Great weekend that's worth making the most of
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 28th February)
Best Days: Saturday, Sunday until mid-afternoon, Wednesday on the beaches, Thursday morning on the beaches
Recap
Great waves across the Surf Coast yesterday with the morning being the pick under a fresh offshore NW-W/NW breeze, shifting more W'ly into the afternoon.
Today our large and powerful SW groundswell is filling in, 5-6ft this morning on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions were clean on the face but wobbly and not as good as yesterday morning on the Surf Coast. The swell has since kicked to 8ft on the magnets across the Surf Coast and we should see 8ft+ sets to the east as winds shift moderate S/SW, fresher later.
Big and lonely sets late morning
This week and weekend (Feb 29 – Mar 6)
The weekend forecast is still on track with tomorrow looking excellent in protected spots as today's large SW groundswell eases under a light to moderate morning NW-W/NW breeze. Easing sets from 4-5ft+ are due on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds should hold until midday, then giving into afternoon S/SE sea breezes.
Moving into Sunday and our secondary large, long-period S/SW groundswell is still on track, with a secondary strong frontal system, on the back of the one linked to today's swell, currently firing up west-southwest of Tassie.
This system will be stronger but shorter lived than the one linked to today's swell, with a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds expected to be projected through our southern swell window.
The direction will be ideal for the Surf Coast, with the groundswell expected to arrive through Sunday morning and peak through the afternoon.
Size wise the Surf Coast should kick back to a large 6ft+ on the swell magnets through the afternoon (5-6ft most other breaks), smaller in the morning with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are now looking more favourable for a wider variety of locations with a light morning N/NE breeze, shifting more NE ahead of a late afternoon SW change. This won't be ideal for the Surf Coast reefs so you'll have to think outside the square.
Late Sunday's change will be associated with a trough and then high moving in from the west, bringing poor and onshore S'ly winds (fresh) on Monday as the S/SW groundswell eases. Therefore make the most of the weekend.
Unfortunately Tuesday will see winds still onshore out of the S'th, shifting S/SE through the day with the morning seeing a further drop in S/SW swell. Into the afternoon though a new S/SW groundswell is expected, generated by broad but relatively weak polar front firing up south-west of Tassie Sunday, moving through our swell window until Monday.
The swell from this system will be mid-period, arriving later Tuesday and peaking Wednesday morning to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east.
We should see winds finally improve on Wednesday, swinging E/NE-NE through the morning, favouring the beaches ahead of sea breezes. Thursday will see the swell easing under an E/NE breeze, with the surf bottoming out Friday.
Longer term it looks like we'll see a return to easterly winds and windswells as the strong and stubborn high moving in next week is squeezed by instability off the East Coast and in the Tasman Sea.
All the more motivation to make the most of the current conditions! Have a great weekend!
Comments
Chuuurrr ma cuzzy
Now that was a fun morning of Southern Ocean goodness.
What a fun session this morning! I'd say the 4-5ft+ call was spot on - on the sets only, there were lulls of 2-3ft between them - not 6ft sets though. Break close to town. Yeah other name reefs we could see had a bit of a crowd. Enjoyed reading the Friday stories in the last report, by the time we had appts/work done by about 3pm Fri the wind was in and I did see one wave come through a lineup that was a bit bigger than the 6ft anticipated. Waited and had fun this morning though there was a bit of getting caught inside. Surprised at how comfortable I was seeing the bigger sets a long way out and waiting for them. Paddled out extra far and got one of the biggest ones, felt great!
Into it VJ!
Hey Craig,
I see your prediction for tomorrow afternoon surf coast - what size are you expecting at dawn?
Cheers.
PS Craig - Why do non payers see comments for forecaster notes? If the notes are pay only shouldn't the comments tagged to them only been for those that pay for the service/info? It would keep the trolls away and would make for a more quality service by keeping the line of communication regarding note discussion for people who pay for that service and the service provider?
Makes sense doesn't it?
Now that swellnet is more into the money making business it kinda makes sense to leave the forums open to non subscribers in order to bait them into subscribing. i find it pretty funny when the admins here post screenshots of the cams up north with the times and date's in the top corner.
"Now that swellnet is more into the money making business"..
More into the money making business?
Don't you mean "Because Swellnet is like every other small business, with a lotta bills to pay every month"...? Perhaps it's time for a refresher - check this article I wrote almost three years ago (followed by this one, a year later).
As for posting surfcam grabs, this has been discussed many times in the past but:
(1) we've had surfcams for about fifteen years now, and posting surfcam grabs has been going on for about the same length of time.
(2) the primary reason they are posted is for real time surf verification, which assists in hindcasting and other reporting purposes.
Unlike other weather observations such as temperature (from a thermometer), rainfall (from a gauge) and even ocean swell heights (from a buoy), there is no way of measuring surf height trends other than through manual observations. And because surf size/quality trend is not diurnal (i.e. unlike temps, which almost always reach a maximum between 1-3pm - peak surf conditions can happen at any time of the day) - it's important to offer a flexible way of reporting this information.
As such, the Forecaster Notes comments is an ideal channel to archive this information, because it sits below the synoptic discussion for the same relevant time period (which helps us evaluate where the swell originated from, as it would have been already discussed). And the surfcam images are time stamped, so that we know exactly when they were taken.
Amongst our ever-growing list of development work, we are planning to build in functionality so that *some* comments (by Swellnet staff) can be put behind the paywall. But, at the moment we have an enormous list of much higher priority work.
Also, I think there's merit in keeping the general surf discussion open to everyone. These Forecaster Notes are frequently a great source of insight from a wide range of surfers - some subscribers, some not - across a wide range of topics (not necessarily related to current surf/weather conditions either). Finding the balance is the key.
Oh yeah i know it's like every other business, whether it's advertising donations or a subscription swellnet needs to find some funds to keep it running. I, for one don't mind donating towards the things i enjoy to help make them great. And yea these forums are a great source, iv'e learnt so much about weather forecasting over the past 10 years just by reading swellnet's detailed forecast. Anyway make the most out of today, viccos set for another 1-2weeks of easterly slop after today.
"Also, I think there's merit in keeping the general surf discussion open to everyone."
It's also an important public service.
Just imagine the carnage if VJ, ringmaster, Gary G, goofyfoot and myself didn't have an outlet for our creativity. Torquay/Jan Juc would end up like Corio/Norlane.
#armstrongcreek/warralilly=corio/norlane of the south
don't forget the hashtags VL
You took the word's right out of my mouth braniac. Torquay is far from what it use to be like 5+ years ago.
i havent surfed week ends for years, but with changing circumstance , i have had to surf weekends more. I am shocked at the crowds and behaviour................. i thought mid week crowds were bad enough. In saying that this arvo was for so epic and the crowds were light!!!
Yep Torquay changed for ever now. time to move.
Trolls? I think the green wall is talking about you Gary G.
Great work VJ been getting lots of shots from mates over the coast and today is another cracker! I'm up the coast surfing the 2-3ft leftovers from you guys dreaming of being further south..
Cheers Craig, if I dare post a size into these notes I'm going to size it as accurately as I can, with a rough idea of which bit of coast, hopefully it helps you, as to why - Ben describes above. Today is great, I will try to find a gap in the crowds as the tide comes in. Having some of it behind the paywall (the pics) is a good idea.
Also, if you can replay your cams, check Torquay at about 10:19am or around that, statistical outlier rolls through!
Fun morning at a beachie with consistent solid sets. Then mid morning through to lunch at a reef between Juc and Bells. First hour solid and fun. Then as the tide started to come in and the swell continued to pulse, it really kicked hard. Really solid lines and super consistent. Wind was causing a bit of chop on the face but it was a hell of a lot of fun to get waves like that in ‘warm’ water. What a week it’s been!
Can you fix the new Lorne surf cam. Totally wrong angle. Can’t see what is going on at the point. Not at all helpful if that’s where your heading. Cheers
Here ya go mate, fixed it for you.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/lorne-point
It was bloody pumping. Surfed for 4 hours and it just kept on getting bigger, some amazing rides by all the crew that took it on, well done fella's. Pretty much winteresk perfection only this time with beautiful warm water.
Totally stoked and stuffed from a really special run, thankyou Huey, we all needed that.
3 guys trying their luck out the back of Gunnamatta today. Looked like incredibly hard work with no reward involved.
One guy paddled for a wave, only to realise it was going to be a 500 meter wide closeout and got sucked over with the lip.
Would of been a solid 8 footer and throwing out. He copped a terrific flogging and hold down much to our amusement.
Total psycho! Really, that's just bloody stupid and dangerous, silly fucka's.
Stunning view looking up towards Winkipop....
All time.
nice photo's curry man!?!?!!? Me and J.B say hi
Hey Ben thanks for the reply. Not sure if I gave enough context or was clear enough in the question I posted? Unlike NorthWestSouth I am not questioning surf cam shots or the fact that you have a paywall. I have been and continue to be a subscriber as you offer a great quality product in forecaster notes that (for me and I’m sure a lot of other subscribers) is absolutely worth the money. I agree with what you say in those articles and happy to be a reader that supports the business, as all businesses need customer support to survive/grow - that shouldn’t come as surprise to anyone....
In those articles you said “Shortly the paywall will expand so that the thrice-weekly forecast notes - arguably the most valuable of all Swellnet’s products - will only be available to sub holders”. Which brings me back to my original question: Why do non payers see comments for forecaster notes?
If the forecaster notes are the most valuable of your products then shouldn’t looking after those paying customers be high on your priorities? If so, then by keeping the comments posted under forecaster notes only for paying customers/service provider use would be a way to recognise, privilege and also protect that most valuable relationship? Which brings me to the crux of why I am asking and in what context.
For me the main use of posting a comment under the notes is when I have needed further clarification regarding what was said about swell timing or size in the forecast - which ultimately has a big impact on what I get out of the product (Ie, where and when I surf). It is not that often I need to ask because Craig usually provides all such details and specifics in the notes, which are really excellent. However, my experience the few times I have asked has either been coping passive-aggressive abuse from the non paying trolls or Craig has or has not responded. Why?
1. The provider/customer relationship is not being adequately privileged and protected (It is open to outside influences who want to cloudy the water for their own shits and giggles – rather than using the service like a paying customer).
2. The culture of belittling and bagging any person/comment that asks for such forecast clarification has become the norm in such Swellnet comment threads. I think we have all seen this happen to different posters, not just myself. Sometimes I wonder if that is why Craig doesn’t always respond because he know he too will cop too flack and can’t be bothered engaging with it.
The crew at Swellnet do an amazing job with your forecasting for which many of us are grateful. Not trying to be negative, just sharing my experience and hope it is a case of fine-tuning your product.
Mate, I genuinely appreciate your comments and your support.
However, building the 'perfect' website is impossible. There are as many reasons for leaving the comments open as there are for putting them behind the paywall, the difference is about $5,000 worth of development.
As I mentioned, we do have plans to put some comments behind the paywall but it's a pretty low priority.
I also totally understand that you want to get value for money - but for 22c per day it's really hard to find a model that works for everyone. There are plenty of valuable comments posted each day by non-subscribers, and I know that many subscribers would be disappointed if they were not part of the Swellnet fabric any more.
Too many crew are asking Craig for really specific advice in the comments section. Firstly, forecasting isn't exact, secondly people's opinions of wave size varies significantly (eg 6ft in Victoria is 8-10ft in Queensland) and thirdly, this type of information should be behind the paywall.
The comments section should be filled with misinformation and dodgy forecasts from contributors. People who pay should get value for money, Swellnet should get more revenue, and free-loaders like myself get to spread BS. Win Win Win.
Cheers Ben.
Brilliant shots, Yorkessurfer. Today or yesterday?
Today
Nice. If you’re a Yorkes local / SA based, you timed your trip to perfection.
Epic day today. Just got better and better and bigger as the day went on.
Funny how it's a lot easier to jag waves when its busy as soon as the volume cranks up a bit! Caught some fucken crackers on me 6'8.
Awesome. How big were the arvo bombs?
I’d call late morning / early arvo 6-7ft on the bigger sets where I was. Didn’t check the magnets but I imagine there would have been some big bombs there. Really consistent and lots of waves in the sets. So good!
Pulsy 6ft sets with a few bigger ones to keep everyone honest.
Fuck it, I got to sit next to a fat fucker with face tatts on the 6am flight out of Avalon.
Loving all the feedback guys. What a weekend and week of waves! Stoked you all got your fill!
Absolutely pumped late arvo in the east too! A solid 6ft with a few bigger cleanups on the head. Pretty rare to have such perfect conditions on both coasts
There's something really satisfying about juuust managing to punch through the cleanup set of the session and then looking around to see 90% of the crew have been smoked!
The best bit about today was how the crowd petered out just as the ENE wind hit about 8-10kts and the swell kicked and then......it just snapped NNW and within 10 minutes was like a postcard and uncrowded. In a springy, you beauty....
I was short for time today so could only squeeze in a quick surf in the arvo. Not ideal - ended up waveless,...! had 2 x failed paddle out attempts at Bells, followed by a short session at Winki which was ended by the gusty westerly.
Was seriously firing though, I'd call it a consistent 6-8ft with arguably some bigger sets. Getting past the button was hard, lots of crew turning back, saw a couple of people washed over. The frequency of the 6-8fters was what made it a challenge, like a 3-5 wave set of 8ft bombs at what seemed like every 5 mins. There were also some very big close outs breaking a fair way further out than the button, timing was everything!
Also some poor fella didn't look to be in a good state at the Winki car park when I was leaving - hope he's ok!
Yeh, I saw the SES flying down the road, lights a blazing, then an ambulance, any word on the issue? Hope he's ok?
There's some incredible photos from yesterday. Check out these from Steve Ryan.
Cheers craigos ya fckn sickcunt
Haha, no wukkas!
What was the angle yesterday? Seemed about right for everywhere!
Can see the angle from Sorell here.. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT65015.shtml
What a weekend Craigos, love your work