Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 9th October)

Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday morning, beaches Wednesday (Surf Coast reefs later), Surf Coast Thursday and Friday morning, both regions Saturday morning, east of Melbourne Sunday

Recap

Small waves for the weekend, biggest on Saturday morning and best for the beaches across all regions.

This morning the swell was still small and coming in at an inconsistent 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast with more size on the Mornington Peninsula but with W'ly winds. Into this afternoon we should see the first of two pulses of inconsistent W/SW swell, building to 2-3ft at magnets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with a W/SW change.

This week and next weekend (Oct 10 - 15)

This afternoon's increase in W/SW swell will be followed by a better increase in size tomorrow. These two swells were generated by strong back to back polar fronts firing up towards WA late last week and over the weekend.

We should see the secondary swell peaking through tomorrow, but a third front that's currently under WA will keep wave heights up into Wednesday morning, ahead of a drop through the afternoon.

The Surf Coast should see surf in the 3ft range tomorrow, with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, possibly kicking a little mid-late afternoon with the arrival of the third pulse.
Wednesday morning should then see easing sets from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, smaller into Thursday morning.

Winds tomorrow will be best for the Surf Coast with a NW offshore until mid-afternoon and then late E/SE sea breezes.

Wednesday looks best on the beaches with a fresh N/NE offshore, tending more N/NW into the mid-late afternoon with an approaching front, leaving moderate to fresh and persistent W/NW winds into Thursday.

This mid-latitude front won't be too significant, with it projecting a weak but persistent fetch of strong W/SW winds through our western swell window, strengthening favourably while approaching us, generating some good W/SW swell for very late Thursday but more so Friday.

We should see the surf building through the day Friday from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, up to 3-4ft late in the day withy building surf to 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will only be favourable during the morning with a W/NW breeze, giving into a W/SW-SW change into the afternoon.

A drop in size is expected through Saturday and a variable breeze should create great conditions across both coasts.

Sunday looks smaller again with E/NE winds, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.