Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 2nd October)

Best Days: Both coasts Sunday and Monday mornings, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast, Thursday both coasts

Recap

Large surf out of the W/SW Saturday but with less than ideal conditions for all but protected breaks under gusty W/SW winds (W'ly for a period early on the Surf Coast).

Sunday was excellent with pumping 4-6ft waves on the Surf Coast as winds held offshore for the reefs until mid-afternoon, while the Mornington Peninsula was large and bumpy.

Today the swell is holding with some great new reinforcing SW energy filling in, with it due to strengthen a little further this afternoon. The Surf Coast is in the 3-5ft range with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula and winds should remain favourable until mid-afternoon again.

A stronger increase in swell period should push the Surf Coast more towards the consistent 5ft range, with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

This week and weekend (Oct 3 - 8)

Today's and more so this afternoon's reinforcing SW groundswell was generated over the weekend by an impressive broad and elongated fetch of W/NW-W gales moving from south-west of WA, under the country.

We should see the swell hang in tomorrow morning to a similar 5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing just a touch into the afternoon but more so from Wednesday, down from 3-4ft and 6ft respectively.

Conditions will be great across most locations tomorrow morning with local offshores (light N/NW Surf Coast, and N/NE Mornington Peninsula) tending variable ahead of mid-afternoon sea breezes.

Wednesday looks best on the beaches with a light N/NE breeze, tending more E/SE into the afternoon.

The swell will continue to ease into Thursday and winds look to take a swing to the S'th through the day as a deepening surface trough/low moves in from the west.

We're looking at early light N winds at this stage, giving into the change through the day, along with an increase in S/SW windswell later in the day and more so Friday with poor S'ly winds.

Into the weekend we'll see a mix of easing windswell and background W/SW groundswell as winds swing back to the NE Saturday and then N'th Sunday as a vigorous cold front approaches from the west.

This front may generate some decent swell into next week, but more on this Wednesday.