Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 23rd September)

Best Days: Swell magnets Saturday morning, Surf Coast keen surfers Saturday morning, selected spots east of Melbourne Monday morning and keen surfers west of Melbourne, Surf Coast later Tuesday and Wednesday both coasts

Recap

Terrible conditions yesterday with a fresh to strong onshore wind and moderate sized swell, while today was much cleaner and improving across all locations with a variable wind. The swell is smaller though and back to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend (Sep 24 - 25)

There won't much surf left across the state tomorrow, so you'll have to head to swell magnets during the morning for any chance of a decent wave.

Easing 1-1.5ft sets are likely on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington peninsula should offer easing 3ft sets. Conditions will be excellent for exposed breaks though with local offshore winds, tending N/NE for the most part.

Our inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Sunday is still on track, with it being generated in our far swell window in the south-east Indian Ocean.

There'll be long waits between sets but exposed breaks like 13th Beach should see infrequent 2-3ft sets, smaller in around Torquay, with 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A W/NW breeze is expected across the Torquay region Sunday morning, W/SW everywhere else and this will create clean conditions in protected spots, but the swell will be small here.

Next week onwards (Sep 26 onwards)

Easing surf is still expected on Monday but with cleaner conditions across both regions with a N/NW tending NW breeze. Small easing 2ft+ waves are due on the Surf Coast and 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A small to moderate sized and inconsistent SW groundswell is due into Tuesday afternoon, generated by a polar low that's currently south-west of WA. We may see the Surf Coast increase to an inconsistent 2-3ft through the afternoon and W/NW breezes will keep conditions relatively clean.

Later in the week we may see some larger W/SW groundswell. Firstly a moderate sized W/SW groundswell is on the cards for later Wednesday and Thursday morning but this looks to be overridden by a swell generated by a deep and powerful mid-latitude low forming in the Bight mid next week. The models are still divergent on how far north this low will sit, and this will be the clincher for size across our coast. If too far north the swell will be too west, so check back here Monday for an update on this system. Have a great weekend!