Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th September)

Best Days: Protected spots early tomorrow Surf Coast, Surf Coast Sunday, Monday, all locations Tuesday and Wednesday morning

Recap

A good increase in S/SW through yesterday to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, building a touch further through the afternoon. Conditions remained favourable for protected locations on the Surf Coast all day.

Today a slightly bigger SW swell has filled in with clean 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast and larger bumpier surf to the east. The swell should hold all day as winds swing more W/NW.

This weekend and next week (Sep 30 – Oct 6)

From this weekend we've got a great run of swell expected across the Victorian coast with back to back polar fronts firing up through the Southern Ocean.

Currently the strong polar low linked to the weekend's swell has formed south of WA, with a broad fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds being generated through our western and south-western swell windows.

This low will continue east through today while weakening slightly. In saying this we'll see a great fetch of W/SW-SW gales pushed right up and into us this evening and early tomorrow.

What we can expect is a moderate to large sized W/SW swell, with mid-period energy through tomorrow morning, followed by stronger groundswell energy into the mid-late afternoon.

The Surf Coast should be in the 5ft range all day with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula along with strong but easing W/SW winds. The Torquay region should see an early W/NW'ly favouring the protected reefs.

The swell should drop away through Sunday from the 4-5ft range on the Surf Coast (possibly the odd sneaker at magnets around dawn though with the high tide) and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds look decent most of the day for the Surf Coast with a W/NW tending W breeze, W/SW through the mid-afternoon.

Forming right behind the strong polar low linked to the weekend's swell is a more impressive fetch of elongated and broad W/NW tending W'ly gales.

This should generate a moderate to large sized reinforcing SW groundswell for Monday afternoon and Tuesday, easing from Wednesday.

The Surf Coast should hold around 4ft Monday morning, increasing more towards 5ft into the afternoon, holding around 4-5ft Tuesday before easing back from 3-4ft Wednesday.

The Mornington Peninsula looks to be in the 6ft+ range Monday morning, building to 6-8ft into the afternoon, holding Tuesday and easing Wednesday.

Conditions will be great for the Surf Coast Monday with a W/NW breeze holding out until mid-afternoon again, while Tuesday will see local offshores favouring all breaks ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Wednesday is likely to see similar conditions early to Tuesday before winds swing more north-east to east. We'll have another look at this Monday though.

Have a great weekend, and go the Crows!!