Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 13th October)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, both regions Sunday, exposed beaches Monday and Tuesday

Recap

A slight lift in W/SW swell yesterday morning to 2ft on the Surf Coast with favourable winds for protected locations, strengthening into the afternoon as the swell built a little more. Locations east of Melbourne were poor.

Today we've got some better swell on the build across the state, generated by a strong mid-latitude front pushing in yesterday and passing across Tassie early this morning.

The Surf Coast was around 2-3ft, more so 3ft at 13th Beach with favourable winds for the protected reefs, while the Mornington Peninsula was terrible and onshore.

We should see the surf build further this afternoon from the front, but winds will swing W/SW-SW across all locations.

This weekend and next week (Oct 14 - 20)

Behind today's frontal system, a broad fetch of polar W/SW gales are being generated and this should create a good SW groundswell for tomorrow, holding most of the day before easing out of the S/SW Sunday.

Tomorrow, the Surf Coast magnets should see 3ft+ waves (3ft everywhere else) with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, easing steadily from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively Sunday.

Conditions will be best on the Surf Coast tomorrow with a light W/NW tending S/SW breeze, while all locations should be clean on Sunday if not a little lumpy with a variable wind ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

Into early next week a small reinforcing SW swell is due, produced by a less than favourably aligned but increasing fetch of W/NW gales through our south-western swell window over the weekend.

The Surf Coast should hang around 2ft to occasionally 3ft Monday with 3-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula as morning NE tending N/NE winds favour the beaches (giving into afternoon sea breezes).

From here until the end of the week the swell will drop away to nothing as a large blocking high deflects any decent storms away from us.

Tuesday will still be fun across exposed beaches along with a N/NE breeze, but tiny surf is then due Wednesday and Thursday.

Longer term we may see some good W/SW swell late week/next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!