Average spell ahead for Victorian surfers
Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd November)
Best Days: No great days in general due to generally tricky winds. Sunday morning should offer a period of lumpy but fun surf in Torquay with variable winds, and maybe Wednesday will be OK if the onshores ease up as we'll see an early peak in S/SW swell.
Recap: Unfortunately, Thursday came in well below expectations. Swell periods were slightly lower than estimated, which resulted in a later arrival time and a smaller peak in size, but worse - the anticipated window of light W/NW winds across the Surf Coast occurred for only a few hours around midnight (instead of persisting through the dawn patrol, as usually occurs), with moderate SW winds kicking back in around 2am. We did see the onshore airstream ease back to become variable in the afternoon, but the surf quality never really recovered. Today we’ve seen much better waves for the morning session with leftover 3ft sets across the Torquay reefs and early light offshore winds, ahead of a vigorous SW change that’s now gusting 32kts at Aireys Inlet.
Lil' afternoon peelers at Lorne Point (yep, the cam is back!).
This weekend and next week (Nov 4th onwards)
*today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s away*
It’s not a particularly inspiring forecast period.
Today’s front will clear quickly to the east on Saturday, but a secondary front - broader, with better surf generating potential - will slide south of Tasmania, maintaining some form of southerly breeze all weekend. Likely SW on Saturday and SE on Sunday.
Early mornings still have an outside chance for a period of light W’ly winds on the Surf Coast, probably Sunday more so than Saturday owing to a weaker pressure gradient - but conditions won’t be classic by any stretch. Wave heights should manage an inconsistent 3ft across the Surf Coast both days, possibly with a period of slightly bigger waves early Sunday, originating from the secondary front. Expect 4-5ft+ surf east of Melbourne.
Next week looks pretty much as has been discussed over the last few days.
Monday will see easing size and freshening SW winds as a front clips the coast in the afternoon. No great surf is expected at any coast.
A blocking pattern will have begun developing across our broader swell window over the weekend, but a strong polar front will sneak through the eastern periphery from late Sunday through Monday, S/SW of Tasmania. This will kick up a solid S/SW swell for later Tuesday and Wednesday, though fresh southerly winds will write off Tuesday’s potential (the new swell will kick in pretty late, anyway), whilst Wednesday has more potential as winds ease under a weakening ridge of high pressure.
We should see lumpy 3-4ft+ sets Wednesday morning across the Surf Coast but it’s not worth rearranging your diary around. East Coast open beaches should push the 6ft mark, though conditions won’t be great.
Looking further ahead, and wave heights will ease steadily from Thursday ahead of an extended period of small swell, owing to the aforementioned blocking pattern. We’ll see some small long range energy make landfall but it'll only favour exposed beaches, so we’ll have to work around the local winds. More on this in Monday’s update.
Comments
what a putrid spring we are having
Well, what did you expect after such a great winter? It's been insanely frustrating watching from the East Coast, let me tells ya.
Spring is always crap, November is always a terrible month.
2017 going on record for worst year on Peninsula
I would be calling it far from a great winter Ben. Apart from a good 3 week run early on, lots of inconsistent west swells that lacked. Generally a below to average season, the good days were fewer and far between this winter. After the previous 2 seasons , this winter was a let down!!!
Yep I agree completely. Very average winter compared to last few years! I guess this is why NSW has been small with less S swell making it around the corner?
Spot on brainiac 2015&2016 both had several good long range lined up ground swells...favorable winds too nothing massive but 5ft+ and quality I was surfed out by September both those 2 years
Another day of pus
I went too bed excited for the prospect of average conditions. Couldn't even get that.
Love your optimisim
thermalben commented FRIDAY, 3 NOV 2017 at 4:15PM new
Well, what did you expect after such a great winter? It's been insanely frustrating watching from the East Coast, let me tells ya.
Now let me tell you Ben and I think all Victorians would agree. The further away from Vicco that you can get in winter, the better it looks.
Point taken crustt. Perhaps it's the anecdotal nature of observing (interstate) surf conditions - but it seems it's been a heck of a lot better over in Vicco than on the East Coast.
I think how dedicated you are to chasing waves helps a lot too.
If you can just down tools at the drop of a hat and go get your fix that will see you out for a few days or week or whatever that definitely goes some way to keeping fulfilled
key word there is can hahah
A good winter in Victoria is not the same thing everywhere.
Yes endless solid groundswells with NW-W winds are great for the West coast.
But for us here on Phillip Island a good winter is actually when we get lots of light winds ideally more northerly or even NE than normal and smaller swells, so our beachies form good banks and we get a mix of good beachies and med size waves on reefs, big swells an NW-W give us very little options.
We seem to get these conditions also in years with little rain fall and lots of sunny days which is even better.
@Nick Bone I'm curious what conditions you would call a good winter?
Indo D I’m tipping n-bone would like similar conditions to you
Yeah thats why i asked as id imagine the beachies would be their bread and butter...inside the bay is fun when you are young but unless huge swell is a bit small and gutless and crowded but they have the odd spot up Flinders way too.
Looks like a good week to re-wax boards.