Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th March)

Best Days: No great days due to generally low swells and funky winds.

Recap: Fun if somewhat inconsistent E/NE swell that’s hung in and around the 3-4ft range both yesterday and today. Early light winds freshened from the N/NE both days but we saw a brief period of variable winds around early afternoon today, ahead of a shallow S/SE change mid-afternoon. No sign of a small small long period S’ly groundswell expected to arrive late (although observations in Tasmania yesterday maintain confidence that we’ll see something into Thursday AM).

This week (Mar 19 - 20)

Overnight we’re likely to see this current E/NE swell ease back in size and strength.

Most open beaches should see wave heights in and around the 2ft mark on Thursday (being leftover E/NE groundswell and a small distant S’ly groundswell) but initially fresh S/SW winds will cause some problems at south facing beaches (and in the Hunter). However, these winds will ease and tend more SW through the morning so there should be some OK beach breaks across the region. By the afternoon we’re likely to see light variable winds tending onshore. 

Friday looks pretty ordinary with small residual leftovers in the morning (1-2ft tops at open beaches) and early light winds ahead of a gusty S’ly change due in around lunchtime, perhaps a little earlier (the South Coast will see this change early in the day). 

These gusty southerly winds will whip up a late increase in choppy short range S’ly swell at south facing beaches (perhaps some 3ft+ sets) but quality will be low, and it’ll be very small at this beaches offering cleaner conditions under the southerly breeze.

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

Still no great news for the weekend. A ridge pushing in behind Friday’s change will maintain fresh SE winds across the coast on Saturday and although there’ll be plenty of surf (3ft+ open beaches, mainly south facing) there won’t be many locations offering protection from this airstream.

As for Sunday, winds will veer to the east and surf size will pull back a fraction - but there’s still unlikely to be many options out of the wind.

So, two days with plenty of surf but plenty of chop. You’ll get wet but you won’t be writing home about it.

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

Nothing major for early next week. The small SE swell from a cut-off NZ low (due Monday) has been downgraded and delayed until Tuesday (inconsistent 2ft sets) so Monday will probably see small residual leftovers and light winds freshening from the NE.

Another gusty southerly change is then expected on Tuesday afternoon that’ll probably whip up another inconsequential short range south swell for late afternoon or perhaps early Wednesday. The early session should have some OK waves with light winds and the small aforementioned SE swell.

Otherwise, the primary area of interest in the long term is the Tropical South Pacific, which is expected to spawn a tropical low just east of Fiji from Friday through the weekend, potentially developing it into a Tropical Cyclone. This system looks like it’ll be part of a broadening but ultimately stationary fetch in our far NE swell window, with the resulting E/NE swell likely to start influencing our coast mid-late next week (i.e. from about Wednesday onwards). However, the main energy from this swell probably won’t arrive until the end of the week - holding through into the weekend - and even then I think we’ll be lucky to see much more than inconsistent 2-3ft sets at open beaches. 

Nevertheless, this is already a small upgrade since Monday so I’ll revise these notes on Friday - hopefully with a further increase on the cards!