Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th November)

Best Days: Swell magnets Sunday morning, Wednesday morning and Thursday morning

Recap

Average conditions with no decent size yesterday afternoon, though an increase in windswell was seen through the afternoon across most locations with favourable winds east of Melbourne.

This morning the surf has cleaned up with variable breezes across most locations and 2-3ft of south-east windswell across magnets on the Surf Coast and similar sized sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

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This weekend and next week (Nov 18 - 24)

The surf will become cleaner over the weekend but there's not much action expected across the coast.

If you're looking for the most size, Sunday morning should provide this.

Tomorrow we'll see a small to tiny mix of leftover windswells only for beginners on the Surf Coast and possibly up to 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula. A variable breeze from the NE will create clean conditions ahead of sea breezes.

Our very inconsistent and small SW groundswell for Sunday morning should provide a slight lift in swell for both regions. Infrequent 2ft sets are likely across Surf Coast swell magnets, with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions will be great for exposed breaks with a morning N/NE breeze, before sea breezes kick in. The swell will also ease through the day, so hit it early for the most size.

Come Monday the swell will become tiny again on the Surf Coast with fading 2ft sets if we're lucky on the Mornington Peninsula (likely 1-2ft). Favourable winds are likely for the beaches before sea breezes develop.

As touched on last update, we're due to see some new W/SW groundswell mid-week across the state, generated by a strong and stalling polar low firing up in our far swell window between Western Australian and Heard Island.

An initial fetch of W/SW gales will generate a small inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Wednesday morning, while a better fetch of gale to severe-gale winds moving on top of the already active sea state should generate a larger and stronger groundswell for late in the day and more so Thursday morning.

We should see the Surf Coast increasing from an inconsistent 1-2ft during the morning Wednesday to 2-3ft on dark, with infrequent 2-3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, pulsing to 4-5ft+ on dark.

Thursday morning should see inconsistent but fun 3ft+ waves across magnets on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are looking favourable for the beaches again Wednesday and Thursday mornings with light NE winds, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!