Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 29th August)

Best Days: Both coasts tomorrow, Wednesday, Surf Coast Thursday, both coasts Friday morning (if winds variable), Surf Coast each morning from the weekend

Recap

The weekend started off as expected with a slight drop back in size across the Surf Coast back to 2-3ft with offshore winds, 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into Sunday a new pulse of SW groundswell came in above expectations, even though it was only a mid-period number. The polar front generating this swell must of tracked in a captured fetch motion towards us, providing a good 3-5ft of swell for the Surf Coast Sunday morning, with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A gradual drop in size was seen through the day, back further into this morning.

This week (Aug 30 – Sep 2)

Tomorrow's pulse of new S/SW groundswell has been downgraded slightly further, with the polar front generating it forming later in our swell window and not being as intense as forecast last week.

At least the size will be more favourable for the beaches east of Melbourne, with the swell due to come in through the morning to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and the 5ft range on the Mornington Peninsula, easing through the day, smaller into Wednesday.

Winds will be moderate to fresh from the N/NE most of tomorrow, favouring the beaches across both coasts, with N/NW tending W/NW winds Wednesday (N/NE early east of Melbourne).

Our good pulse of SW groundswell for Thursday is still on track, with a vigorous polar low firing up in the Heard Island region, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds through our swell window.

This system is currently weakening along the polar shelf, with a secondary weaker fetch of NW gales moving in just behind.

A good SW groundswell is due, peaking Thursday to an inconsistent 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula with N/NW tending S/SW winds.

A slow easing trend is then due Friday with a light S/SE'ly, possibly variable early.

This weekend onwards (Sep 3 onwards)

A long-range and inconsistent pulse of W/SW groundswell is due Saturday afternoon followed by better energy from Sunday.

The first pulse isn't likely to be above the easing swell from the end of the week, but Sunday's will be generated by a large polar frontal progression firing up in the southern Indian Ocean. A broad fetch of pre-frontal and post-frontal severe-gale W/NW to W/SW winds will generate two initial long-range and inconsistent W/SW swells, but as this low moves south of WA, a better fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds will generate a more consistent and bigger SW swell for Sunday afternoon.

This will be then followed by a good reinforcing W/SW groundswell for Monday from an elongated fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds, but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday. Size wise we're probably looking at the Surf Coast building to 3-5ft Sunday afternoon, holding Monday but with less than ideal winds from the south-west. More on this Wednesday.