Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th May)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Thursday, Friday, Saturday morning, Sunday and Monday mornings

Recap

The weekend played out pretty much to plan with tiny to flat conditions Saturday morning, with a steady increase in size observed from late morning/midday with step-ladder sets pushing quickly from 2-3ft to 3-4ft to 5ft+ through the afternoon.

Late in the day south magnets saw 6ft+ sets and with favourable W/SW offshore winds across most locations.

This pulse eased back through yesterday, with OK conditions early, average through the day. A late new pulse of S/SE swell provided fun waves for the late session, while this morning we saw good large sets from the S/SE with SW-S/SW winds.

South magnets were hanging in at 6ft, but a stronger SE pulse filled in through the mid-late morning, offering solid sets at more open beaches.

Looking at the transition of the Tasman Low over the weekend, and our fresh SE pulse has been pulled forward a little to later today and this evening, but more on this below.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (May 15 – 20)

These notes will be brief as Ben’s on holidays.

Yesterday a broad fetch of strong S/SE winds were positioned in our southern and south-eastern swell windows, with a slight intensification of SE gales projected towards our region through the afternoon and evening.

This has produced a stronger SE pulse that should kick near dark today and peak overnight likely to 6ft to occasionally 8ft, easing back through tomorrow from 4-6ft early and then further from the 3-4ft range Wednesday morning. The Hunter will see larger sets through the morning.

Conditions tomorrow morning are still looking great with an W/SW offshore, but a weak front will push up from the south through the day bringing a S/SE change early afternoon and a fresh pulse of S/SE swell for Wednesday afternoon to 3ft+ across south facing beaches, mixed in with the easing SE swell.

With this, Wednesday mornings winds are average and fresh from the S/SW-S through the morning and S/SE into the afternoon.

Both the SE and S/SE swells should ease through Thursday, but a new S'ly groundswell is due across south magnets, produce by the parent low linked to the weak front pushing through Tuesday.

A polar fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds south-southwest of Tassie this afternoon and early tomorrow morning.

We should see south magnets continuing around 3-4ft Thursday morning with a W/NW offshore (variable into the afternoon), easing off into the afternoon and smaller 2ft Friday morning.

This low point will only be temporary, as we're expected to see a large and powerful long-period S'ly groundswell building across south facing beaches through the day.

The large groundswell is being under forecast by the wave models, with it being generated by a very impressive polar low over the coming days.

We'll see this polar low form south of the country, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds in our far southern swell window.

The low will project favourably east-northeast up towards New Zealand while weakening slightly Wednesday and then stalling slightly Thursday.

The long-period fore-runners upwards of 20s are due to arrive Friday morning, with the bulk of the swell pushing in through the mid-late afternoon, kicking to 4-6ft across south facing beaches by dark.

Now these long-period S'ly groundswells always do funky things and focus into some places and not into others, to expect to do a bit of driving if trying to maximise the swell potential off this system.

Winds are good Friday morning with a straight W'ly offshore, but a weak S'ly change is due into the afternoon as the S'ly groundswell really muscles in.

Saturday morning will be clean again with a light W/SW offshore as the S'ly groundswell eases from the 3-4ft range (larger across the Hunter), slowed by the stalling nature of the low south-west of New Zealand.

An afternoon S'ly change will likely bring some new S'ly windswell Sunday and larger groundswell Monday with morning SW winds, but more on this Wednesday.