Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th May)

Best Days: Beginners tomorrow, Sunday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday beginners

Recap

Wednesday afternoon's swell eased back from a good and clean 2-3ft yesterday, small to tiny and clean today, ideal for beginners.

This weekend and next week (May 16 - 22)

The surf is expected to remain tiny tomorrow and to 1-1.5ft, but later in the day and more so Sunday, we've got an upgrade in the W/SW swell due.

A strengthening fetch of gale-force W/NW winds through our swell window last night and this morning should generate a kick in size later tomorrow to 1-2ft and an easy 2ft+ on Sunday.

The swell should start to ease later in the afternoon, back to 1-2ft on Monday.

The models are showing a kick in size Monday evening and Tuesday, but this is from an incorrect mixing of swells with a long-period W/SW groundswell that's linked to this being generated too far north of our swell window and south-west of WA.

Instead tiny and inconsistent 1-1.5ft sets are due later Monday and Tuesday morning, fading thereafter.

Conditions tomorrow should be good all day with a N/NW tending variable breeze, N/NW winds Sunday morning ahead of a early-mid afternoon S/SE change. Monday looks clean again with N/NW tending E/NE breezes, similar Tuesday.

Longer term it looks like we'll see some better developments through our south-western and southern swell windows mid-week as a strong polar low forms.

The models still diverge a little surrounding this but we're likely to see some decent swell late week with initially suss winds, better Friday. More on this in Monday's update though. Have a great weekend!