economy will be difficult to manage, and he’s squandered one of Russia’s great historical advantages - the ability to generate attritional advantage. For an attritional strategy to work (long term) you need to manage losses of men and material at a rate proportional to your numerical ‘advantage’ over the force that you’re opposing. That’s roughly 3:1 in Russia’s case. Maybe a little more.
But I’m not sure that they’re achieving an exchange rate this favourable in Ukraine.‘Experts’ have been predicting the imminent collapse of Ukraine for 3 years.
Maybe closer to it in Kursk. Because the Ukrainians are a little more exposed. And that’s where they’re throwing the North Korean troops in.
It’s certainly not sustainable for either side in the long term. Hence why Putin is VERY keen to freeze the war on current lines. This is certainly not the war that Putin planned nor wanted.
Just a question for the Trump cock riders: if this war needs to end and both sides need to come to the table, where’s the pressure and coercion against Russia to do so? Is this another ‘amazing deal’ where Trump fucks away his leverage?
Seems like he’s only got any balls when he’s dealing with smaller countries.
Just want to clarify, I'm definitely no fan of the orange sociopath Trump.
But cannot see how Ukraine can win, as Russia will just keep meat grinding away and the Ukrainians from my understanding are running out of conscripts/ volunteers.
Seems like europe as were the seppos pre Trump happy to pay for the guns for young Ukrainians to die with.
I have no military background, so could be totally wrong.
Saying that some of the commentators I've been listening to have been saying pretty much that it would come to this for over a year.
And there we are.
My only hope is the killing stops, and all the Russians and Ukrainians in Bali can go home.
OK poor taste joke but kind of true.
The EU needs to get its head outta its ass and rethink this dumbass strategy of 'peace' through flexin’ military muscle and tryna whoop Russia’s ass in a war. Not gunna happen.
The real question is: When you’re 'standing with' and capin’ for Ukraine, what the hell are you even defendin’ and fightin’ for?
It ain’t freedom, democracy, free speech, capitalism, Christianity, or the good ol’ nation-state independence - the stuff that’s the backbone of the West.
Nah, it’s that EU socialist dictator shit, unelected WEF globalist overlords runnin’ the show, fuckin’ up nation-state sovereignty, censorship on lock, wild-ass uncontrolled mass migration, the Islamification mess, the most corrupt shit hole of the planet.
Go peep at what Tulsi Gabbard’s sayin’. She’s on point, dudes. The EU? Straight up clueless.
'Peace through war'... How damn stupid can these EU war-hawk clowns get? But hey...FAFO.
Arse, Green Room, in Australia it's arse.
Does anyone actually believe that Russians have the power and might to attack other countries in Europe? Especially as a lot of them are in NATO? Would Russia really wage a war against NATO?
We are repeatedly told that the answer is yes. Zelensky, politicians of all colours keep repeating this like some sort of mantra. But I'm not buying it. Not because I trust Putin. It's because I think that A) He's got no money B) He's got no people C) He's got no skill
What do others think?
Thanks for that well thought out contribution greenie.
The EU doesn’t need to invade or ‘whoop Russia’s “ass”’. No one does. It just needs to make the invasion of a neighbouring state unsustainably expensive. And allow Ukraine to ratchet up the exchange ratio in critical areas - which is something that Biden should have done years ago.
As soon as Russia’s initial gambit failed I think the West should have doubled down on support for Ukraine. It should never have come to this.
flollo wrote:Does anyone actually believe that Russians have the power and might to attack other countries in Europe? Especially as a lot of them are in NATO? Would Russia really wage a war against NATO?
We are repeatedly told that the answer is yes. Zelensky, politicians of all colours keep repeating this like some sort of mantra. But I'm not buying it. Not because I trust Putin. It's because I think that A) He's got no money B) He's got no people C) He's got no skill
What do others think?
In short no.
And I don't think they the Russians want to.
People keep going on about Putin, but there are other forces in Russia who he answers to etc.
We've been told on the one hand that Russia want to overtake Europe and Ukraine is the first step, then in the next breath Russia are weak, poorly trained and losing the war and can hardly hold eastern Ukraine.
Cannot be both.
I still believe although many disagree that this is about having a neutral Ukraine, ie non NATO member. It's a sphere of influence thing going back decades.
https://m.
&pp=ygUYbmF0byBleHBhbnNpb24gZ29yYmFjaG92 And fresh from the press, the latest Emerson College poll shows Trump still has a 48% approval rating, unchanged from Feb. Not surprisingly, most of Republicans approve Trump's foregoing policy while Democrats hate it. Look at this: 'Seventy-seven percent of Republicans rate his handling as excellent or good'. There's some other good stats in here. One that worries me: '47% of Republicans support a US withdrawal from NATO'.
Flollo - I think that you’re right, in the short term. Russia has never fought and won a European war without being allied with one of the major European countries.
But perhaps after a period of reset, incorporation of occupied territories into Russia, exploitation of peoples and industry this might change. I trust the judgement and the assessment of the Nordics and Baltics on this. Something MUST have shifted for Sweden and Finland to change their post-WW2 posture. Don’t you think?
But meanwhile, the subversion, sabotage and subterfuge will continue setting the scene for the next act.
This podcast is a good listen.
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/intelligence-matters-the-relaunch/...
basesix wrote:started way before jimmy vance butted in.. (what fucking idiots the people are that think msm is only showing a divisive bit.. apart from the fact it is 'the fight', so of course that's what they show, the half-hour lead up makes volod look exhausted from a war and donald look like an absolutely ridiculous cunt, that does very well for his age).
.. jim vance just noticed Volod making a few faces while the vain cockhead he was 'talking with' told the world biden's a cunt, obama's a cunt, europe's a cunt, anyone thinking trump's not the best is a cunt, and anyone who thinks anything bad could ever happen when trump is around is a cunt, anyone who doesn't suck up the donald arse is a cunt.. and no-one is to blame in this war.. and Volod needs to stop hating on the invader.
I reckon volod did well after his long flights and months of hell, not to fall off his chair laughing and crying at how retarded and off the planet the pompous orange fuckstick is.
I think the reason Zelenskyy didn’t back down and grovel to the two little bullies, was that he thought it was more important to portray Putin as the bad guy that he is , rather than bow down to Trumps desired image of Putin the hero good guy .
This may have been more important to Zelenskyy and the whole crisis than the mineral deal .
andy-mac wrote:etarip wrote:I don’t think Europe needs to send troops to the front line at all. There’s plenty that they can / could / should do that would enable Ukraine to generate and maintain a stronger bargaining position.
Putin’s brinkmanship is reliant on Europe blinking. I don’t think he’ll go nuclear. There’s not many options for it. His position isn’t as strong as is being made out - sustaining occupation will be costly, a transition back from a wartime economy will be difficult to manage, and he’s squandered one of Russia’s great historical advantages - the ability to generate attritional advantage. For an attritional strategy to work (long term) you need to manage losses of men and material at a rate proportional to your numerical ‘advantage’ over the force that you’re opposing. That’s roughly 3:1 in Russia’s case. Maybe a little more.
But I’m not sure that they’re achieving an exchange rate this favourable in Ukraine.‘Experts’ have been predicting the imminent collapse of Ukraine for 3 years.
Maybe closer to it in Kursk. Because the Ukrainians are a little more exposed. And that’s where they’re throwing the North Korean troops in.
It’s certainly not sustainable for either side in the long term. Hence why Putin is VERY keen to freeze the war on current lines. This is certainly not the war that Putin planned nor wanted.
Just a question for the Trump cock riders: if this war needs to end and both sides need to come to the table, where’s the pressure and coercion against Russia to do so? Is this another ‘amazing deal’ where Trump fucks away his leverage?
Seems like he’s only got any balls when he’s dealing with smaller countries.
Just want to clarify, I'm definitely no fan of the orange sociopath Trump.
But cannot see how Ukraine can win, as Russia will just keep meat grinding away and the Ukrainians from my understanding are running out of conscripts/ volunteers.
Seems like europe as were the seppos pre Trump happy to pay for the guns for young Ukrainians to die with.
I have no military background, so could be totally wrong.
Saying that some of the commentators I've been listening to have been saying pretty much that it would come to this for over a year.
And there we are.My only hope is the killing stops, and all the Russians and Ukrainians in Bali can go home.
OK poor taste joke but kind of true.
The conscription age in Ukraine is 25, hardly young like other nations.
When the invasion came, all males from 18-60 were prevented from leaving Ukraine but a million Russians left Russia who were of military service age.So who is short on numbers when North Koreans have to be bought to the war?
Ukes are fighting for their future, they wont give up.
Tell us how Russia can win?
https://m.
&pp=ygUSbmF0byBleHBhbnNpb24gbWFw quadzilla wrote:andy-mac wrote:etarip wrote:I don’t think Europe needs to send troops to the front line at all. There’s plenty that they can / could / should do that would enable Ukraine to generate and maintain a stronger bargaining position.
Putin’s brinkmanship is reliant on Europe blinking. I don’t think he’ll go nuclear. There’s not many options for it. His position isn’t as strong as is being made out - sustaining occupation will be costly, a transition back from a wartime economy will be difficult to manage, and he’s squandered one of Russia’s great historical advantages - the ability to generate attritional advantage. For an attritional strategy to work (long term) you need to manage losses of men and material at a rate proportional to your numerical ‘advantage’ over the force that you’re opposing. That’s roughly 3:1 in Russia’s case. Maybe a little more.
But I’m not sure that they’re achieving an exchange rate this favourable in Ukraine.‘Experts’ have been predicting the imminent collapse of Ukraine for 3 years.
Maybe closer to it in Kursk. Because the Ukrainians are a little more exposed. And that’s where they’re throwing the North Korean troops in.
It’s certainly not sustainable for either side in the long term. Hence why Putin is VERY keen to freeze the war on current lines. This is certainly not the war that Putin planned nor wanted.
Just a question for the Trump cock riders: if this war needs to end and both sides need to come to the table, where’s the pressure and coercion against Russia to do so? Is this another ‘amazing deal’ where Trump fucks away his leverage?
Seems like he’s only got any balls when he’s dealing with smaller countries.
Just want to clarify, I'm definitely no fan of the orange sociopath Trump.
But cannot see how Ukraine can win, as Russia will just keep meat grinding away and the Ukrainians from my understanding are running out of conscripts/ volunteers.
Seems like europe as were the seppos pre Trump happy to pay for the guns for young Ukrainians to die with.
I have no military background, so could be totally wrong.
Saying that some of the commentators I've been listening to have been saying pretty much that it would come to this for over a year.
And there we are.My only hope is the killing stops, and all the Russians and Ukrainians in Bali can go home.
OK poor taste joke but kind of true.The conscription age in Ukraine is 25, hardly young like other nations.
When the invasion came, all males from 18-60 were prevented from leaving Ukraine but a million Russians left Russia who were of military service age.So who is short on numbers when North Koreans have to be bought to the war?
Ukes are fighting for their future, they wont give up.
Tell us how Russia can win?
I'm not taking sides or barracking for Russia.
But as it looks now, they have won.
Without US support I reckon the wheels will fall off and they will negotiate a deal that Russia wants.
But hey could be wrong.
Reckon eastern Ukraine will stay with Russia and the rest will make deal to stay neutral and no joining of NATO.
But who knows.... Trump may change his mind tomorrow and send in troops.
It’s just such a paternalistic view @a-m.
Surely countries have a right to self-determination! Why not countries that are contiguous to Russia?
NATO membership was not even on the table in 2014, was an illusion for Ukraine before the 2022 invasion and was repeatedly hosed down as an option by Germany; the US and others since the invasion. Noting that admission to NATO requires UNANIMOUS agreement from all existing member states, how is this casus belli by reasonable standard?
Edit: ref your last point - both sides have certainly lost. What were Russian’s war aims, and have they achieved them?
And, the world is a strange place. The ball is in the Ukrainian court. While they want peace, I’m not sure that they want them on the terms that will be presented to them. Which means that there won’t be peace, or there will be another war. Russia isn’t in a position where it can compel Ukraine. It hasn’t even fully occupied any of the oblasts that it has already added to its constitution.
What’s Russias manpower situation like?
(loving your angle and where you are coming from @andy-mac, particularly as it stems from your studies and long held views. because you are trusted and respected and engage well like @flollo and @etarip, your posts are making for more robust conversation and greater veracity in others' posts).
"Surely, countries have a right to self-determination! Why not countries that are contiguous to Russia?"
In a perfect world I am 100% in
agreement.
But again major powers will throw their powers around in their perceived sphere of influence.
Take the case of US involvement in central and Latin America over the years.
Or for that matter in the Middle East.
Sounds a case of the US saying do as I say, not as I do.
basesix wrote:(loving your angle and where you are coming from @andy-mac, particularly as it stems from your studies and long held views. because you are trusted and respected and engage well like @flollo and @etarip, your posts are making for more robust conversation and greater veracity in others' posts).
Cheers Base.
I do like to hear and consider the different points of view, and I'm first to admit I could be wrong in many cases, and this has been pointed out in the past.
Reality is we are all only making comments from our past experiences and knowledge we have picked up over the years.
We all have incomplete knowledge and individual biases.
Anyway missus is telling me to get off the phone. Ha
"Tell us how Russia can win?"
neither side can 'win', ...that's the whole problem...
russia clearly won't submit, even if ukraine is fully kitted out and gains ground, russia wont give up their strongholds...
we're talking a five year turnaround here, on top of an already 3 year war, you got an appetite for that?
you think ukraine troop supplies (bodies) will last that long?
I cannot imagine china leaving them short if they're truly struggling kit wise, and russia has more shadow allies than just china
maybe china is smart enough to reserve their kit for when it matters for themselves... they kinda give that impression...
but at the end of the day, the battle is for dominance, battle of ideas, battle of the systems...
plus 100's of years of resentment
I just cannot see russia ceding anything at this point
I avoid calling putin a mad man - I don't think he is... but there's clearly some off the charts righteous dogged determination there... along with many russians...
chinese too
they're simply wired differently
can't see em giving up any time soon...
etarip wrote:It’s just such a paternalistic view @a-m.
Surely countries have a right to self-determination! Why not countries that are contiguous to Russia?
NATO membership was not even on the table in 2014, was an illusion for Ukraine before the 2022 invasion and was repeatedly hosed down as an option by Germany; the US and others since the invasion. Noting that admission to NATO requires UNANIMOUS agreement from all existing member states, how is this casus belli by reasonable standard?
Edit: ref your last point - both sides have certainly lost. What were Russian’s war aims, and have they achieved them?
And, the world is a strange place. The ball is in the Ukrainian court. While they want peace, I’m not sure that they want them on the terms that will be presented to them. Which means that there won’t be peace, or there will be another war. Russia isn’t in a position where it can compel Ukraine. It hasn’t even fully occupied any of the oblasts that it has already added to its constitution.What’s Russias manpower situation like?
Whats Russian manpower like?....PISS POOR, I've seen one report that said 8 days is the average time a new( 2 week trained) recruit lasts.
Daily losses ( Ukranian figures) range from 1100 to 2100. Over 40,000 pm for a while now..Zelensky said at one point last year that its a 1_7 ratio that Ukes are losing.
But on the equipment side, the Russians have lost 2/3rds of their tanks,artillery,apv(their main fighting stuff.)A third of the Black Sea navy have been sunk.By a country without a navy.
The Russians have lost so many vehicles that they are using Donkeys( like Gallipoli) for some transportation.Assaulting the front with E scooters and golf buggies in some places.
Peace take after peace take.
rio?
sypkan wrote:"Tell us how Russia can win?"
neither side can 'win', ...that's the whole problem...
russia clearly won't submit, even if ukraine is fully kitted out and gains ground, russia wont give up their strongholds...
we're talking a five year turnaround here, on top of an already 3 year war, you got an appetite for that?
you think ukraine troop supplies (bodies) will last that long?
I cannot imagine china leaving them short if they're truly struggling kit wise, and russia has more shadow allies than just china
maybe china is smart enough to reserve their kit for when it matters for themselves... they kinda give that impression...
but at the end of the day, the battle is for dominance, battle of ideas, battle of the systems...
plus 100's of years of resentment
I just cannot see russia ceding anything at this point
I avoid calling putin a mad man - I don't think he is... but there's clearly some off the charts righteous dogged determination there... along with many russians...
chinese too
they're simply wired differently
can't see em giving up any time soon...
I agree on it being a long conflict but theres still enough Ukes to win IF they are given the right support. They want the Russians out of THEIR countryThey have regained over quarter of the territory that the Russians took as well as making a bridgehead in Kursk.They have depleted the equipment of the Russians severely and systematically taking out the command centres,ammo dumps fuel supplies and oil refineries.
At one stage, artillery exchanges were 10:1 from the Russian side.its now down to 2:1...Ukraine is kicking arse in the drone warfare.
The Russian economy is in chaos.
EU announces 800Bn Euro defence plan, including 150Bn toward Ukraine in equipment generation:
https://defence-blog.com/eu-unveils-800-billion-defense-plan/
velocityjohnno wrote:EU announces 800Bn Euro defence plan, including 150Bn toward Ukraine in equipment generation:
https://defence-blog.com/eu-unveils-800-billion-defense-plan/
GREAT NEWS!
Good news but it's staggered over 4 years. And it will be financed largely through deficit. They will be lifting some deficit restriction that EU has which good to see. It's still not enough though. The US spends that much (and more) every single year. And has been for a long time.
With that being said, Ursula is on fire lately! They're even relaxing vehicle emission standards, sending car maker shares soaring.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eet/news/von-der-leyen-proposes-more-re...
That’s very positive for Ukraine. It will also be important to demonstrate to Putin that Ukraine is not being left unsupported. Pressure on Putin to negotiate is important. And the only pressure that Donny is putting on Putin is cupping his balls while he takes care of business.
And I’m always dubious about the $$ value of most of the equipment sent to Ukraine. Majority was mothballed and overvalued. And a lot of it just wasn’t sent. It was funded but not delivered.
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank