Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 31st August)

Best Days: Today (afternoon exposed beaches), tomorrow morning all locations, Monday morning east of Melbourne, Tuesday morning east of Melbourne

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent mid-period SW swell for late today, peaking Thu AM, and easing
• Light N winds east of Melbourne tomorrow AM and N/NW-NW to the west ahead of a mid-late afternoon S/SW change
• Moderate sized + SW swell Fri with fresh S/SW winds
• Slowly easing surf Sat/Sun with mod-fresh SW-S winds on Sat and moderate S winds Sun
• Small-moderate sized S/SW swell building Mon PM with light S-SE winds, fresher into the PM
• Easing S/SW swell Tue with fresh E tending SE winds, smaller Wed with NE winds

Recap

Our new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell didn't really show toowell later Monday on the Surf Coast with infrequent 2-3ft sets while the exposed beaches to the east got solid and to 4-6ft.

Yesterday morning provided the peak in energy with infrequent 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 6ft to the east and conditions were cleanest west of Melbourne ahead of a strong SW change early afternoon.

Today we've got a bit less size but cleaner conditions with winds quickly shifting back offshore along with 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft waves to the east. Conditions should improve for locations to the east after lunch with a lighter N/NW tending N/NE breeze due. Swell wise some new mid-period SW swell may be seen later in the day, boosting wave heights a touch but more on this below.

This week and next (Sep 1 - 9)

Make the most of today's clean conditions and a window of favourable winds tomorrow morning, as once a trough brings a S/SW change tomorrow afternoon, winds look to be average and onshore until early next week.

The reason for the coming persistent southerly breezes will be a stationary polar frontal progression developing to the south-southeast of Tasmania over the coming days, preventing a strong high pressure sitting to our west from moving in following tomorrow's change.

A light morning N'ly breeze is due east of Melbourne tomorrow morning, N/NW-NW to the west, giving into fresh S/SW change mid-late afternoon which will then leave fresh S/SW winds into Friday. Similar moderate to fresh SW tending S/SW winds are expected on Saturday with only a slight chance for an early W'ly on the Surf Coast, moderate S'ly through Sunday.

Looking at the coming swells, and a new mid-period pulse of SW swell due later today followed by a stronger pulse Friday are on track.

The first was generated by a weakening polar front moving in from the Heard Island region with fetches of strong to gale-force W'ly winds generated in our medium-range swell window.

It'll be inconsistent with sets to 3ft+ due across the Surf Coast magnets tomorrow morning, 4-5ft+ to the east, easing a touch through the day.

Friday's swell has and is still being generated by a similar though more prolonged fetch and polar front moving in from the west. This front has pushed up more towards the country and is now passing south of the Bight today, with stronger 4-5ft sets due on the Surf Coast magnets, 6ft+ to the east but with those average winds.

We'll see the swell starting to ease into Saturday, smaller Sunday and with bumpy options for the keen across both coasts. Sunday looks to be back to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

As we move into next week, winds should start to improve but the models diverge a little regarding the positioning and deepening of a surface trough in the region. Lighter S'ly winds are due on the Surf Coast Monday morning, likely variable to the east while Tuesday looks to see fresher E tending SE winds as the trough deepens.

Swell wise, the polar frontal progression (south of Tasmania) looks to sit a little further east than forecast on Monday, with swell from this source being a little tricky. We should see some fun mid-period S'ly energy impacting the Surf Coast through Monday, easing Tuesday while not being too ideal for the Mornington Peninsula.

3ft+ sets are likely into Monday afternoon on the Surf Coast, 4ft to the east but with S/SE sea breezes, easing Tuesday from 2-3ft and 3-4ft respectively and best to the east. Wednesday should become cleaner on the beaches but the surf will be small and fading.

Longer term there's some inconsistent, long-range W/SW swell due later week with tricky winds, but more on this Friday.