Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 31st January)

Best Days: Possibly Saturday morning for desperate surfers, mid-next week

Recap

Terrible conditions yesterday and today with fresh to strong onshore winds and no real size yesterday, slightly bigger today but with no quality at all.

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This week and weekend (Feb 1 – 4)

Into this afternoon we should see a bit more size across both regions as a weak front pushes up and into us, bringing with it a mid-period increase in S/SW swell.

The swell will hold into tomorrow morning with poor 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ waves to the east along with a moderate to fresh S/SE wind.

Easing surf is expected into the afternoon, smaller Friday as conditions remain poor under that persistent moderate to fresh S/SE breeze.

Our slightly stronger, but still mid-period S/SW swell due for Saturday is still on track, generated by a relatively weak polar front yesterday and today.

This swell is due to fill in Saturday and peak during the middle of the day but only to 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast with 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

The models are divergent regarding the position of a weak surface trough and the winds for Saturday morning, with the American model showing more variable breezes, tending E/SE through the morning, while the European version has moderate S/SW winds.

We'll have to have a closer look at this Friday, but in any case the swell isn't anything special in any case.

Both models have onshore winds moving in again Sunday though with no new surf.

As touched on last update, winds will slowly improve through the middle of next week, (still onshore Monday and possibly Tuesday) but lighter NE Wednesday. We may see a small fun mid-period swell in the mix, but more on this Friday.