Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 5th August)

Best Days: Sat: fun, easing S/SE swell with mainly good winds. Sun: solid pulse of new S/SE swell with light variable winds. Mon: easing surf with offshores. Tues: small pulse of inconsistent S/SE swell with offshore winds.

Recap: Thursday was terrible in most locations with gusty S/SE winds across most coasts (excluding the Illawarra) and a large S/SE swell around 4-6ft at south facing beaches. Today we’ve seen a similar size range, but winds swung light W’ly overnight across some beaches, resulting in cleaner conditions. Most coasts saw gusty S’lies up until the hour or so before dawn, so it’s taken a lot longer for conditions to improve but this afternoon has offered fun chunky beach breaks in many regions. 

This weekend (Saturday 6th - Sunday 7th August)

Looks like a great weekend of waves ahead. 

Saturday should be pretty good on the balance; synoptic winds will remain out of the south thanks to a front passing through the eastern Tasman Sea that’ll just clip the coast, but wind strengths won’t be too strong, and we should see a period of early W’ly winds in most regions. 

Surf size will trend down from today but we’re still looking at 3-5ft waves across south facing beaches early morning, with smaller surf elsewhere. Expect an easing trend throughout the day.

On Sunday morning, a new S/SE groundswell will push through the region, related to the aforementioned front (which tracked through the south-eastern Tasman Sea last night). This swell is expected to push into the Far South Coast very late Saturday - probably too late to be of benefit to anywhere - so Sunday morning should see the peak size across most coastal regions. 

Wind strengths within the front ended up being a little lower than modelled so surf size will probably be closer to the lower end of Wednesday’s estimated (i.e. 4-5ft rather than 4-6ft) however I wouldn’t be surprised if a handful of reliable south facing stretches did rake in the occasional 5-6ft bomb.

As usual, beaches not open the south will be much smaller.

Conditions are looking very good for much of Sunday with mainly light variable winds so there should be good surf all day. A slight easing trend is possible into the afternoon.

Next week (8th August onwards)

The first half of next week is a little complicated on the swell charts.

Monday morning is showing a small but long period (relatively speaking) new S/SE swell in the 12 second range arriving before dawn.

To be honest, I’m not quite sure where this is originating from. It could be a distant polar low well to the SE of New Zealand that I haven’t picked up in previous model runs and/or hindcasts, or it could be the models poorly resolving the direction of a minor long range SW swell (due to the dominant S/SE swell direction of the previous few days). Both possibilties are certainly not unheard of.

However the models also have a second new pulse of small E/SE swell arriving during the morning, originating from a burst of easterly gales out of western Cook Strait (the body of water seperating New Zealand's North and South Islands) this evening - see chart below.

This fetch only lasts a brief while inside our swell window so we'll see just a minor flush of inconsistent E/SE energy from it, perhaps some sets in the 2-3ft range. 

Otherwise, let’s assume Monday will mainly see easing swell from Sunday’s pulse; say 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches early morning, easing to 2-3ft by lunchtime. Hopefully the E/SE swell will keep non-south facing beaches active with some fun waves. I’ll keep an eye on the obs and if something more significant develops from this system I’ll mention it in the comments below over the weekend.

Either way, the secondary polar low I mentioned in Wednesday's notes - moving through the south-eastern Tasman Sea on Sunday - will generate a small renewal of S/SE swell for Tuesday. I don’t think there’ll be much size to it (occ 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches), and most other locations will be very small.

Local winds look good too on Monday and Tuesday, mainly light and variable trend offshore. So it'll be nice and clean on top.

Wednesday should offer a period of small residual conditions with freshening offshore winds as a front approached from the south-west. This front is expected to develop a strong S/SW fetch off the South Coast on Thursday that’ll generate a late afternoon short range S’ly swell, before peaking overnight and easing into Friday. No major size or quality is expected at this stage; sets of around 4ft are expected at south facing beaches.

Elsewhere, a small low is expected to form across the North Island of New Zealand early next week, exhibiting a strong E’ly fetch existing western Cook Strait. This doesn’t look particularly exciting right now but is worth watching for a possible small pulse of E'ly swell late Wednesday or (more likely) Thursday, probably an inconsistent 2-3ft at best.

Looking further ahead and there are no major weather systems on the cards for the end of next week which suggests we cold be looking at small clean beaches for the adjacent weekend. I’ll have more on that on Monday.