Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday May 15th)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Friday morning, Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-large sized SW groundswell for tomorrow with N/NW tending variable winds (N/NE to the east in select locations through the AM)
• Easing swell Fri AM with freshening W/NW tending strong SW winds early PM
• Large SW groundswell Sat AM but with mod-fresh S/SE winds, abating through the day
• Easing swell Sun with gusty W/NW winds, shifting SW into the PM
• Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell Mon with S/SW winds (possibly light W/SW early)
• Easing swell into Tue, with a moderate + S/SW groundswell for the PM and Wed AM but with strong S winds

Recap

A weak mix of W/SW swells came in yesterday to 2ft+ with OK conditions for the keen on the Surf Coast, better today with a touch more strength to the swell. The magnets are 2-3ft while the beaches to the east are OK as well and to 4ft.

This week and next (Apr 16 - 24)

The weak energy currently breaking on the coast will be replaced by much stronger and bigger pulses of swell over the coming days thanks to an active Southern Ocean storm track under the country.

The first of these formed under the country yesterday and we’re seeing a great fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds followed by similar strength W/SW winds, generating a moderate-large sized pulse of SW groundswell for tomorrow, pulsing to 4-5ft+ across the Surf Coast (6ft'ers magnets) and 6ft+ to the east through the day, easing temporarily into Friday morning as we fall in between swells.

Right on the back of this initial frontal system will be a stronger polar low through today and tomorrow, with fetches of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds due to be generated through our south-western swell window.

This should generate a stronger pulse of groundswell for late Friday but more so Saturday morning coming in at 6ft across the Surf Coast and 8ft on the sets to the east. Unfortunately winds for this swell have taken a turn for the worse thanks to a trailing front pushing up from the south, into us Friday evening.

But coming back to tomorrow and conditions should be great with a light N/NW offshore tending variable breeze, with winds even due to tend N/NE in regions to the east during the morning.

Friday will then see freshening W/NW winds ahead of a strong SW change early afternoon as the trailing front pushes up and into us, with moderate to fresh but easing S/SE winds due into Saturday.

Sunday will be cleaner as winds quickly shift back to a gusty W/NW’ly ahead of the next swell generating system, that being a fairly unfavourably aligned by strong front swinging under a high in the Bight, then pushing up across us into the afternoon, swinging winds to the SW. 

The swell off this system looks to be more in the 3-4ft range on the Surf Coast Monday, 6ft to the east but with fresh S/SW winds. There’s an outside chance for lighter W/SW winds at dawn on the Surf Coast but I wouldn’t count on it.

Unfortunately Tuesday will see strong S’ly winds as the swell eases thanks to a high moving in from the west behind all the activity.

The high doesn’t look to continue moving east though, with it stalling west of us resulting in unfavourable winds from the southern quadrant through the rest of the week.

By next weekend we should see it start mobilising, shifting winds more north-east but we’ll confirm this on Friday.

Swell wise a strong polar low looks to generate a moderate + sized pulse of S/SW groundswell for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning next week, but with the poor winds. Bugger.