Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 2nd November)

Best Days: Beginners tomorrow morning, protected spots Thursday, Friday, Monday

Recap

Clean, tiny waves for beginners Saturday, a touch bigger Sunday but with bumpy conditions.

Today the size has held and conditions are ideal for beginners again.

This week and weekend (Nov 3 - 8)

Tomorrow will become tiny to flat and only surfable for desperate beginners, even smaller Wednesday morning ahead of a late increase in new W/SW groundswell that should peak Thursday.

This swell, discussed through last week is still being generated by a strong, slow moving polar low in our medium-range swell window.

A good fetch of gales are being slowly projected east through our western swell window, with the low weakening tomorrow, leaving the swell to travel towards us.

It'll be inconsistent but we should see 2-3ft sets across Clifton Thursday, while a secondary weaker fetch of W'ly winds pushing in and under us later week.

This should produce a reinforcing SW swell to 2-3ft on Friday, followed by an even stronger system firing up Thursday evening and Friday. Stronger gale-force W/SW winds are forecast through our swell window, generating a larger SW groundswell for Saturday that should come in at a consistent 4ft or so, easing slowly Sunday from 3-4ft.

Looking at the local winds and Thursday is dicey with a trough moving through Wednesday evening leaving lingering fresh to strong W/SW winds early Thursday, possibly tending W'ly for a period, but Friday will be better with N/NW offshores, shifting W/NW through the day.

Saturday unfortunately looks onshore with strong SW winds as the polar front linked to the new swell moves through, with lingering S'ly winds Sunday.

Cleaner conditions are due next week as the swell slowly eases, but check back here Wednesday for more on this.