Southern Tasmanian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 31st)

Best Days: Monday morning, Tuesday morning, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of tiny W/SW groundswell and better mid-period W/SW swell for the PM tomorrow, easing Sun
• Light-mod NE tending stronger E/NE winds Sat
• Dawn N tending weak S winds by mid-AM Sun, variable ahead of late sea breezes
• New W/SW groundswell Mon with moderate N/NE tending strong E/NE winds
• Easing swell Tue with gusty but easing N/NE tending stronger S/SE winds
• Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW swell building Wed PM, peaking Thu AM with S/SW tending S/SE winds Wed, N/NE tending strong E/NE Thu 

Recap

Wednesday’s swell was still a fun 2ft yesterday morning with great conditions across Clifton and variable sea breezes, clean again today but tiny.

This week and weekend (Feb 1 - 7)

Tomorrow morning looks tiny, but into the afternoon a fresh pulse of mid-period W/SW swell is due to fill in generated by a weak but elongated frontal progression that moved under the country the last couple of days.

Inconsistent sets to 2ft are due tomorrow afternoon but with strong E/NE sea breezes, easing from 1-2ft on Sunday with early light N winds before a shallow S change moves in mid-morning.

The weak nature of the change will likely just see winds become variable before late sea breezes kick in.

Moving into Monday, and our fresh pulse of W/SW groundswell is on track, with a tight but strong low due to generate a short-lived burst of gale to severe-gale W’ly winds through our western swell windows.

The wind strength should see the swell kick to a good 2ft to occasionally 3ft Monday morning, smaller into the afternoon and then fading 1-2ft into Tuesday.

Local conditions look best in the morning with a moderate N/NE offshore, stronger E/NE into the afternoon with Tuesday seeing gusty N/NE winds, easing ahead of a strong S/SW change.

Wednesday morning looks tiny and onshore, while our next pulse of swell will arrive from the W/SW into the afternoon, spawning off a strong but weakening polar low that’s currently in the Heard Island region.

The low will weaken on approach to the country but maintain a healthy swell producing fetch and this looks to translate to the most size across our region.

It’ll be inconsistent but should build Wednesday afternoon and peak Thursday morning to an inconsistent 2ft to occasionally 3ft across Clifton with morning offshores. We’ll confirm this on Monday. Have a great weekend!