Fun weekend, cold, windy and large next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 31st July)
Best Days: Today, Saturday, Sunday, Monday protected spots, similar Tuesday
Recap
An increase in new W/SW swell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast yesterday morning with clean conditions and weak afternoon sea breezes, average to the east though improving a little into the afternoon.
This morning all locations are much cleaner and fun with sets to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds should remain favourable all day as the swell eases a touch.
This weekend and next week (Aug 1 - 7)
A continuation of fun sized W/SW groundswell is due over the weekend, with freshening winds tomorrow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude front. Tomorrow's swell which will fill in through the day (and could be possibly a touch undersized at dawn), was generated by a good pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales moving in behind all the activity before it this week.
The Surf Coast should continue around the 3ft range on the sets, 4-5ft to the east, if not for the possible bigger bomb on either coast at times through the day.
Winds will be fresh from the N'th, though tending N/NW on the Surf Coast and N/NE at times to the east if we're lucky.
Sunday looks similar in size and a morning N/NW breeze is due to swing NW through the afternoon.
Later in the day a better pulse of new W/SW groundswell may be seen, but Monday is a better chance for this, with it being generated by a strong polar front that's currently projecting up towards the Bight. This should produce a good, moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Monday to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east, and wind wise it looks like we have some convergence in the model guidance.
Winds look moderate to fresh from the W/NW most of the day as a vigorous polar front projects up and towards us through Sunday and Monday.
This will be as a mid-latitude low forms over Western Australia and a cut-off low from the polar front forms across Tassie Monday evening.
A large S/SW groundswell is expected off the polar source Tuesday but the timing of a strong onshore SW change and large shot of cold air is still up for grabs. We're likely to see a dawn W/NW, though we'll have to check Monday on how long it'll last.
Size wise we're looking at surf to 6ft+ on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east, easing Wednesday with a mix of windswell in the mix from the back side of the low. Winds look less than ideal though and strong from the SW.
The outlook beyond the middle of next week is still uncertain as the models diverge regarding what the low across us and also Western Australia will do, so check back here on Monday for the latest. What we can be guaranteed is a very cold and windy week of weather. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Winter, about time!
I'll be driving from Wyndham to Winki tomorrow morning if anyone needs a lift? Conditions look perfect! Must supply your own petrol money
You're using the correct bait for these waters but your cast was a bit off the mark...
No........tomorrow you'll be driving from Wyndham to Tarneit to purchase 1 gram of ice.
Hmmm. With the rules that Danny boy has laid out with guidance from the dr evil finger quotation marks “data”, tubbabird can do what he needs to do BUT must not barbeque at a mates joint but rather host one at any pub or cafe.
Ohhhh Greater Geelong, you don’t what it’s like for us Metropolitan Melbournians.
Glad that's clear. Just wash hands after handling the ice.
edit GG from 59 to 74 cases today I think, they'll know soon enough
and: you can't have a BBQ at home but can have BBQ with mates at a cafe or pub, but can't dine in if in Melb, but if in regions can, but must wear a mask standing, but don't need to wear a mask eating. Sorted. Maybe?
The wyndham would be the second most likely place to pick up corona after the RACV in Torquay. I hope they employ good cleaners bahah
Finmbob. Figured it was you dealing with the Roosters at Penalty Bay. From afar I thought the Rooster was actually providing patties for the Hamburgers. Meanwhile I was at the war down at Fort Mont. Almost won the battle but the soldiers couldn’t fit in the trench and we we’re overwhelmed. Early knock on a Friday, ill go to the haunted house but probably end up singing nursery rhymes. I heard the Co has sung few a verses.
I just witnessed some poor person being stretchered along the beach approximately 250m south of Grinders, the ambulance helicopter airlifted the person directly off the sand at the base of those sketchy cliffs. Looked like a small landslide/collapse where they stretchered the person from :(
Hope you're alright stranger, best of luck to you.
Heavy. Hope they're ok.
Anglesea? There is a recent warning on the GORCC Facebook page about possible landslides. Scroll down a little and you can see the warning. Check the comments on the post for an aerial video by Dean Snow and a pretty good indication of potential dangers. Be careful out there. Likewise, hope they're OK. Apologies for non Facebookers.
https://www.facebook.com/GORCCVICTORIA/
Same spot but a paraglider apparently.
https://www.krock.com.au/news/local-news/114944-air-ambulance-called-to-...
Happy to see the end of July. Surely the worst on the SC ever. From my memory July and August are usually the best months for this bit of coast. Hopefully August delivers us some decent conditions.
Yep, I'll 2nd that..... it's been shit-house. Today was again friggin terrible, inconsistent, weak 2ft, a little better on the lower tide but terrible by usual winter standards.
And ill 3rd it that this is breaking even. Westerlies up until NYE. Even stephens or stevens.
Yeh ok, you really needed a good winter NB. I was getting a bit worried about you over the summer period, you were clearly unimpressed by your summer swell 'n wind combo and fair enough too. The hoaxy should pump during that time of year.
I do remember, when I lived there though, decent winter conditions at T s%$×@& hay%÷×+*& and C %/£. Beautiful coastline and walks in, great memories.......
Ts%$×@& got me through Winter ‘18
The walks in used to be so much better as a grom. The Ti-Tree was a more or less a canopy most the way but now the joint is has been pushed over, squashed down and suffocated y weeds of all sorts. Then theres the polygala..
Clearly, a few here are in need of assistance.
A bonfire with all owned surfboards in your possession will exorcise the demons. You will awake with renewed clarity with no programmed reaction to crisp 6ft lines and a new life in front of you that concentrates on pleasing your partner. Do it now......
Anyone else getting this? The ring?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/22%C2%B0_halo
Those moon halos are really pronounced in the Colorado Rockies. And when you see one, it's a pretty good sign you'd be skiing deep powder the following day.
Uranus?
Only during Gay Ski Week.
That was my best week for tips all season. When I had still had hair and good looks!!!
also the white sun...
Same shot. Just with Flash on?
Don't be giving away to many secrets to the masses in your post to finbob there NB, keep it a bit cryptic bro..
This evening was glorious in the water, perfect way to finish a busy week.
At risk of upsetting the precious types, it is interesting to note that while the waves have been pretty bloody ordinary the past 3 weeks it's been pretty bloody busy in the water and yet the vibe has been well above average at the name breaks I frequent. Something to consider preserving once the metro lockdown ends, perhaps.
Tango, I recon you’re right
The last few weeks the line up (despite being rubbish) has been a pretty considerate place to be. Be nice to see that continue.
I've seen some crazy buoy forecasts on another site. Topping out at 11.5 ft at 14 sec SSW for next week. Cross checked that with BOM synoptic charts and there's absolutely nothing to indicate we are going to get anywhere near that.
Cops were out again today in the carparks.
yep ,my rego got checked a little further down the coast today.
Just surfed flinders, lots of people maybe everyones trying to get a wave before further lockdowns? be interesting to see what’s announced tomorrow...Sounds like old mate finbob will be fine with his chickens either way
Nice to see the coppers sending a group of four back to Melbourne with near on $7000 worth of fines from their surf at Bells. Rumour has it, they were patrolling at steps / boobs / evos earlier in the day. Couple of days ago it was JJ, Torquay, Barwon Heads and OG.
Yep...two cars four cops patrolling Lonnie yesterday
Checking licences and rego outside one of the local coffee hangs and apparently very politely asking a few crew who have turned up in holiday rentals to bugger off.
Honestly...I get my paper from the newsagents sunup every morning...faark me...looks like 1975!!
If I could just get the band back together to play kick to kick outside the IGA one last time I could die a happy man
Cheers
Sparx
Shame there isn't more being done to stop the spread on the southern end of the peninsula, still 0 cases down here but 70 odd active cases on the peninsula now which was just 2 active cases before Melbourne's outbreak. Lots o peanuts down here now, no social distancing or staying home for only 4 reasons, Sorrento was packed with cafe hangers, clothes shoppers, dolled up precious peanuts, none of them were out for essential needs. police driving around but doing nothing.
I think the mask wearing push has given people a false idea that if you are now protected and non contagious and its ok to do what you want and not worry about hand sanitising or social distancing or staying home.
Word is rest of Victoria will be placed on stage 3 lockdown Wednesday and Metro kook Dogs will be stage 4.
Hopefully this works, wouldn't mind being able to visit my Mum who has dementia and severe rheumatoid arthritis and is locked down in a nursing home in Rye. Only been able to see her twice in 6 months.
People who are pushing the limits and doing the wrong thing are obviously narrow minded and don't realise the impact this is having on some peoples lives.
Go for a run in ya local area or buy a smooth star and practice your palm out hand up cutbacks if you don't live near the surf, its only surfing, its not going anywhere, don't travel for a surf, if ya live near the surf, surf there not 45 minutes away, if you want some new clothes, buy them online, have an instant coffee at home if ya need a coffee or at least buy ya coffee then take it home you dont need to stand in front of the coffee shop drinking your coffee telling ya mates how good you are and how handsome they look with there new shit beard, if ya staying in your holiday home thats fine but don't have the extended family coming down for a little get away, the whole family doesn't need to go food shopping, one person can do that.
Our Local IGA can only have 10 max people in at any time, I cant believe that while there is a huge line of people waiting to shop, Mum, Dad and 3 kids have to go in and shop wandering around for 1/2 hour in the shop taking up half the capacity while people wait to get in. Stay home means stay home.
Any way hopefully Bone AKA (The Hair) got some good waves the last few days. Hey BONE almost some good deposits on the outside of the inside near the left of the middle, just to the left of the space ship.
Some of the OG's were floating around in the puppy wash yesterday, having their ego's groomed. Looked shit.
a hangover from the '91 amalgamation of local councils I reckon, doubt southern peninsula would be classed metro Melbourne if it was in a seperate council to Mornington and Mt Eliza, like back in the day when it was flinders shire, northern boundary was safety beach,
100%
But there are a lot of other ways to seperate areas. There are a lot of other areas with low cases that are included in metro Melbourne that also should be separated from Melbourne's lockdown.
The way I look at it, is if the Peninsula had a mass outbreak in numbers and Melbourne was near 0, no one would expect Melbourne to be put into lock down because of the peninsula's numbers.
I reckon its also about Golf, just noticing a lot of older clients are not keen to visit their holiday homes for fear of being fined but more than happy to travel from malvern down to st Andrews and cape shank for golf, there was pressure in first wave to allow golf and now its been ok, with restricted numbers being able to use golf courses at the one time they need more course available.... just a theory
From the Any way and on, you make be chuckle to loud for the morning!
outside of the inside near the left of the middle, just to the left of the space ships bellow
almost there just the gutter is too narrow my well hung long haired fellow
There’s 15 active cases. 70 total cases since the start of the pandemic. Still pretty shithouse though considering there was 0 active cases before half of stonington made their way down here on the announcement of lockdown 2
cheers for the correction
was going by what I had been told not checked.
Hey Craig, any ideas on why the bouys are all out of action. Pt Nepean went haywire about 6 am, Cape Sorell and Cape du Couedic both seemed to stop about 10 am today.
Dan Andrews forsure, shutting everything down, starting with the wave bouys.
Odd that both BOM buoys went offline at the same time, so it can't be a local receiving station issue. Other BOM obs are transmitting fine too. Not sure about Pt Nepean though.
Seriously though, probably something to do with Telstra's network wide mass outages that have been occurring. A few boffins will restart servers or whatever tomorrow and it'll all be back up and running but it's not going to do many any good, well not much more than a stones throw from the ocean anyway.
2020 really is such a shit year for sooo many people :(
Hold on tight everyone, shit getting real now....
....
:(
Checkmate surfing banned. No more Melbourne surfers
Certainly no grey area now.
Pray for bay waves
Is surfing banned for peninsula locals?
I read 5km radius for exercise and limited to 1 hour.
For those locals I'd be suiting up at home and straight back home to the shower after.
Make the most of your hour.
Very very few would live within 5km ocean side, it’s mostly just multimillionaire’s holiday homes. Certainly nobody will be surfing gunna for 6 weeks
Surfing is on the list of activities no longer permitted.
Shit you’re right, that’s hectic
And I’ve just ordered a new board
Well, at least it will be cured.
Where is this list?
I can't find this on the vic gov site, so it may actually be a load of rubbish.
https://twitter.com/chelsea_hetho/status/1289791141634662401/photo/1
https://twitter.com/chelsea_hetho/status/1289791141634662401/photo/2
Was linked on the guardian.
This is the legit list, dandrews posted it too
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1289795907186122752
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-melbourne-stage-4-restrict...
Merry Christmas MP. Just in time for howling SW!
Not Too Many Bells 5km Locals.
Surf Coast/Bellarine in stage 3 - no 5km limit. Still on.
Who would have ever dreamed that surfing would actually be banned. The weirdest of times. Stay safe everyone.
Dan Andrews just added Surf Coast to the lockdown region. He mentioned something about a 5km radius being OK, but said Torquay riff raff are not allowed to surf Bells anymore.
We would find out which street everyone lives on based on the breaks 5km away - or given behaviour so far, not.
Google maps, inundated....
I wonder if the Police will be patrolling MP beaches now that surfing is on the banned list? There’s a couple of sneaky spots out of sight from car parks, not that I’ll be surfing...
Reckon it wont be long until there is footage of a surfer being arrested/fined down MP way
be a sad day if its just one bloke having a quick dip at an isolated reef
Hang tight Vicco crew. Thoughts with you all. Better days to come. Yew.
Geelong and Surf Coast can’t be far off stage 4 lockdown given the number of infections in Geelong and Colac. Get your surfs in while you still can.
Given the infection numbers You could make a reasonable argument to extend the lockdown region to Geelong And include Colac but not the Surf Coast.
But if the surf coast was included In the lockdown zone you could hardly blame the authorities. The carrot hasn’t worked so they’d be tempted to bring out the stick.
Yep very surprised they haven’t gone harder in those areas. As hard as stage 4 is, it had to happen as something had to give, current strategy was failing badly, and as Dan said today it’s just not feasible for these lockdowns to continue for months. Here’s hoping this 6 weeks crushes the curve, genuinely no idea what would happen if it doesn’t. Can’t lock everyone inside forever.
Victorians can genuinely expect the hammer to come down now. The nice requests to respect the rules, and the thank you's for doing the right thing just haven't worked. The arseholes didn't respect stage 3 and nobody should expect them to suddenly have a new zest for social responsibility now that Melbourne has gone into stage 4. The carrot has failed so out comes the stick.
The new rules, especially the 5km radius and the curfew is very easy to police. There's no grey zone. The fines are still $1650 but Andrews has something to say about that figure on Monday. Nobody can be shocked if that figure goes up significantly.
I feel really bad for the MP crew. Of all the people who have been screwed over by Melbourne covidiots, the MP locals are top of the list.
For absolutely blatant disregard of the rules, ie having parties, I would love to see the fines tripled or $10k etc. But you’re right, very easy to police now with the 5km radius rule.
Agree on the $10k
Imagine how many crew would be around on the first 3 ft off shore day when the lockdown is lifted.
Be nice if they kept the 5 k radius thing in for a while, but let you do a few more activities.
Is there any point in still doing the MP report?
It’s just rubbing salt in the wound ahhhhh
Unless it says 2ft with stiff SW wind every day.
Got shot down for suggesting this 1st lockdown. Reports and forecasts do seem pointless at this time. Let’s see what happens.
This time is literally illegal though. What a time to be alive
Yep us local surfers who have been around for 30 years don't need to pay for a weather forecast. Big blow to swellnet
I'm torn between not being able to surf and not being able to go to Bunnings, not sure what to do now...
Just got out the water. That was fun and strangely uncrowded.........
Punters already rolling the dice in Westernport now on the TB cams.
There's a chance in these first handful of days that people haven't yet seen that surfing is banned.... or as you said they are just taking an potentially expensive gamble. Wonder how many out there at the moment live within 5km of westernport. Hardly a built up area around there, just holiday homes on big blocks
Doesn't matter how close you live. NO SURFING! Going to be a tough few weeks but lot's doing it tougher.