Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th September)

Best Days: Both coasts Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday

Recap

An average start to the weekend with onshore waves across most coasts as a morning W/NW'ly failed to develop across the Surf Coast.

Sunday however was much better with clean 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, building steadily through the afternoon as a mix of new swells filled in. Conditions remained good all day west of Melbourne with W/NW breezes. The Mornington Peninsula was larger but average.

Today the strong W/SW groundswell from the fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales late last week has filled in and peaked with excellent 4-5ft surf on the Surf Coast and large 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. The swell should remain around the same size most of the day as a reinforcing pulse fills in, and winds will tend lighter from the W/NW.

This week (Sep 6 - 9)

Today's mix of strong W/SW groundswells will ease off slowly through tomorrow, under favourable offshore winds across both coasts. The Surf Coast should see N/NW offshores and easing sets from around 4ft, with N/NE winds to the east and 6ft sets. Weak onshore winds are due into the afternoon but the surf should remain fun.

The easing trend will be halted into Wednesday as a reinforcing W/SW groundswell fills in from an intense but east-southeast tracking mid-latitude low under the country.

This should keep 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula as winds tend more N/NE across all locations. This will create great conditions on the Surf Coast beaches, and locations east of Melbourne with a bit more east in the wind into the afternoon.

Come Thursday the swell will drop away steadily with a gusty N'ly tending N/NW breeze.

A low point is due Friday morning and with W/NW winds, it's probably a good rest day.

This weekend onwards (Sep 10 onwards)

Later Friday and more so into the weekend some long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due.

The first pulse will be generated by a strong polar front developing in the Heard Island region and pushing up towards WA today and tomorrow.

An initial fetch of W/SW gales will be generated through our far western swell window, followed by a secondary push under WA during the middle of the week.

Two pulses of W/SW groundswell are due, maybe arriving late Friday but Saturday is when the peak is due but only to an inconsistent 3ft at swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A stronger and better aligned polar front firing up south-west of WA later this week will generate a larger W/SW groundswell for Monday and this looks to be more in the 3-5ft range and with onshore winds, but we'll have a closer look at this and follow up swells for next week on Wednesday.

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