Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th October)

Best Days: Tues: large easing swell with winds becoming lighter W'ly (possibly NW on the Surf Coast). Wed: light W/NW winds and moderate swells, best suited Surf Coast. Thurs: another large groundswell, with best conditions for Surf Coast. Size easing during the day. Fri: early window of offshore winds and strong but easing swells. 

Recap: Saturday was almost flat across most coasts, but a new swell built through Sunday, and many beaches delivered fun clean waves under a N’ly breeze. Today we’ve seen a slow building trend as an expected XXL swell slams the coast, though we’re yet to see any appreciable size in Torquay, owing to the initial W/NW swell direction. However, the Cape Sorell buoy has already seen max wave heights of around 15m (~50ft) with peak swell periods around 18 seconds. Though, there is a heavy windswell loading in these numbers. Winds were initially N/NW (offering clean conditions at 13th Beach, see image below from the surfcam this morning) but we’ve seen seen a W/NW and then W/SW trend behind a cold front bump up most locations.

Lovely clean lines at 13th Beach this morning

This week (Oct 25 onwards)

*today’s notes will be brief as Craig’s away*

Watching the data roll in from Cape Sorell today - along with the heightened anticipation of this swell event - has made it appear that this incoming swell is a non-event, for surfers at least. 

We’re still only seeing 3ft sets in Torquay as of mid-afternoon (though a rapid increase is likely at any time from now), but the trend until now is what was largely what was expected from Craig’s notes on Friday - the projected size in Torquay was around the 3ft+ mark for this morning, with the large new swell kicking in late afternoon (behind the wind change). So, with Friday’s notes being issued 72 hours ago, today - so far - seems to be reasonably well inline with expectations. 

But in any case, taking over from Craig this week means I’ve kinda been thrown in the deep end for today's notes, having not watched the Southern Ocean charts for much of last week. It's tricky to work out how the last few hours of today might play out before I hit the 'publish' button on this forecast. 

All of the available data sources for today (CdC and Sorell buoys, ASCAT winds, surface charts etc) seem to fall in line with Craig’s Friday expectations, so there’s not much more I can do than follow the guidance for tomorrow as there’s no real reason to doubt it otherwise - I have no compelling evidence to suggest otherwise. 

If anything, the local wind forecast for tomorrow looks a smidge better. Today’s front is already clearing to the east and we should see winds straighten up from the west across most coasts on Tuesday as a new front approaches the coast, possibly even resulting in a light NW breeze across the Surf Coast. It probably won’t be enough to iron out all of the lumps and bumps but conditions will improve quickly. 

As for size, expect easing surf all day with early 5-6ft+ sets at dawn across the Surf Coast reefs (closer to 8-10ft east of Melbourne), losing a foot or two throughout the day. 

Wednesday should see mainly light to moderate W’ly winds as the front clips the coast (early NW in Torquay) with a temporary dip in size to 3ft+ across the Surf Coast. There should be plenty of fun waves on offer. Expect almost double this size at exposed beaches east of Melbourne though.

Thursday has a new long period swell on the cards, and for some reason the models seem to be majorly undercalling the size. A deep low SW of Western Australia today has a broad, healthy pre-frontal W/NW fetch that is already generating a strong swell, and will move through our swell window into Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Our surf model is estimating around 4ft in Torquay from this source on Thursday but I think we’ll see solid 6ft sets across the Surf Coast reefs (and 8-10ft again east of Melbourne). It’s due to arrive overnight Wednesday so should be well and truly truly in the water for first light Thursday. I really like the look of this event, as the storm track is a little longer, but also slightly further away from the coast, which should allow the energy to sort itself out a little better ebfore making landfall (compared to the current inbound swell).

No major synoptic breeze is expected Thursday so we should see early light NW winds across the Surf Coast and variable conditions elsewhere. Protected spots east of Melbourne will be well worth a look too. 

Friday looks potentially a little average at this stage with a small but vigorous front expected to cross the coast, bringing a SW wind change - though it may not arrive until late morning or lunchtime (so, early morning should see offshore winds). Size will be easing from Thursday; though inconsistent 3-5ft sets are possible west of Melbourne, up to 6-8ft east of Melbourne. The front may kick up some short range swell but not until late in the day, behind the wind change. 

As for the weekend, it looks like Friday’s change will be tailed closely behind by a series of small polar fronts/lows that should maintain around 2-3ft+ across the Surf Coast, though winds are dicey as it’ll be mainly SW (outside chance for early W’ly winds in Torquay). But, certainly quite rideable this weekend, just a lot smaller than what’s expected over the coming days. 

Long term into next week suggests a blocking pattern will develop south of WA, which usually leads to an extended period of smaller surf - but, most blocking patterns often display a strong node of the LWT on either side, and in this case the eastern flank may very well be positioned just on the eastern periphery of our acute south swell window, just below Tasmania. This could deliver a S/SW groundswell for the first part of next week.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.