Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th April)

Best Days: Protected spots over the coming days, Monday morning, Tuesday, Wednesday exposed beaches

Recap

A mix of small SW swell and SE windswell on the coast yesterday with improving conditions across the beaches to 3ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft on the Surf Coast.

This morning conditions were clean across most spots but the swell small to tiny and easing.

This weekend and next week (Apr 11 – 17)

As we're right on the cusp of the weekend, we've got a clearer idea on the expected frontal activity due to impact the state.

Firstly, the strengthening polar low late in our swell window today has generated a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds, with a fleeting pulse of S/SW groundswell due from this source tomorrow morning.

It's a moot point though as there'll be larger and building levels of close-range swell as a strong cold front pushes up and into us.

This system has been upgraded a little since Wednesday and we'll see SW tending S/SW gales projected right up and through Bass Strait this evening and tomorrow, kicking up a large and stormy SW swell event.

We're now expected to see the Surf Coast jump to a stormy 5-6ft through the mid-late afternoon, 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with strong W/SW-SW winds. There's a very slim chance for a dawn W'ly on the Surf Coast, but conditions will be raw and bumpy and not worth worrying about. Size wise the swell will be smaller and to 3ft or so at a rough guestimate.

We'll see the swell easing through Sunday as the front clears to the east overnight, while the secondary weaker polar front pushing up behind it looks to steer winds a touch more favourably for protected spots early.

A fresh to strong SW'ly is due across most locations but select locations on the Surf Coast may see a brief W-W/SW breeze around dawn. Again it'll not be ideal and mostly bumpy and raw with easing sets from 4-5ft, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A temporary low point in swell is due Monday morning with surf to 3ft or so on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east but with cleaner conditions under a morning W/NW breeze, S'ly into the afternoon (SW across the Mornington Peninsula).

Into the afternoon the reinforcing S/SW swell from the polar front is due to fill in, with a broad but relatively weak fetch of SW winds pushing up through our southern swell window through the weekend.

A slight kick in size is expected through the afternoon (3-4ft Surf Coast - 6ft to the east), easing from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast Tuesday morning, around the 5ft range to the east.

Winds are looking more favourable for a wider selection of locations Tuesday and out of the N-N/NW, likely variable into the afternoon and N/NE east of Melbourne.

Wednesday looks smaller as fresher N/NE offshores kick in, favouring the beaches.

Longer term, as discussed last update, there's plenty more swell on the way as it looks like the Southern Ocean will be over-active in our medium-range swell window for at least the next fortnight.

This will produce plenty of swell with what looks to be favourable winds as the storms stay at arms reach. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!