Southern Tasmanian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday March 28th)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning beginners, Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small to tiny tomorrow with N/NW winds ahead of a strong S/SW change around midday
• Moderate sized midperiod SW swell Sun with mod-fresh S/SE tending SE winds
• Moderate + sized SW swell for later Mon, peaking Tue, easing Wed
• Fresh to strong S/SE winds Mon/Tue
• Easing swell Wed with variable tending SE winds
• Building W/SW swell later week, strong next weekend

Recap

Wednesday’s swell eased back from a clean 2ft to occasionally 3ft yesterday morning, smaller today and easing from 2ft.

This weekend and next week (Mar 29 - Apr 4)

Tomorrow is due to start small to tiny and conditions will be clean with a N/NW offshore but a trough will bring a strong S/SW change around midday along with a mix of building windswell and new mid-period swell.

The mid-period swell is being generated by a polar front projecting up towards us today, with a great fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds and 2ft to occasionally 3ft of swell for Sunday.

Unfortunately conditions will be poor thanks to the trough merging with an inland trough and deepening low north-east of us, with moderate to fresh S/SE winds expected to shift SE through the day.

The low will unfortunately linger through early next week, maintaining fresh to strong S/SE winds Monday/Tuesday, spoiling a good SW groundswell that’s due, generated by a great, elongated fetch of gale to severe-gale W-W/NW winds pushing through our south-western swell window (strongest into tomorrow and Sunday morning). 

An extended, moderate + sized SW groundswell is due from later Monday but more so Tuesday, peaking to a strong 4ft across Clifton, easing back Wednesday from 3ft as winds start to relax and tend more variable.

Longer term, a strengthening and robust polar frontal progression pushing up and across us looks to generate some building W/SW swell from late week and more so next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!