Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 6th April)

Best Days: Beaches Saturday morning, Sunday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing W/SW swell with a new SE windswell tomorrow, both easing further Fri
• Strong E/SE tending SE winds tomorrow, fresh E/SE tending lighter E/NE through the day Friday east of Melbourne, tending light SE on the Surf Coast
• Inconsistent, mid-period W/SW swell for Sat and Sun with light NE tending N/NE winds Sat ahead of E/SE sea breezes, fresh N tending variable Sun (N/NW on the Surf Coast)
• Moderate sized spike in S/SW groundswell Mon PM with light SW-SE winds, fresh S/SE into the PM
• Small, fading S/SW swell with Tue with light S winds, freshening
• Moderate sized, mid-period SW swell Wed with fresh S/SE winds

Recap

Mostly tiny, clean waves across the Surf Coast yesterday morning, with 2-3ft sets to the east, bumpy but workable for the keen.

Today there's a touch more swell with an inconsistent, mid-period W/SW swell in the water and conditions are OK on the beaches east of Melbourne with waves to 3ft, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and bumpier.

This week and weekend (Apr 7 – 10)

The end of the week looks poor for surfing as we see a deepening inland surface trough to our north-east squeezes the northern flank of a high sliding slowly under us.

This will bring strong E/SE tending SE winds through tomorrow with easing levels of small, inconsistent W/SW swell and some developing, localised SE windswell on the Surf Coast.

2-3ft waves are due across both regions, junky on the Surf Coast and choppy to the east, easing from a similar size Friday morning as winds slowly ease during the morning. A fresh E/SE breeze is due early, weakening and possibly tending E/NE east of Melbourne late morning and early afternoon ahead of sea breezes. On the Surf Coast winds look to ease and tend light SE for a period through the day but the surf will remain poor.

Into the weekend, our more favourable winds and fun, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell is still on track, with a healthy though distant frontal progression taking place south-west of Western Australia.

The swell is due to fill in Saturday and come in at generally 2ft across most breaks on the Surf Coast but with 3ft sets on the magnets (inconsistent) with 3-4ft waves to the east and the odd 5ft bomb.

An approaching trough will push the high further east on the weekend, swinging winds to the NE and then N/NE through Saturday morning ahead of E/SE sea breezes, with Sunday seeing fresh N'ly winds (tending N/NW on the Surf Coast), and variable into the afternoon,

Size wise the swell will be easing slowly from a similar size to Saturday, with a wait for the best sets.

Now, as touched on in Monday's update, the trough moving in from the west is due to deepen rapidly while tracking south-east through our swell window on Saturday evening, with a very late and brief fetch of gale-force W/SW winds due to be generated in our southern swell window.

This will produce a flukey and very short-lived spike of S/SW groundswell for Monday, likely building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon and 4-6ft to the east. Check back Friday for confirmation as any earlier or later development of the low will change the forecast considerably.

Winds are dicey with an onshore flow due in the wake of the trough moving through during the morning but light SW tending SE winds are likely, freshening from the S/SE as the swell builds. Light variable S'ly winds look to develop in the wake of the trough Tuesday morning as the swell fades rapidly from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east.

Looking at the rest of the week at a macro scale and it looks like another trough moving in from the Bight will bring a S/SE change through Tuesday evening and Wednesday, followed by a high, maintaining SE winds into the end of the week.

Swell wise a moderate sized, mid-period SW swell is due Wednesday, with a follow up swell Friday, generated by healthy but not overly strong polar frontal systems.

At this stage we're looking at surf to 3ft on Wednesday with Friday's possibly being a little better but we'll have a closer look at this in the coming updates.