New swell tomorrow with variable winds, beaches Sunday morning. Larger swells next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 7th October)
Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow, east of Melbourne Sunday morning, later Monday Surf Coast, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast
Recap
Pumping Surf Coast waves yesterday with a strong new W/SW tending SW groundswell filling in from a strengthening mid-latitude low develop late in our swell window.
These swells are always tricky to gauge size wise, but this one seems to have come in a touch above forecast which is always a good thing.
Conditions were great on the reefs all day across the Surf Coast, with selected locations to the east firing.
A drop in swell has been seen today from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft east of Melbourne under fresh offshores. Winds have since shifted more westerly ahead of a change due early afternoon.
This weekend and next week (Oct 8 - 14)
Our new W/SW groundswell due tomorrow is coming along nicely, with a relatively strong and broad mid-latitude frontal progression that's now to our south-west generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds.
This swell should come in at a good consistent 3ft if not a touch bigger most of tomorrow on the Surf Coast, with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back from 2-3ft and 4-5ft respectively Sunday morning.
Winds are now looking not too bad all day tomorrow, with a change moving through early tomorrow having no real strength.
This will result in moderate but rapidly abating onshore SW tending SE winds across most spots. Torquay should see an early W/NW'ly before the weak onshore develops.
Sunday will be best on the beaches with a strengthening N/NE tending N'ly wind, tending more N/NW into the afternoon.
Now, as talked about the last few updates, a vigorous mid-latitude low is forecast to develop under the country during Sunday, with a broad fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds due to develop directly south-west of us on Sunday evening, pushing closer while maintaining strength Monday morning, followed by a SW fetch of the backside of the low as it continues east.
What this will result in is building W/SW windswell through Monday ahead of a larger kick in groundswell later in the day, peaking Tuesday morning. The secondary S/SW groundswell should arrive later Tuesday, peak overnight and ease Wednesday.
Size wise, the Surf Coast should build to 3-4ft later Monday, with a peak Tuesday morning to the 4-6ft range, with Wednesday easing from 4-5ft.
The Mornington Peninsula will reach 6-8ft by dark Monday with large 8-10ft sets on Tuesday, easing from 6-8ft Wednesday.
Fresh to strong W/NW winds are due all day Monday, with W/NW tending W/SW breezes Tuesday. Wednesday morning should be clean again on the Surf Coast reefs with a W/NW offshore, tending SW into the afternoon.
We'll take another look at this Monday though. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Morning Craigs,
I was wondering if you could clear up a quick few questions I had regarding Torquays surf report this morning (Saturday 8th).
My first question is that the report is saying "Winds are almost offshore mostly west but the wind is tending more SW onshore". So technically would that mean that the winds are actually crossshore tending onshore? I was all excited when it said almost offshore but was a tad disappointed when I saw the real thing. Though I do really appreciate the forecasts, this one seemed like you were trying to up grade the whole thing (like when I bought my new Ford Ranger and the sales man was trying to get me to upgrade hahaha).
Second question is regarding the surfability factor. With words like "certainly surfable" and "quite rideable" in the forecast, my surfing juices start to flow. But then that is all contradicted when you write " it's a little full and fat, and set waves are quite inconsistent" and "If you can ignore the slight surface wobble you'll pick up some OK rides". So me probably like most other good surfers out there really want to get barrels when we can and, well, watching the Quik Pro in France last night even I can see when the waves are full, flat and inconsistent. (and winkis looked way worse than France this morning) I mean even Kelly Slater didn't get a barrel in his heat, (kinda a bummer he lost I think) so maybe as a suggestion you can just say that the waves have barrels or they don't have barrels. Make deciphering the reports a little easier for people who aren't totally clued into the proper surf report lingo yet.
And my final question is regarding when you have written, " it's not worth too much highway mileage". In the future, if its possible, could you add some actual numbers to this. Like maybe in 25km brackets. As an example you could say that its not worth too much highway mileage 50-75km would be the most you would want to travel for a surf today. I do believe this would really help with the already really great reports.
Thanks heaps Craigs, hopefully there will be some barrels sometime again soon,
Yeeew,
Ralf
It's all relative. Enjoy
Ralf i take it you live in the city and you do not know how to read the surf and you only surf weekend easy way if the wind is not nw all day do not come down and if you are going mornington way and the wind is not north or n east the same and have a look at the webcams to see if people are out surfing and look at the current weather wind before you leave like today was nw west most off the night but bye 6am was more sw wind
Ralf, Craig doesn't do the surf report - each local reporter has their own flavour of writing, and everyone interprets the surf a little differently. And, conditions can change throughout the day too - the report is a snapshot of what conditions were at that particular time.
Hey therrmalben...
Oh, thanks, I thought craig did the reports for Torquay. Whoops.
I get that everyone would write the reports all differently because everyone must see waves differently depending on how good they surf. I was just confused because the report seemed to say that it was offshore, westerly and almost onshore at the same time. And I know that it can be offshore in the mornings then go onshore in the afternoons, seems to do that lots in summer time. All I was saying is that that particular wind report seemed very confusing. Offshore, cross shore and onshore haha. Maybe its just me but I was confused.
Looks like the start of this week could be good. Lets hope the surf is on and more off shore than cross shore haha.
Yeew
Ralf
Pretty sure Ralph is taking the piss?
Pretty sure Ralph is on the piss :-))
Your probably right hako. We see this happen at least once every 3-6months.
Hey hako and Vicboy6,
Well, I had a few shandys when those doggies won thats for sure.
Yeah I've been overseas the last few months which has sucked. I've been working for Penguin books (which is kind of strange in this digital age but yes, books still do exist) haha.
So annoyed to have had to spend so much time away because it seems as though this has been one amazing winter. I've seen so many good photos of Winkis and Bells form the last few months. I hope you boys managed to get some really good waves and barrels this winter. Man, did you see that video of Adam Robertson. Yeew he was ripping and getting so barreled. So good to watch.
The next few days could be pumping...hope you guys manage to find some waves. I might be able to sneak in a quick surf or two if I'm lucky I hope. Got a good board for winkis now so wanting to see how it goes.
Yeeew,
Ralf
Hope you have a good time at Winkis mate, the more people like you out there the better.
YipYip
Appa !!
Looking nice across 13th this AM.
Learning to surf in all types of conditions makes you better at the elusive art-form of wave riding...the chase for a perfect wave is part of the thrill of it all.