Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday August 21st)

Best Days: Friday, Saturday morning, Monday Surf Coast, Wednesday onwards Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent W/SW groundswell tomorrow with gusty NW winds
• Moderate + sized pulse of W/SW swell Fri AM, easing later and through the weekend
• Mod-fresh N/NW tending N/NE winds across selected spots to the east into the PM
• Easing swell Sat with strong N tending weaker N/NW-NW winds
• Smaller Sun with strengthening N tending N/NW winds
• Moderate sized W/SW swell Mon with strong NW winds
• Larger surf due mid-late next week

Recap

The exposed beaches were the pick yesterday with a drop in swell from Monday under offshore winds and with 2-3ft sets while the Surf Coast was tiny and to 1-1.5ft.

This morning the swell is similar in size but west winds are creating poor conditions east of Melbourne with nothing of size to the west.

This week and weekend (Aug 22 - 25)

Later today but more so tomorrow our secondary pulse of very long-range W/SW groundswell is due, generated by a distant storm that developed to the south-east of South Africa last week.

The Surf Coast isn’t expected to really get above 1-2ft with more size to the east but with average, gusty NW winds.

Of greater importance is the pulse of W/SW swell for Friday morning, with a strong, tight mid-latitude low that’s currently under Western Australia, heading east towards us.

A small fetch of gale to severe-gale W’ly winds should generate a short-lived but good spike of swell for Friday morning to the 3-5ft range across the Surf Coast magnets with 6ft to possibly 8ft sets across the magnets to the east in the morning, easing through the day.

Local winds look to be favourable for both coasts with a N/NW offshore tending N/NE into the afternoon in selected spots to the east, likely holding from the N/NW across Phillip Island.

Saturday will then be smaller along with strong N tending N/NW-NW winds, likely easing from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

Looking at Sunday and the models are showing a small spike of mid-period W’ly swell for the afternoon but the source will be from up in the Bight and likely too far north of our swell window to generate any decent size.

The Surf Coast might see 1-2ft sets but lower your expectations with more size to the east more to 3ft under strengthening N tending N/NW winds.

Looking at next week and beyond and we should see the storm activity that’s been focussed in the Indian Ocean moving east and across the country bringing with it an increase in wind and swell activity from Monday but more so mid-late week.

An initial zonal front should generate a moderate sized spike of swell for Monday followed by further better surf from Wednesday onwards. More on this Friday.