Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 19th October)

Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning

Recap

Clean but tiny waves through Saturday ahead of a late kick in new W/SW groundswell which peaked Sunday to 2-3ft with morning offshores ahead S/SE sea breezes.

Today the swell was smaller and easing from 2ft with morning offshores before S/SE sea breezes kicked in.

This week (Oct 20 – 23)

Tiny waves are due over the coming days ahead of a good pulse of W/SW groundswell through Thursday.

This is currently being generated by a strong polar front to the south-west of WA, with a fetch of W/SW gales due to be projected east-northeast through our swell window over the coming days.

An onshore change linked with this frontal progression is due Wednesday morning and this will kick up a messy windswell through the day to 2ft or so but with strong SW winds.

Into Thursday the groundswell proper should fill in, coming in at a good 2-3ft through the morning, peaking through the day to a stronger 3ft.

Winds will be best early and from the W/NW before shifting W/SW through the morning. There's a late chance for a swing back to W/NW winds but we'll review this Wednesday.

Come Friday the swell should back away but 2-3ft sets are expected early under NW offshores.

This weekend onwards (Oct 24 onwards)

A further drop in size is due through Saturday but an inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell on the backside of the progression linked to Thursday's pulse should keep infrequent 2ft sets hitting Clifton through the morning.

Sunday is due to be smaller, and a small S/SE groundswell showing on the forecast charts looks to be insignificant as the fetch of S/SE gales generating it are too small in scope.

Longer term some new SW groundswell is on the cards for early next week but the models diverge on the synoptic setup across the south-east of the country, so you'll have to check back here Wednesday for an update on this.