Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 11th October)

Best Days: Surf Coast around the lower tide tomorrow, Surf Coast Friday morning, more so Saturday morning and all locations Sunday morning, east of Melbourne early next week

Recap

Great conditions across the Surf Coast yesterday morning with clean waves in the 3ft range, giving into sea breezes through the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula improved through the day as winds eased and tended more variable.

This morning the waves are a bit smaller with a reinforcing increase in swell coming in a touch under Monday's expectations. We've got fun 2-3ft waves across the beaches on the Surf Coast and pumping 3-5ft waves to the east. Winds should remain good all day on the Mornington Peninsula and tend a little more N/NW on the Surf Coast.

This week and next weekend (Oct 12 - 15)

We'll see today's swell easing through this afternoon, back to a small 2ft on the Surf Coast tomorrow and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula as W/NW winds favour locations west of Melbourne. The morning high tide won't be ideal, so try surfing late morning at magnets. We may also see a slight bump in short-range W/SW swell during the afternoon but with no major size or power.

This swell should hang in Friday morning with smallish 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, building later in the day with some better W/SW groundswell energy.

The swell is looking best Saturday with a good fetch of mid-latitude W/SW gales falling more into our south-west swell window tomorrow evening and Friday morning, resulting in a peak on the weekend.

A small increase is likely later Friday to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula though morning W/NW winds will swing W/SW.

Come Saturday morning we should see fun 3ft waves across most breaks on the Surf Coast (with the odd possible sneaker at magnets) and 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

With a good fetch of SW gales stalling through our southern swell window Friday afternoon, the easing trend will be slowed, with Sunday morning still likely to see 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast out of the S/SW, with 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds on Saturday morning will be best for the Surf Coast with a W/NW breeze, tending SW into the afternoon, while we'll hopefully see variable winds into Sunday ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Into next week the swell will continue to ease as winds hold from the north-eastern quadrant favouring swell magnets. A blocking high will keep our coasts quiet until a strong frontal system tries to push through late week, but more on this Friday.