Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 25th July)

Best Days: Both regions tomorrow, early Friday, novelty spots Sunday afternoon, Monday

Recap

A strong large kick in swell to 8ft+ yesterday across the South West with 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets across Mandurah, while Perth only reported 1-1.5ft waves, a bit stronger into the afternoon.

Conditions were average in the South West, while to the north better offshore tending variable winds were seen.

Today the swell was smaller and back from 2ft around Mandurah and Perth, while Margs was cleaner and a good 5-6ft and winds have remained favourable into this afternoon.

This week and weekend (Jul 27 - 31)

Smaller surf is due into tomorrow, but a reinforcing SW groundswell should keep sets around 4-5ft+ most of the day, tiny to the north and around 1-1.5ft.

Conditions should be good most of the day with an E/NE tending N'ly breeze, most likely variable.

Our new SW groundswell for Friday morning is still on track with satellite observations confirming a good fetch of pre-frontal and post-frontal W'ly severe-gales in the Heard Island region.

This swell should come in at a good 6ft to occasionally 8ft across Margs, with 2ft sets in Perth, but increasing N/NE tending strong N/NW winds look to spoil the party, so get in early.

These strengthening N/NW winds will be linked to the first in a series of strong polar frontal systems projecting up and towards us over the coming period.

This storm activity and a resultant XXL swell event will be linked to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough developing just west of us.

This will then move across us Saturday, with a secondary weaker node developing on its tail, moving across us Tuesday night/Wednesday.

Currently a strong polar front has already developed west of Heard Island, with a fetch of severe-gale SW winds being projected north-east through our western swell window.

This front will then weaken temporarily while pushing east and then re-strengthening right off our doorstep Friday, projecting an additional fetch of W/SW gales towards us.

With this a large mid-period W/SW swell is due Saturday, building to 8-10ft through the day across the South West and 2-3ft later in Perth. Conditions will be poor though with fresh W/SW tending W/NW winds (stronger in the South West).

The groundswell proper from the early stages of this front is due Sunday morning, but this will be overridden by a larger XXL swell developing through the day.

This will be produced by a much stronger frontal system moving over the active sea state generated before it, projecting a fetch of severe-gale to possibly storm-force W/SW winds right into us, crossing the coast Sunday in a weakened form

The swell should build very strongly Sunday to a stormy 15-20ft in the South West and 4-5ft in Perth but with gale-force W/NW tending strong W/SW winds.

Into next week, a reinforcing XL SW groundswell is due Monday more in the 12-15ft range across the South West and 3-5ft in Perth with improving S/SW tending S/SE winds (possibly E/SE around Perth through the morning). We'll have to have another look at this Friday though.

Beyond this the second node will see a very broad and intense polar low firing up in the Heard Island region before pushing northwards into us, generating another large groundswell Thursday'ish but again, we'll review this Friday.