Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 31st August)

Best Days: Thursday Surf Coast, possibly both coasts Friday morning winds pedning, Surf Coast Sunday afternoon, Monday and Tuesday morning

Recap

A little slow going at first yesterday morning with the new S/SW groundswell being a touch delayed, but we saw strong and clean 3ft sets pushing into the Surf Coast through the day across the beaches, while the Mornington Peninsula hovered around the 4ft range.

Today the swell was a bit smaller but still there with inconsistent 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves to the east.

This week and weekend (Sep 1 - 4)

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Our good pulse of inconsistent but long-period SW groundswell due tomorrow is tracking along, with infrequent 3-4ft sets due across the Surf Coast and 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions will be best through the morning with an offshore NW wind across the Surf Coast, giving into a shallow S/SW change around midday. In saying this the afternoon should still be fun on the Surf Coast.

Friday is looking a little dicey, with a light SE'ly due across both coasts, increasing through the day. There's an outside chance for variable breezes early, but keep an eye on local observations and the surfcams.

A slow drop in swell is due, easing from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

The surf should continue to drop through Saturday and again conditions are looking dicey with S/SW breezes across most spots, possibly variable early around Torquay.

Now our strong pulses of groundswell due from Sunday are still on track, with an upgrade in Monday's swell.

Firstly, Sunday's swell won't be too amazing, generated by a distant and weakening polar low generating a fetch of severe-gale pre-frontal W/NW winds, and post-frontal strong to gale-force W/SW winds.

Only small 2ft waves are due on the Surf Coast through the morning, 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula with a W/NW breeze.

Into the afternoon though an increase to 3ft is expected on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on them Mornington Peninsula as winds hold from the W/NW.

Next week onwards (Sep 5 onwards)

Of greater importance is the development of two separate and much stronger polar lows south-west of WA later this week and through the weekend.

An initial fetch of severe-gale W/NW gales will set in motion an active sea state for a more elongated fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds to move over, generating a large and powerful W/SW groundswell for Monday, filling in through the day and peaking Monday evening.

The Surf Coast should build to a good 4-6ft through the afternoon on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing back from 3-5ft and 6-8ft respectively Tuesday morning.

Conditions will be great on the Surf Coast with offshore NW winds Monday and NW tending S/SW winds Tuesday. Lets have another look at this swell Friday though.