Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th October)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday and Saturday mornings for beginners, Monday and Tuesday

Recap

A small W/SW swell and lumpy conditions Saturday, with more variable winds and similar sized surf Sunday. Today the surf has dropped in size with variable winds again.

This week and weekend (Oct 6 - 11)

Looking at the coming days and we've got our moderate sized WSW tending SW groundswell on the cards, generated over the weekend and into this morning by a healthy polar front.

A fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds moved through our western and then south-western swell window, with it passing under us today.

We should see building surf this afternoon ahead of a peak tomorrow to 4ft across Clifton on the sets into the afternoon, a bit smaller earlier. The swell should then ease Wednesday from the 2-3ft range.

Local winds tomorrow will be favourable and light NW, giving into SE sea breezes, and then N/NW on Wednesday morning before SE sea breezes kick in again.

There may be a small 1-2ft wave leftover Thursday and a deepening low to our north will bring strengthening NE tending E/NE winds before shifting N/NW and W/NW on Friday as the low dips south-east across us.

A weak pulse of W/SW windswell may be seen late Friday, fading Saturday from the backside of the low but it doesn't look to top 1-1.5ft at this stage.

There's nothing major on the cards for the weekend but beginners should find tiny, clean peelers while a better W/SW groundswell is on the cards for Monday.

The swell will be generated by a strong and broad polar frontal system firing up east of the Heard Island region, generating a great fetch of W/SW gales in our medium-range western swell window.

It's forecast to weaken while approaching closer later this week, with the swell due to arrive Monday and offer 2-3ft sets across Clifton. We may see a reinforcing and similar size swell for Tuesday, but more on this next update.