Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri March 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small background swell Sat with E/SE tending S/SW winds
• Mod-large S/SW groundswell building Sun, easing slowly Mon
• Gusty E/SE tending E/NE-E winds, then variable ahead of late sea breezes
• Easing swell Mon with moderate E/NE tending NW winds
• Moderate SW pulse Tues PM/ holding Wed AM with ESE-SE winds
• SE winds most of next week with another pulse Fri

Recap

Deteriorating conditions as both size and quality diminished with today seeing onshore winds and 3-5ft surf in the SW corner, smaller 1-2ft in Manrudah and 1-1.5ft in Perth, offering up just surfable waves for the very keen.

This weekend and next week (Mar 18 - 24)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Sat offers clean conditions early with ESE-SE winds as a high pressure system ridges in under the state. S’ly seabreezes should be stiff and early so make the most of the morning offshore wind. Small mix of mid period swells will offer up some 3ft options between the Capes with tiny waves in Mandurah/Perth.

Much more juice expected Sun with improving winds to boot. Expect a stronger offshore signal to last well into the day before tending SSE in the a’noon. Strong SSW-SW swell from a front which tracked past Heard Island generating a wind swathe of seas in excess of 20ft as it passed under the state today will build in mid morning in the SW, a bit later in Perth/Mandurah. Expect sets to 5-6ft (8ft sets likely on the magnets), 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth.

Into next week and we’ll see weaker winds Monday out of the E/NE as the swell starts easing from a similar size in Perth and Mandurah, more 4-6ft in the South West. An approaching trough sees lighter S’lies during the a’noon.

Winds now don’t look too bad Tues as the trough hovers inland with early ESE winds tending to light S’lies.

A series of small/moderate swells are expected next week under a slightly suppressed storm track with zonal fetches occupying the area 50-60S and flaring up as they pass Heard Island before being shunted SE as they approach the state (see below). With slow moving high pressure tracking just under the state we should see mostly favourable winds through the morning E-ESE, tending to SSE-S winds in the a’noon.

The first pulse in the series should fill in Tues PM in the 3-5ft range in the SW, smaller 2ft in Mandurah, 1-1.5ft in Perth and hold into Wed morning before easing with favourable morning winds.

Size lingers Thurs at smaller 3-4ft in the SW with SE winds before another small kick in SW swell to 3-5ft between the Capes Fri smaller 1-2ft in Mandurah, 1-1.5ft in Perth. Winds may tend more E/NE-NE north of Mandurah Fri before an approaching trough but we’ll dial that in on Mon.

Small surf then looks likely next weekend with similar winds.

Longer term and there is signs the Indian ocean comes to life with a strong disturbance in the Central Indian Ocean late next week with large high pressure squeeze behind it. We’ll see how that shapes up but it signals a stronger SW swell early week 27/3.

That's a long way away and a few things still have to go right before it becomes a swell source - but we’ll keep tabs on it and see how it’s shaping up on Mon morning.

Have a great weekend and seeya then!