Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st September)

Best Days: Keen surfers on the beaches tomorrow, later Sunday Surf Coast, Monday Surf Coast, experienced surfers Tuesday and Wednesday in protected breaks, Thursday

Recap

Improving conditions across all locations yesterday with a variable wind on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves, cleaning up through the day. The Mornington Peninsula was a bit average early and best late morning into the middle of the day before sea breezes kicked in.

This morning the swell was much smaller with clean 2ft waves across the Surf Coast beaches and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend and next week (Sep 2 - 8)

Tomorrow isn't looking too flash with the swell becoming tiny to flat on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula will be small with inconsistent 2ft to sometimes 3ft sets. Conditions will be clean all day with a persistent N'ly breeze so try and avoid the morning high tide.

Sunday morning will start similar in size, but an inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell is due to build into the afternoon.

This swell was generated in our far swell window between Heard Island and WA, with good but infrequent sets due to hit 3ft at swell magnets on the Surf Coast into the mid-late afternoon, with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds will be best for the Surf Coast with a fresh and gusty NW tending W/NW breeze.

As we move into Sunday afternoon and evening we'll see the first frontal system under the influence of a pronounced node of the Long Wave Trough impacting the region.

This node is forecast to stall across the south-east corner of the country through early next week before moving slowly east from Wednesday.

What we'll see is persistent cold, windy frontal systems being aimed into the state and through our swell windows.

The first system will project from the polar shelf, south-west of WA up and into South Australia over the weekend before moving slowly across us Monday.

This will generate a large W/SW groundswell that's due to build Monday and really strengthen late afternoon.

The morning looks to be around 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, strengthening through the day and reaching 6ft and 8ft+ respectively on the sets late in the day.

Strong W/NW winds will favour protected spots all day.

Tuesday will be larger as a very strong S/SW groundswell fills in across the states beaches, generated by a embedded fetch of severe-gale S/SW winds being projected towards us Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

We should see the Surf Coast kick to an easy 8ft+ through the day, with 10-12ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula as swing from a fresh to strong W/NW'ly around to the W/SW into the afternoon.

A very slow drop in size is expected Wednesday, but large levels of S/SW groundswell will persist across the state owing to a stationary fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW winds on the polar shelf.

This will keep large amounts of S/SW groundswell hitting us Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning.

At this stage we're looking at easing 8ft surf on the Surf Coast Wednesday with 10ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula with SW winds (W/NW early around Torquay).

A return to W/NW winds is then due Thursday.

We'll have to have another look at the swells from Wednesday though, as the models are still shifting around regarding the structure of the secondary fronts. Have a great weekend!