Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 18th November)

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Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning

Recap

Small clean 1-1.5ft waves yesterday morning, fading through the day leaving flat conditions this morning.

This weekend and next week (Nov 19 - 25)

Satellite observations have come in regarding the very intense low that fired up south-west of us, and the readings are quite impressive.

50-55kt core winds were aimed through our south-western swell window for a short period, and this has generated a strong SW groundswell pulse for tomorrow.

I'm sticking with a peak around 2-3ft through the middle of the day/early afternoon but there's a chance for the odd bigger bomb looking at the ASCAT readings.

The swell will ease back overnight, with an inconsistent W/SW groundswell keeping 2ft sets hitting Clifton.

Later in the day though, the new S'ly groundswell talked about on Wednesday is due to arrive ahead of a peak overnight.

This will be generated by a fetch fetch of polar S/SE gales wrapping around the base of the low generating tomorrow's swell, with a strong kick in size to 3-4ft due by dark Sunday, easing from a similar size Monday morning.

Winds tomorrow should hopefully hold from the W/NW all day, with NW offshores Sunday ahead of SE sea breezes.

A N/NW tending fresh N/NE breeze is then due Monday as the S'ly swell eases.

Tuesday morning is expected to be smaller, fading from 1-2ft with an early W/NW breeze.

Longer term a deepening mid-latitude low tracking south-east through our swell window early next week will aim a quick burst of W/SW gales through our western swell window Tuesday, kicking up a late increase in swell to 1-2ft, easing back from a similar size Wednesday but more from the SW. There also may be a new S'ly swell in the water from the backside of the low, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!